Future changes in convective storms across Africa in new km-scale climate scenarios

新的公里级气候情景下非洲对流风暴的未来变化

• 批准号: 2889514
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: University of Bristol
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Studentship
• 财政年份: 2023
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2023 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=studentship-2889514
• 关键词: Future; changes; convective; storms; across

Africa is a uniquely vulnerable region. Both drought and flooding are expected to increase in future with climate change [1], which is a major threat to rainfed agriculture, drinking water supplies, ecosystems and a risk to human life. These extremes are a manifestation of changes in convectively driven precipitation, which dominates across Africa. However, despite their importance, our understanding of how the properties of convective storms will change in future is limited. This is in part due to the relatively coarse resolution of traditional climate models, which provide a simplified representation of convection. With increases in supercomputing power, we are now able to run very high resolution (km-scale) models that give a much better representation of convection and individual storms. The first so called 'convection permitting' climate simulation for Africa (CP4A) was carried out as part of the IMPALA project [2] and provided new insights into future changes across Africa. For example, it showed enhanced increases in both wet and dry precipitation extremes [3], of key importance for impacts.

非洲是一个独特的脆弱地区。随着气候变化的影响，干旱和洪水都预计将在未来[1]中增加，这是对雨养农业，饮用水供应，生态系统和对人类生活风险的主要威胁。这些极端是对流驱动的降水的变化的体现，这在整个非洲占主导地位。但是，尽管它们的重要性，但我们对对流风暴的财产将来将如何变化的理解是有限的。这部分是由于传统气候模型的分辨率相对粗糙，这提供了对流的简化表示。随着超级计算能力的增加，我们现在能够运行非常高的分辨率（km级）模型，从而可以更好地表示对流和单个风暴。作为Impala项目[2]的一部分，进行了第一个所谓的“对流”气候模拟（CP4A），并为整个非洲的未来变化提供了新的见解。例如，它显示出对撞击的关键重要性的潮湿和干燥降水极端[3]的增长。