Addressing coastal erosion: Stochastic modelling of shoreline evolution under a changing climate

解决海岸侵蚀：气候变化下海岸线演变的随机模型

• 批准号: 2879840
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: Imperial College London
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Studentship
• 财政年份: 2023
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2023 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=studentship-2879840
• 关键词: Addressing; coastal; erosion; Stochastic; modelling

According to the intergovernmental climate change reports, coastal erosion and flooding represent two of the most prominent hazards for the next 100 years. However, the complexity, nonlinearity and range of time scales of the processes involved makes their prediction using conventional deterministic frameworks infeasible and subject to uncertainty. To address this challenge the PhD project will develop an approach to the long-term prediction of shoreline changes using stochastic (probabilistic rather thandeterministic) models. In particular, the research will investigate how to combine a stochastic model for runup and erosion due to wave breaking and storm surges with a long-term model for coastal morphology and flood risk. The novelty of the project lies in its combination of stochastic processes, wave mechanics and coastal morphology within a single model. The project relates directly to the following EPSRC research areas: coastal and waterway engineering, operational research, fluid dynamics and climate resilience.

根据政府间气候变化的报告，沿海侵蚀和洪水是未来100年中最突出的两种危害。但是，所涉及的过程的复杂性，非线性和时间尺度范围使它们使用常规确定框架不可行并受到不确定性的预测。为了应对这一挑战，博士项目将开发一种方法，以使用随机性（概率而不是标准主义）模型对海岸线变化进行长期预测。特别是，该研究将研究如何结合由于波浪破裂和暴风雨激增而导致的随机模型，以及用于沿海形态和洪水风险的长期模型。该项目的新颖性在于它在单个模型中的随机过程，波浪力学和沿海形态的结合。该项目直接与以下EPSRC研究领域有关：沿海和水道工程，运营研究，流体动力学和气候弹性。