Persistent droughts and water supply system risk in a changing climate

气候变化中的持续干旱和供水系统风险

• 批准号: 2877536
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: Newcastle University
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Studentship
• 财政年份: 2023
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2023 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=studentship-2877536
• 关键词: Persistent; droughts; water; supply; system

Droughts present a significant risk to public water supply systems in England and so water companies are now planning to meet 1 in 500-year drought resilience standards. However, it is essential that climate change is taken into account. In the west of the UK, water resource systems are dominated by upland reservoir storage. Typically, reservoir storage draws down from March/April and refills through the autumn/winter. In sustained dry weather there is little inflow to the reservoirs, with severe drought occurrence dependent on prolonged atmospheric blocking systems. Significant infrastructure investment is planned to ensure water resources are resilient to future extreme droughts. There is a knowledge gap around the patterns of long-term precipitation anomalies and how they might extend beyond summer months. Going beyond historical data to understand plausible more extreme events under climate change, is vital to enhance our understanding of risk and its mitigation. This WIRe CDT PhD will use the latest climate model outputs and stochastic weather generators to characterise the risk to supply systems. It will result in an improved understanding of drought risk, allowing United Utilities to protect its customers from the consequences of longer duration droughts by providing methods for incorporating risk assessments into water resources planning.

干旱对英格兰的公共供水系统构成了重大风险，因此水公司现在正计划符合500年的干旱弹性标准中的1个。但是，要考虑气候变化至关重要。在英国西部，水资源系统由高地水库存储主导。通常，储层存储会从3月/四月降低，并在秋冬进行补充。在持续干燥的天气中，水库几乎没有流入，严重干旱取决于长时间的大气阻滞系统。计划进行大量基础设施投资，以确保水资源对未来的极端干旱有弹性。长期降水异常的模式以及它们如何延伸到夏季，存在着一个知识差距。超越历史数据来了解气候变化下合理的更极端事件，对于增强我们对风险及其缓解的理解至关重要。该电线CDT博士将使用最新的气候模型输出和随机天气生成器来表征供应系统的风险。通过提供将风险评估纳入水资源规划中的方法，使联合公用事业可以保护其客户免受更长的持续时间干旱的后果的影响，从而提高人们对干旱风险的了解。