Testing the impact of the 8.2 ka BP abrupt climatic event on Mesolithic societies

测试8.2 ka BP突发气候事件对中石器时代社会的影响

• 批准号: 2843339
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: Royal Holloway University of London
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Studentship
• 财政年份: 2023
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2023 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=studentship-2843339
• 关键词: Testing; impact; 8.2; ka; BP

Rising global temperatures across the 20th and 21st centuries has caused the dramatic loss of ice volume. Ocean-Cryosphere interactions are considered to have been direct forcing factors for the trigger of Abrupt Climatic Events (ACEs) over geological time. Such events, therefore, offer suitable analogues for understanding the possible consequences of transgressing social and ecological tipping points under current and projected climatic warming. ACEs over the Holocene (11,700-present) have been proposed as having transformative impacts on human culture. The 8.2ka event, as the largest magnitude period of abrupt climate change during the Holocene, may therefore be considered as a key time to investigate the Mesolithic (10000-4000 BC) response to climatic stress. Many studies, however, have critical issues with either the chronology, the resolution of palaeocological records, or the statistical methods employed, limiting the efficacy of their conclusions. A more robust analysis will be achieved by producing high-resolution palaeoclimatic and palaeoecological records detailing seasonal climatic change, which detail how climate variations impacted key controls on human activity, such as resource availability. Quality assurance of the radiocarbon dataset will also be performed. Evidence for a relationship between societal change and climate forcing will then be tested using Radiocarbon-date Event Count Event modelling.

20 世纪和 21 世纪全球气温上升导致冰量急剧减少。海洋-冰冻圈相互作用被认为是地质时期触发突发气候事件（ACE）的直接强迫因素。因此，此类事件为理解在当前和预计的气候变暖下超越社会和生态临界点可能产生的后果提供了合适的类比。全新世的 ACE（至今已有 11,700 个）被认为对人类文化具有变革性影响。因此，8.2ka事件作为全新世期间气候突变最大幅度的时期，可能被认为是研究中石器时代（公元前10000-4000年）对气候胁迫响应的关键时期。然而，许多研究在年代学、古生态记录的分辨率或所采用的统计方法方面存在关键问题，限制了其结论的有效性。通过生成详细说明季节性气候变化的高分辨率古气候和古生态记录，可以实现更稳健的分析，这些记录详细说明了气候变化如何影响对人类活动的关键控制，例如资源可用性。还将对放射性碳数据集进行质量保证。然后，将使用放射性碳日期事件计数事件模型来测试社会变化与气候强迫之间关系的证据。