Modeling climate futures, impacts, response and adaptation options for Arctic communities

模拟北极社区的气候未来、影响、响应和适应方案

• 批准号: 2742590
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: University of Leeds
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Studentship
• 财政年份: 2024
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2024 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=studentship-2742590
• 关键词: Modeling; climate; futures; impacts; response

The Arctic is undergoing transformative climate change, with profound implications for transportation systems. The lengthening of the shipping season in the Arctic Ocean is well-documented herein, with warming temperatures also compromising the operating period and safety of winter roads. Less studied are the more informal transportation networks involving use of unmaintained trails on frozen lakes, rivers, ocean, and the frozen ground, which are critically important for travel between communities, to cultural sites, and for practicing traditional hunting and fishing activities which have particular importance for Indigenous communities. In research conducted as part of the Indigenous Health Adaptation to Climate Change (IHACC) project (www.ihacc.ca), we have documented concerns among Inuit communities in Arctic Canada that changing trail access due to climate change is affecting a variety of health outcomes including compromising food security, impacting wellbeing, and reducing physical safety. In a paper published in Nature Climate Change (Ford et al., 2019) we developed trail access models which identify quantitative risk thresholds of ice and weather conditions that affect the ability and safety of using trails, based upon Indigenous knowledge and science. The proposed PhD project will take this work to the next level, examining how projected future changes in sea ice and weather conditions might affect trail conditions, working closely with Inuit communities. The PhD has 3 primary objectives:1. Draw on the latest climate model information to produce suitable climate scenarios for the region, accounting for uncertainty in response and taking account of potentially high impact low likelihood outcomes. 2. Using already developed trail access models, use the downscaled climate model data to model how climatic and ice-related thresholds and associated trail access might be affected at different levels of warming, over different timescales, and by different generations and classes of climate model (e.g. CMIP5 vs CMIP6). 3. Working with a number of Inuit communities, use participatory scenario planning approaches to examine what projected changes might mean for community livelihoods, culture, and well-being, and identify opportunities for adaptation. Particular attention will be paid to the upper and lower parts of the model uncertainty distributions: for example, what is the minimum change we are now committed to and what this might mean locally; what are the worst case scenarios that may be encountered. The PhD project will be on the cutting edge of developing innovative interdisciplinary approaches to connect science and Indigenous knowledge, and will involve working in the region witnessing the most climate change globally. Reflecting the interdisciplinary nature of the project, the student will be supervised by a social scientist who works with Indigenous knowledge systems in the Arctic (Ford, U of Leeds), a natural scientist (Lowe, Met Office), and an epidemiologist based in Canada who has expertise in participatory epidemiology (Harper, U Alberta). The student will be expected to spend considerable time in Inuit communities in northern Canada, and be comfortable working in challenging cross-cultural contexts and climates. They will have strong modeling and/or statistical analysis training and be interested in engaging in a highly interdisciplinary and participatory project.

北极正在经历变革性的气候变化，对交通系统产生深远影响。本文详细记录了北冰洋航运季节的延长，气温升高也影响了冬季道路的运营时间和安全。研究较少的是较为非正式的交通网络，涉及在冰冻的湖泊、河流、海洋和冰冻地面上使用未维护的小径，这对于社区之间的旅行、前往文化遗址以及进行传统的狩猎和捕鱼活动至关重要，这些活动具有特定的特点。对原住民社区的重要性。在作为土著健康适应气候变化 (IHACC) 项目 (www.ihacc.ca) 一部分进行的研究中，我们记录了加拿大北极地区因纽特人社区的担忧，即由于气候变化而改变的步道通道正在影响各种健康结果包括损害粮食安全、影响福祉和降低人身安全。在《自然气候变化》（Ford et al., 2019）上发表的一篇论文中，我们开发了步道通行模型，该模型根据土著知识和科学，确定了影响使用步道的能力和安全性的冰和天气条件的定量风险阈值。拟议的博士项目将把这项工作提升到一个新的水平，与因纽特社区密切合作，研究海冰和天气条件的未来变化可能如何影响步道条件。博士学位有 3 个主要目标：1。利用最新的气候模型信息来生成适合该地区的气候情景，考虑到响应的不确定性并考虑潜在的高影响低可能性结果。 2. 使用已经开发的路径访问模型，使用缩小规模的气候模型数据来模拟气候和冰相关阈值以及相关的路径访问在不同的变暖程度、不同的时间尺度以及不同世代和类别的气候模型下可能受到的影响（例如 CMIP5 与 CMIP6）。 3. 与一些因纽特人社区合作，采用参与式情景规划方法来研究预计的变化对社区生计、文化和福祉可能意味着什么，并确定适应机会。将特别关注模型不确定性分布的上部和下部：例如，我们现在承诺的最小变化是什么以及这在本地可能意味着什么；可能遇到的最坏情况是什么？该博士项目将处于开发创新跨学科方法的前沿，以连接科学和土著知识，并将涉及在见证全球气候变化最严重的地区开展工作。为了反映该项目的跨学科性质，学生将受到一位从事北极土著知识系统工作的社会科学家（利兹大学福特）、一位自然科学家（英国气象局洛）和一位加拿大流行病学家的监督他拥有参与式流行病学方面的专业知识（哈珀，阿尔伯塔大学）。学生将需要在加拿大北部的因纽特人社区度过相当长的时间，并能够在充满挑战的跨文化环境和气候中轻松工作。他们将接受过强大的建模和/或统计分析培训，并对参与高度跨学科和参与性的项目感兴趣。