Modeling climate futures, impacts, response and adaptation options for Arctic communities

模拟北极社区的气候未来、影响、响应和适应方案

• 批准号: 2742590
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: University of Leeds
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Studentship
• 财政年份: 2024
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2024 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=studentship-2742590
• 关键词: Modeling; climate; futures; impacts; response

The Arctic is undergoing transformative climate change, with profound implications for transportation systems. The lengthening of the shipping season in the Arctic Ocean is well-documented herein, with warming temperatures also compromising the operating period and safety of winter roads. Less studied are the more informal transportation networks involving use of unmaintained trails on frozen lakes, rivers, ocean, and the frozen ground, which are critically important for travel between communities, to cultural sites, and for practicing traditional hunting and fishing activities which have particular importance for Indigenous communities. In research conducted as part of the Indigenous Health Adaptation to Climate Change (IHACC) project (www.ihacc.ca), we have documented concerns among Inuit communities in Arctic Canada that changing trail access due to climate change is affecting a variety of health outcomes including compromising food security, impacting wellbeing, and reducing physical safety. In a paper published in Nature Climate Change (Ford et al., 2019) we developed trail access models which identify quantitative risk thresholds of ice and weather conditions that affect the ability and safety of using trails, based upon Indigenous knowledge and science. The proposed PhD project will take this work to the next level, examining how projected future changes in sea ice and weather conditions might affect trail conditions, working closely with Inuit communities. The PhD has 3 primary objectives:1. Draw on the latest climate model information to produce suitable climate scenarios for the region, accounting for uncertainty in response and taking account of potentially high impact low likelihood outcomes. 2. Using already developed trail access models, use the downscaled climate model data to model how climatic and ice-related thresholds and associated trail access might be affected at different levels of warming, over different timescales, and by different generations and classes of climate model (e.g. CMIP5 vs CMIP6). 3. Working with a number of Inuit communities, use participatory scenario planning approaches to examine what projected changes might mean for community livelihoods, culture, and well-being, and identify opportunities for adaptation. Particular attention will be paid to the upper and lower parts of the model uncertainty distributions: for example, what is the minimum change we are now committed to and what this might mean locally; what are the worst case scenarios that may be encountered. The PhD project will be on the cutting edge of developing innovative interdisciplinary approaches to connect science and Indigenous knowledge, and will involve working in the region witnessing the most climate change globally. Reflecting the interdisciplinary nature of the project, the student will be supervised by a social scientist who works with Indigenous knowledge systems in the Arctic (Ford, U of Leeds), a natural scientist (Lowe, Met Office), and an epidemiologist based in Canada who has expertise in participatory epidemiology (Harper, U Alberta). The student will be expected to spend considerable time in Inuit communities in northern Canada, and be comfortable working in challenging cross-cultural contexts and climates. They will have strong modeling and/or statistical analysis training and be interested in engaging in a highly interdisciplinary and participatory project.

北极正在经历变革性的气候变化，对运输系统产生了深远的影响。北极海洋中运输季节的延长在此处有充分记录，温度变暖也损害了冬季道路的运营期和安全性。研究较少的是，涉及在冷冻湖泊，河流，海洋和冷冻地面上使用不太有的小径，对社区之间的旅行至关重要，对文化场所之间的旅行至关重要，并且对于对土著社区特别重要的传统狩猎和捕鱼活动至关重要。在作为气候变化（IHACC）项目（www.ihacc.ca）的土著健康适应的一部分的研究中，我们记录了加拿大北极社区中加拿大因纽特人社区之间的关注，即由于气候变化而改变的跟踪通道会影响各种健康状况，包括各种健康状况，包括损害粮食安全，影响食品安全，影响良好的身体安全，并降低物理安全。在自然气候变化（Ford等，2019）中发表的一篇论文中，我们开发了步道访问模型，该模型确定了基于土著知识和科学的冰和天气条件的定量风险阈值，这些冰和天气状况会影响使用小径的能力和安全性。拟议的博士学位项目将把这项工作提升到一个新的水平，研究海冰和天气状况的预计未来变化如何影响跟踪条件，并与因纽特人社区紧密合作。博士有3个主要目标：1。利用最新的气候模型信息为该地区生成合适的气候场景，考虑了响应的不确定性，并考虑了潜在的高影响力结果。 2。使用已经开发的跟踪访问模型，使用较低的气候模型数据来模拟气候和与冰有关的阈值和相关的跟踪访问如何在不同级别的变暖水平，在不同的时间范围内以及不同世代和不同的气候模型的类别（例如CMIP5 VS CMIP6）上受到影响。 3.与许多因纽特人社区合作，使用参与式计划方法来检查预计的变化可能对社区生计，文化和福祉意味着什么，并确定适应的机会。特别关注模型不确定性分布的上部和下部：例如，我们现在承诺的最小变化是什么，这可能在本地含义；可能遇到的最坏情况是什么。博士学位项目将处于开发创新的跨学科方法来连接科学和土著知识的最前沿，并将涉及在该地区目睹全球气候变化最大的地区。反映了该项目的跨学科性质，学生将受到与北极地区（福特，利兹大学），自然科学家（Lowe，Met Office）和一位位于加拿大的流行病学专家的社会科学家的监督，他在参与性流行病学（Harper，U Alberta）中具有专业知识。预计该学生将在加拿大北部的因纽特人社区度过相当长的时光，并在挑战性的跨文化环境和气候中工作。他们将拥有强大的建模和/或统计分析培训，并有兴趣参与高度跨学科和参与的项目。