Probabilistic assessment of structural integrity of composite components in offshore wind energy

海上风能复合材料部件结构完整性的概率评估

• 批准号: 2588448
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: University of Edinburgh
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Studentship
• 财政年份: 2021
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2021 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=studentship-2588448
• 关键词: Probabilistic; assessment; structural; integrity; composite

Studies show that a significant number of offshore wind turbine generators (WTGs) will reach the endof their type certified design life before 2030 (Adedipe and Shafiee 2021) and with the push in recent yearsto increase the installed capacity of offshore wind energy to meet Net-Zero targets and improve energysecurity, EoL decisions will become increasingly important. As demonstrated by the Middelgrunden andHR1 OWFs, the industry is likely to see a shift towards extending the operational life of existing assets asopposed to straight decommissioning (Gokhale 2021). Furthermore, the low energy prices at the start of2020, as a result of the pandemic, have meant that older plants are considering lifetime extension as amethod of recuperating losses through extended operation (Randall-Smith 2020).An alternative method of assessing WTG component structural integrity could be to apply a probabilisticapproach. Probabilistic structural integrity analyses, often referred to as structural reliability analysis,account for the probability distributions of the input load and resistance properties to give the failure frequencyof a component. Probabilistic models incorporate randomness and unlike deterministic methods,which can demonstrate that failure is not credible, probabilistic methods can demonstrate that the risk offailure is less than a specified acceptable value, often referred to as the target reliability. The target reliabilityis the allowable probability of failure in a given time for a particular a component under a specific failuremode.

研究表明，大量的海上风力涡轮机发电机（WTG）将在2030年之前（Adedipe and Shafiee 2021）之前达到其类型认证的设计寿命，并且随着最近一年的推动，EOL的决定将变得越来越重要。正如Middelgrunden Andhr1 OWFS所证明的那样，该行业可能会看到朝着延长现有资产的运营寿命的转变（Gokhale 2021）。此外，由于大流行，2020年初的低能价格意味着较旧的植物正在将终生延长视为通过扩展运行来恢复损失的amethod（Randall-Smith 2020）。一种评估WTG组件结构完整性的替代方法可以应用于探针。概率结构完整性分析（通常称为结构可靠性分析）解释了输入负载和电阻属性的概率分布，以使失败频率成为组件。概率模型包含随机性，并且与确定性方法不同，这可以证明失败是不可信的，概率方法可以证明，风险远期的偏见小于特定的可接受价值，通常称为目标可靠性。目标可靠性是在特定的失败列表下特定A组件在给定时间内失败的允许概率。