Probabilistic assessment of structural integrity of composite components in offshore wind energy

海上风能复合材料部件结构完整性的概率评估

基本信息

批准号：
2588448
负责人：
金额：
--
依托单位：
University of Edinburgh
依托单位国家：
英国
项目类别：
Studentship
财政年份：
2021
资助国家：
英国
起止时间：
2021 至无数据
项目状态：
未结题

来源：
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=studentship-2588448
关键词：
Probabilistic assessment structural integrity composite

项目摘要

Studies show that a significant number of offshore wind turbine generators (WTGs) will reach the endof their type certified design life before 2030 (Adedipe and Shafiee 2021) and with the push in recent yearsto increase the installed capacity of offshore wind energy to meet Net-Zero targets and improve energysecurity, EoL decisions will become increasingly important. As demonstrated by the Middelgrunden andHR1 OWFs, the industry is likely to see a shift towards extending the operational life of existing assets asopposed to straight decommissioning (Gokhale 2021). Furthermore, the low energy prices at the start of2020, as a result of the pandemic, have meant that older plants are considering lifetime extension as amethod of recuperating losses through extended operation (Randall-Smith 2020).An alternative method of assessing WTG component structural integrity could be to apply a probabilisticapproach. Probabilistic structural integrity analyses, often referred to as structural reliability analysis,account for the probability distributions of the input load and resistance properties to give the failure frequencyof a component. Probabilistic models incorporate randomness and unlike deterministic methods,which can demonstrate that failure is not credible, probabilistic methods can demonstrate that the risk offailure is less than a specified acceptable value, often referred to as the target reliability. The target reliabilityis the allowable probability of failure in a given time for a particular a component under a specific failuremode.

研究表明，大量海上风力涡轮发电机 (WTG) 将在 2030 年之前达到其型式认证设计寿命（Adedipe 和 Shafiee 2021），并且随着近年来增加海上风能装机容量以满足 Net-零目标和提高能源安全、EoL 决策将变得越来越重要。正如 Middelgrunden 和 HR1 OWF 所证明的那样，该行业可能会转向延长现有资产的使用寿命，而不是直接退役（Gokhale 2021）。此外，由于大流行，2020 年初能源价格较低，这意味着老电厂正在考虑延长使用寿命，作为通过延长运行来弥补损失的方法（Randall-Smith 2020）。评估 WTG 组件结构的替代方法完整性可以是应用概率方法。概率结构完整性分析，通常称为结构可靠性分析，考虑输入载荷和电阻特性的概率分布，以给出组件的故障频率。概率模型包含随机性，与可以证明故障不可信的确定性方法不同，概率方法可以证明故障的风险小于指定的可接受值，通常称为目标可靠性。目标可靠性是特定部件在特定故障模式下在给定时间内允许发生故障的概率。