Multipolarity and non-state actors in conflict resolution: Russia and the Syrian opposition

冲突解决中的多极化和非国家行为者：俄罗斯和叙利亚反对派

基本信息

批准号：
2454495
负责人：
金额：
--
依托单位：
University of St Andrews
依托单位国家：
英国
项目类别：
Studentship
财政年份：
2020
资助国家：
英国
起止时间：
2020 至无数据
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=studentship-2454495
关键词：
Multipolarity non state actors conflict

项目摘要

The Syrian civil war has raged for just under ten years. The outbreak of the war coincided with the seemingdecline of US, or western, hegemony in the Middle East, opening opportunities for alternative powers to come tothe fore. The Syrian civil war provides the most detailed and complex case of rising power, namely Russian,intervention in one of the most internationalised and first socially mediated civil war. This project seeks tounderstand Russia's role in conflict transformation in the Syrian civil war and the impact of its actions on conflictdynamics.Since the fall of the USSR, Russian decision-makers have, at various points instrumentalised foreign policy toseek rapprochement with the West, diversify relations, and project power. Putin's second term as president hasushered a nationalist and assertive foreign policy to rebuild Russia's global power status and promote globalmultipolarity. Given Russia's relatively weak economic position amongst the BRICS, a diverse portfolio of policyinitiatives has been relied upon, such as the rhetorical contestation of liberal universalism and westernhegemony, and the instrumentalisation of civil conflict. Russia's military and non-military intervention in theSyrian conflict, in which the UN peace process was sidelined by Russia's Astana and Sochi initiatives andmilitary intervention, have ensured Russia's indispensability in matters of international security, precluding itsinternational isolation after its annexation of Crimea. Moreover, Russia's criticism of previous US-led 'liberal'peacebuilding initiatives in the Middle East and elsewhere, where ruling regimes were toppled, leading to statefailure, instability and, at times, conflict re-emergence, attempts to recast norms of peacebuilding andintervention with sovereignty and non-interference in internal affairs at their core. Thus, this project seeks toassess whether Russia's peacebuilding initiatives challenge liberal peacebuilding norms. Additionally, this projectseeks to place the peace process in Syria within the growing works identifying typologies of peacebuilding,conflict management, and peace.While the research focus is on Russian intervention in the Syrian conflict, the assumption that cyclical reciprocitybetween actors facilitates and constrains agency necessitates not only the analysis of domestic and externalactors' influence over conflict transformation but also of the impact of their interaction on this shift. Additionally,Russia's role is co-constituted with other actors involved in the conflict; facilitated and restrained by reciprocalinteraction with other actors. Thus, this project takes on a constructivist ontology and rationale for investigatingthe composition of the groups involved in Syrian conflict transformation, as well as the reciprocal impact of theiractions and interactions on the international and local strategic environments. This compositional analysis isnecessary to understand the rationale behind actors' interpretations of their strategic environment and theirpreferences for action, as well as the effects of these elements on conflict transformation; that is the shift fromviolent to non-violent conflict. To analyse the evolving coercive and diplomatic environments, which areinextricably connected, and their impact upon the mutual perceptions of Russian and Syrian actors engaged inpeace processes, this project will amalgamate concepts of strategic culture, bounded rationality, and gametheory to assess the ways in which previous actions and interactions shape perceptions of feasible strategicchoices. This analysis seeks to gauge the extent to which Russia's international and local peacebuildinginitiatives and military intervention have induced a shift from violent to non-violent conflict and how thesereciprocal interactions have altered opportunity structures for domestic actors to engage in peacebuildinginitiatives and violent co

叙利亚内战已经持续了不到十年。战争的爆发恰逢美国或西方霸权在中东的衰落，为其他大国脱颖而出提供了机会。叙利亚内战提供了崛起大国（即俄罗斯）对国际化程度最高、首次由社会调解的内战之一进行干预的最详细、最复杂的案例。该项目旨在了解俄罗斯在叙利亚内战冲突转变中的作用以及其行动对冲突动态的影响。自苏联解体以来，俄罗斯决策者在不同时期利用外交政策来寻求与西方的和解，使关系多样化，并投射力量。普京的第二个总统任期开启了民族主义和强硬的外交政策，以重建俄罗斯的全球强国地位并促进全球多极化。鉴于俄罗斯在金砖国家中的经济地位相对较弱，俄罗斯采取了多样化的政策举措，例如自由普世主义和西方霸权的口头争论，以及将国内冲突工具化。俄罗斯对叙利亚冲突的军事和非军事干预，其中联合国和平进程因俄罗斯的阿斯塔纳和索契倡议以及军事干预而被边缘化，确保了俄罗斯在国际安全事务中不可或缺的地位，避免了其吞并克里米亚后的国际孤立。此外，俄罗斯批评美国先前在中东和其他地区领导的“自由主义”建设和平倡议，这些地区的统治政权被推翻，导致国家失败、不稳定，有时甚至重新出现冲突，俄罗斯试图重塑建设和平和干预的规范。主权和不干涉内政是其核心。因此，该项目旨在评估俄罗斯的建设和平举措是否挑战自由主义建设和平规范。此外，该项目旨在将叙利亚的和平进程置于不断发展的工作中，确定建设和平、冲突管理和和平的类型。虽然研究重点是俄罗斯对叙利亚冲突的干预，但行为体之间的周期性互惠性假设促进和限制了机构的必要性不仅要分析国内外行为体对冲突转变的影响，还要分析他们之间的相互作用对这种转变的影响。此外，俄罗斯的角色是与冲突中的其他参与者共同构成的；与其他行为者的相互影响会促进和抑制。因此，该项目采用建构主义本体论和基本原理来调查参与叙利亚冲突转型的群体的构成，以及他们的行动和互动对国际和当地战略环境的相互影响。这种成分分析对于理解行为者对其战略环境和行动偏好的解释背后的基本原理，以及这些因素对冲突转变的影响是必要的；这就是从暴力冲突转向非暴力冲突。为了分析不断变化的强制性和外交环境（它们之间有着千丝万缕的联系），以及它们对参与和平进程的俄罗斯和叙利亚行为体相互看法的影响，该项目将融合战略文化、有限理性和博弈论的概念，以评估先前的战略文化、有限理性和博弈论的概念。行动和互动塑造了对可行战略选择的看法。本分析旨在衡量俄罗斯的国际和地方建设和平举措和军事干预在多大程度上引发了从暴力冲突向非暴力冲突的转变，以及这些相互互动如何改变了国内行为体参与建设和平举措和暴力冲突的机会结构。