Taking the escalator to extinction: Understanding the role of rapid forest expansion in driving hotspots of extinction risk for endemic species in Tai

走向灭绝的自动扶梯：了解森林快速扩张在推动泰国特有物种灭绝风险热点中的作用

基本信息

批准号：
2436971
负责人：
金额：
--
依托单位：
University of Stirling
依托单位国家：
英国
项目类别：
Studentship
财政年份：
2020
资助国家：
英国
起止时间：
2020 至无数据
项目状态：
未结题

来源：
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=studentship-2436971
关键词：
Taking escalator extinction Understanding role

项目摘要

Despite an abundance of data quantifying and predicting the response of forest distribution to ongoing climatic changes in temperate and boreal regions, there is a near absence of data, and hence little understanding, of how tropical mountain systems will respond to climate change(1). While we understand that forests are often expanding rapidly at high elevation as temperatures warm, little attention has been given to the implications of such changes for plants above the forest limit (2,3). Data frequently demonstrate upward migration of such alpine species also, however, with highly limited habitat availability at high altitude, such upward migration is dubbed the 'elevator to extinction' since once at the highest elevations, such alpine species have no-where left to go (4). Data on high elevation extinction risk are, however, vanishingly rare. This significant knowledge gap has major implications for our ability to predict future impacts of environmental change on biodiversity and ecosystem services (5).Previous work by the supervisory team in the region has identified rapid shifts in the altitudinal distribution of alpine plant species driven directly by rising temperature and through displacement due to elevation of the mountain treeline (4). However, expansion of forest at the treeline is highly heterogeneous; expanding rapidly in some areas but remaining static in others (6). While elevational shifts of forest risk alpine plant extinction, spatial heterogeneity in advance allows a mechanism for continued coexistence (7).

尽管大量的数据量化并预测了森林分布对温带和北方地区正在进行的气候变化的反应，但几乎没有数据，因此对热带山区系统将如何应对气候变化的反应几乎没有理解（1）。虽然我们了解到，随着温度温暖，森林通常在高海拔时迅速扩张，但很少关注这种变化对森林限制以上植物的影响（2,3）。数据经常表明这种高山物种的向上迁移也是高海拔高度的栖息地的高度有限的，因此，这种向上的迁移被称为“电梯灭绝”，因为一次处于最高海拔高度，这种高山物种无处可去（4）。但是，有关高海拔灭绝风险的数据却消失了。这种重要的知识差距对我们预测环境变化对生物多样性和生态系统服务的未来影响的能力具有重大影响（5）。该地区的监督团队的备受意外的工作已经确定了高山植物物种的高度变化的快速变化，直接由山脉升高和由于山培养地升高而导致的温度升高而驱动（4）。然而，林林在森林的扩展是高度异质的。在某些地区迅速扩展，但在其他领域保持静态（6）。虽然森林风险高山植物灭绝的海拔转移，但事先空间异质性允许持续共存的机制（7）。