A Dynamic Model of Teen Sex, Abortion and Childbearing

青少年性行为、堕胎和生育的动态模型

• 批准号: 6727314
• 负责人: AHMED W KHWAJA
• 金额: $ 7.7万
• 依托单位: DUKE UNIVERSITY
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2003
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2003-12-01 至 2005-11-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/6727314
• 关键词: adolescence (12-20); age at pregnancy; behavioral /social science research tag; choice; clinical research; contraceptives; decision making; family structure /dynamics; habits; health care policy; health care service availability; human data; induced abortion; longitudinal human study; model; religion; safe sex /sex abstinence; sex behavior; sex education; women' s health

(Revised Abstract) DESCRIPTION: Teenage pregnancy rates, although hitting a new low in 1999, are still very high in the U. S. with 46.6 births per 1000 teenage women. Using secondary data analysis, we will estimate a dynamic discrete choice model of teen decisions about sexual activity, contraception, and other pregnancy outcomes. By estimating the dynamic model, we will be able to account for persistence due to habit formation. The dynamic model will then be used to forecast both short and long run teen pregnancy and birth rates under different state policies regarding sex education, and access to reproductive health services.

（修订摘要）描述：少年怀孕率虽然在1999年达到了新的低点，但在美国仍然很高，每1000名少女每1000名妇女有46.6个出生。使用二级数据分析，我们将估计青少年关于性活动，避孕和其他妊娠结局的动态离散选择模型。通过估计动态模型，我们将能够考虑由于习惯形成而导致的持久性。然后，动态模型将用于预测有关性教育的不同州政策，以及获得生殖健康服务的不同州政策，在不同的州政策下，短期和长期的青少年怀孕和出生率。