The Understanding and Prediction of High Impact Weather in the Gulf of Guinea

几内亚湾高影响天气的认识和预测

• 批准号: 2296120
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: University of Leeds
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Studentship
• 财政年份: 2019
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2019 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=studentship-2296120
• 关键词: Understanding; Prediction; Impact; Weather; Gulf

The Gulf of Guinea and adjacent coastal regions experience some of the most severe thunderstorms on the Earth, which pose a threat to local fisherman, shipping in the region, and the oil and gas industry. Over the Gulf of Guinea, the weather conditions can change quickly within an hour from seemingly calm conditions to strong winds, heavy rain and high waves.This project aims to investigate the dynamics and predictability of organised thunderstorm complexes, which are called mesoscale-convective systems (MCSs) or squall lines, in the Gulf of Guinea. The project would include efforts to advance already existing methods to objectively identify and then track MCSs and squall lines. These methods will be adapted for squall lines in the Gulf of Guinea so they can be used to track features in Met Office forecast products at different horizontal resolutions in the future. Once the squall lines have been objectively identified over coastal and oceanic regions we will investigate why and how they form, their evolution and what they have in common with land forming squall lines over West Africa. The investigation will be based on satellite data from geostationary and polar orbiting satellites, analysis and reanalysis datasets from the European Centre of Medium range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) as well as global and convection-permitting weather forecasts from the Met Office Unified Model (MetUM).The overarching aim of the project will be to improve numerical weather prediction of squall events in the Gulf of Guinea, resulting in more accurate prediction and longer lead times for operational early warning systems. Scientific literature on these High Impact Weather (HIW) events is limited, despite the significant impact on human lives and livelihoods. This project is a real opportunity to contribute to fundamental understanding of storm genesis, lifecycle and physical impacts in a region that has had little attention to date.The scientific objectives of the PhD project are:(1) Objectively identify and track squall lines in the Gulf of Guinea and West Africa(2) How and why do the squall lines from in this region? What are the geographic and synoptic/ large scale weather impacts on formation?(3) What are the underlying dynamics of these squall lines? Are they different compared to squall lines over West Africa?(4) How do numerical weather prediction models capture squall lines and can this be improved to provide longer-lead early warning times?(5) Develop diagnostic evaluation tools to assess the evolution of squall lines in the Gulf of Guinea in the MetUM. This project will be part of the Global Challenges Research Fund African Science for Weather Information and Forecasting Techniques (GCRF African-SWIFT) programme which aims to develop African weather forecasting capability to enhance the livelihood of African populations and improve African economies. By being part of this international project you will have the opportunity to work with both UK and African operational forecasters and connect with tropical scientists across the UK and the international partner countries (Senegal, Ghana, Nigeria and Kenya). The link to African-SWIFT will facilitate access to observations and to local stakeholders who are directly affected by squall lines in the Gulf of Guinea, and it will ensure that you are part of a vibrant scientific community in the UK and in Africa.By being part of GCRF African-SWIFT you will have the opportunity to attend international training and knowledge-exchange events for scientists and forecasters in Africa (e.g. project meetings, SWIFT summer school). Close collaboration with the Met Office (the CASE partner) will ensure the results of this study will feed into operational model evaluation and development. Collaboration with researchers at Monash University in Melbourne, Australia, is also envisioned, potentially involving an extended visit.

几内亚湾和邻近的沿海地区经历了地球上一些最严重的雷暴，这对当地渔夫，该地区的运输以及石油和天然气行业构成威胁。在几内亚湾上，从看似平静的条件到强风，大雨和高海浪中，天气状况可能会在一个小时内迅速变化。该项目旨在调查有组织的雷暴络合物的动态和可预测性，在吉尼亚的鸟类中，这被称为中尺度镜形成系统（MCSS）或阵阵线。该项目将包括努力推进现有的方法，以客观地识别并跟踪MCS和queal线。这些方法将适用于几内亚湾的quall线，以便将来可以用来跟踪Met Office预测产品中不同水平分辨率的功能。一旦在沿海和海洋地区进行客观地识别，我们将研究为什么它们形成以及如何形成，它们的进化以及它们与在西非的土地形成的土地上有共同之处。 The investigation will be based on satellite data from geostationary and polar orbiting satellites, analysis and reanalysis datasets from the European Centre of Medium range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) as well as global and convection-permitting weather forecasts from the Met Office Unified Model (MetUM).The overarching aim of the project will be to improve numerical weather prediction of squall events in the Gulf of Guinea, resulting in more accurate预测和较长的交货时间用于操作预警系统。尽管对人类的生命和生计产生重大影响，但有关这些高影响天气（HIW）事件的科学文献受到限制。该项目是一个真正的机会，可以在一个几乎没有关注的地区对风暴起源，生命周期和身体影响的基本理解做出贡献。博士项目的科学目标是：（1）客观地识别和跟踪在几内亚和西非海湾和西非海湾（2）如何和为什么要在这个地区进行阵容？地理和天气/大规模天气对地层的影响是什么？（3）这些挤压线的基本动力是什么？与西非的挤压线相比，它们是否不同？（4）数值天气预测模型如何捕获que绕线，可以改进以提供较长的早期警告时间吗？（5）开发诊断评估工具以评估元中豚鼠湾的quall虫线的演变。该项目将成为全球挑战研究基金非洲科学的天气信息和预测技术（GCRF非洲抗议）计划的一部分，该计划旨在发展非洲天气预测能力，以增强非洲人口的生计并改善非洲经济体。通过成为这个国际项目的一部分，您将有机会与英国和非洲运营预报员合作，并与英国和国际合作伙伴国家（塞内加尔，加纳，尼日利亚和肯尼亚）的热带科学家建立联系。与非洲抗议的联系将有助于获得观察结果，并与几内亚海湾直接受到阵阵阵线影响的当地利益相关者的联系，它将确保您成为英国和非洲充满活力的科学界的一部分。通过GCRF非洲 - 非洲人的一部分。 学校）。与大都会办公室的密切合作（案件合作伙伴）将确保本研究的结果将融入运营模型评估和开发中。还设想与澳大利亚墨尔本莫纳什大学的研究人员合作，并有可能涉及长时间的访问。