Macroeconomic models play a crucial role in policymaking

宏观经济模型在政策制定中发挥着至关重要的作用

• 批准号: 2277374
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: University of Strathclyde
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Studentship
• 财政年份: 2019
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2019 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=studentship-2277374
• 关键词: Macroeconomic; models; play; crucial; role

Macroeconomic models play a crucial role in policymaking. They combine macroeconomic theories with data to estimate the system-wide impact of changes in the economy. Although models can be very insightful, they are only as strong as their underlying assumptions. Computable general equilibrium (CGE) are one class of widely used macroeconomic models which are extremely flexible and able to accommodate different assumptions about agents' behaviours. Recent developments in macroeconomic modelling have used insights from behavioural economics to explain anomalies in economic models. Specifically, the theories of time inconsistency relevant in saving and investment behaviours and reference dependence relevant to labour market and consumption behaviour have been very impactful. These are crucial to the results of CGE simulations. Unfortunately, CGE models still rely on neoclassical assumptions. This project will seek to rethink some crucial assumptions presented below and will adapt the University of Strathclyde's CGE model AMOS to improve the economic toolset available to evaluate and respond to macroeconomic shocks and to tailor optimal policies. This model is particularly relevant as it is used by the Scottish government (SG) and shares key characteristics with models used by the HMRC, Northern Irish government (NIG) and the EU Commission. The first contribution to this PhD will be to incorporate ideas of present-biased preferences. 'Present-biased preferences capture the idea that when considering decisions that have consequences in the future, the present is particularly salient and has a large impact on the decision at hand'. These preferences capture that behaviour is time inconsistent (decision makers make future plans but over time these change), whereas current modelling approaches assume time consistent preferences. The second contribution will be the adoption of reference dependence in consumption decisions. This refers to the fact that 'outcomes are evaluated using a value function defined over departures from a reference point'. This will allow agent behaviour to be defined differently depending on price and income changes. The third contribution will be the incorporation of reference dependence in labour markets. Similar to consumption decisions, individuals' employment decisions and motivation to work rely on whether their wage lies above or below a reference point. The central aim is to incorporate well-known behavioural ideas developed to better capture how people actually behave into CGE modelling approaches, to improve the accuracy of these models and to test the sensitivity of results to different assumptions. In addition, it will offer guidance to governments using CGE models. If the accuracy of the results of CGE simulations are greatly improved by this project, then policymakers will have an improved toolset for their policy making. This would have positive societal implications. These implications would not be limited to CGE models in Scotland but could also be used elsewhere given the flexibility and relative ease in changing CGE models. This project would also benefit behavioural economists as it would provide quantifiable forecasts and simulations to their theories and economic modelers as the changes in CGE assumptions made could be transferable to other classes of models.

宏观经济模型在政策制定中发挥着至关重要的作用。他们将宏观经济理论与数据相结合，以估计经济变化对整个系统的影响。尽管模型可能非常有洞察力，但它们的有效性取决于其基本假设。可计算一般均衡（CGE）是一类广泛使用的宏观经济模型，它非常灵活，能够适应有关主体行为的不同假设。宏观经济模型的最新发展利用行为经济学的见解来解释经济模型中的异常现象。具体而言，与储蓄和投资行为相关的时间不一致理论以及与劳动力市场和消费行为相关的参考依赖理论非常有影响力。这些对于 CGE 模拟的结果至关重要。不幸的是，CGE 模型仍然依赖于新古典假设。该项目将寻求重新思考下面提出的一些关键假设，并将采用斯特拉斯克莱德大学的 CGE 模型 AMOS，以改进可用于评估和应对宏观经济冲击并制定最佳政策的经济工具集。该模型特别重要，因为它被苏格兰政府 (SG) 使用，并且与英国税务海关总署 (HMRC)、北爱尔兰政府 (NIG) 和欧盟委员会使用的模型具有共同的关键特征。这个博士学位的第一个贡献将是纳入当前偏见偏好的想法。 “偏向当前的偏好体现了这样一种观点，即在考虑对未来产生影响的决策时，现在尤其重要，并对当前的决策产生重大影响”。这些偏好捕捉到行为是时间不一致的（决策者制定未来计划，但随着时间的推移，这些计划会发生变化），而当前的建模方法假设时间一致的偏好。第二个贡献是在消费决策中采用参考依赖性。这是指“使用根据偏离参考点定义的价值函数来评估结果”这一事实。这将允许根据价格和收入变化来不同地定义代理行为。第三个贡献是将参考依赖纳入劳动力市场。与消费决策类似，个人的就业决策和工作动机取决于他们的工资是否高于或低于参考点。其核心目标是将众所周知的行为思想纳入 CGE 建模方法中，以更好地捕捉人们的实际行为方式，提高这些模型的准确性并测试结果对不同假设的敏感性。此外，它将为政府使用 CGE 模型提供指导。如果该项目大大提高了 CGE 模拟结果的准确性，那么政策制定者将拥有改进的政策制定工具集。这将产生积极的社会影响。这些影响不仅限于苏格兰的 CGE 模型，而且考虑到更改 CGE 模型的灵活性和相对容易性，也可以在其他地方使用。该项目也将使行为经济学家受益，因为它将为他们的理论和经济建模者提供可量化的预测和模拟，因为 CGE 假设的变化可以转移到其他类别的模型中。