Analytic Methods:Enviornmental/Reproductive Epidemiology

分析方法：环境/生殖流行病学

• 批准号: 6674280
• 负责人: AMITA K. MANATUNGA
• 金额: $ 18.05万
• 依托单位: EMORY UNIVERSITY
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2003
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2003-08-01 至 2007-04-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/6674280
• 关键词: analytical method; biphenyl compounds; clinical research; environmental exposure; epidemiology; female; female reproductive system; human data; mathematical model; menstrual cycle; method development; model design /development; statistics /biometry

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): Analytic methods geared toward more precise and accurate exposure assessments, and toward ensuring validity in the estimation of exposure-response associations, are critical to epidemiologic studies. Given the scientific questions to be addressed and the often complex structure and nature of the data obtained, this fact is particularly pertinent to environmental and reproductive studies. This application draws specific motivation from two such studies, the Michigan Female Health Study (MFHS) and the Mount Sinai Study of Women Office Workers (MSSWOW). Hypotheses arising in these studies require research into improved and targeted methods for predicting random effects in mixed linear models, into methods for associating environmental exposures to reproductive outcomes while adjusting for measurement error, and into the modeling of longitudinal menstrual cycle length data. Using data collected on female MFHS participants who were exposed to polybrominated biphenyls (PBB) in the mid-1970s, we propose a linear mixed model to describe the decay of serum PBB levels over time while accounting for important fixed and time-dependent covariates (e.g., intervening pregnancies). This model forms the basis for research into optimal criteria for predicting the residual PBB level for each eligible woman at the time of an index pregnancy. These methods will be extended to account for PBB measurements that are below assay detection limits. Secondly, we propose simultaneous modeling of PBB measurements and reproductive health outcomes among MFHS participants and/or their daughters to obtain valid and consistent estimation of exposure-response associations while accounting for measurement error. Finally, we propose mixture models to describe the distribution of standard and non-standard menstrual cycle lengths using data from the MSSWOW, and we describe novel approaches to account for random within-woman heterogeneity and the effects of covariates in this context. This application is designed to improve analytic methods for epidemiologic research by incorporating current developments in statistical theory, by developing new methodology, and by targeting this effort toward important scientific studies. These developments will directly benefit environmental and reproductive studies, but they are ubiquitous enough to be generally useful contributions to statistical practice.

描述（由申请人提供）：旨在更精确和准确的暴露评估以及确保暴露-反应关联估计的有效性的分析方法对于流行病学研究至关重要。鉴于要解决的科学问题以及所获得数据的结构和性质通常很复杂，这一事实与环境和生殖研究特别相关。该应用程序从两项此类研究中汲取了具体的动机：密歇根女性健康研究 (MFHS) 和西奈山女性上班族研究 (MSSWOW)。这些研究中提出的假设需要研究改进和有针对性的方法来预测混合线性模型中的随机效应，研究在调整测量误差的同时将环境暴露与生殖结果相关联的方法，以及纵向月经周期长度数据的建模。 利用 20 世纪 70 年代中期接触多溴联苯 (PBB) 的女性 MFHS 参与者收集的数据，我们提出了一个线性混合模型来描述血清 PBB 水平随时间的衰减，同时考虑重要的固定和时间依赖性协变量（例如， ，干预妊娠）。该模型构成了研究预测每位符合条件的女性在指标妊娠时残留 PBB 水平的最佳标准的基础。这些方法将扩展到考虑低于测定检测限的 PBB 测量。其次，我们建议对 MFHS 参与者和/或其女儿的 PBB 测量和生殖健康结果进行同步建模，以获得有效且一致的暴露-反应关联估计，同时考虑测量误差。最后，我们提出混合模型来使用来自 MSSWOW 的数据来描述标准和非标准月经周期长度的分布，并且我们描述了解释女性内部随机异质性和协变量在这种情况下的影响的新方法。 该应用程序旨在通过结合统计理论的当前发展、开发新的方法并将这项工作针对重要的科学研究来改进流行病学研究的分析方法。这些进展将直接有利于环境和生殖研究，但它们无处不在，足以对统计实践做出普遍有用的贡献。