Statistical Methods for Studying Infectious disease

研究传染病的统计方法

• 批准号: 6606895
• 负责人: Yun-Xin Fu
• 金额: $ 9.66万
• 依托单位: UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS HLTH SCI CTR HOUSTON
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2001
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2001-07-01 至 2005-06-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/6606895
• 关键词: Streptococcus pyogenes; communicable diseases; computer data analysis; computer human interaction; computer program /software; computer simulation; disease outbreaks; genetic polymorphism; human data; longitudinal human study; mathematical model; method development; model design /development; population genetics; relapse /recurrence; statistics /biometry

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): Our long-term goal is to develop a predictive science (understandings) of epidemics and pathogen re-emergence and to study the evolution of pathogenic microbes which cause human infectious disease including epidemics. Specific aims include (1) To develop population genetics theory for treatinglongitudinal samples.We will study the statistical properties of various summary statistics and develop methods to simulate population samples and to compute the probability of a pattern of segregating sites. (2) To develop and evaluate statistical methods for estimating important population parameters. We will develop statistical methods to estimate population parameters such as mutation rate, effective population size, growth rate, generation time and the age of a mutation. (3) To develop statistical methods fortesting hypotheses. We will develop statistical methods to test hypotheses that are essential for understanding the mechanism of evolution, including the hypotheses of neutral mutations, constant effective population size, and no genetic differentiation between two populations. (4) To analyze molecular data from the epidemics of Group A streptococcus. We will analyze, using both existing and newly developed statistical methods, the polymorphism data on a gene called Streptococcal inhibitor of complement (sic), which is highly polymorphic and sic variants are associated with GAS epidemics. (5) To develop a user-friendly computer package for analyzing longitudinal samples incorporating newly developed statistical methods.

描述（由申请人提供）：我们的长期目标是开发 关于流行病和病原体重新出现的预测科学（理解） 研究引起人类感染性的致病微生物的演变 包括流行病在内的疾病。具体目的包括（1）发展人口 用于治疗道义样本的遗传学理论。我们将研究统计学 各种摘要统计的属性并开发了模拟的方法 人口样本并计算分离模式的概率 站点。 （2）开发和评估统计方法以估算重要的 人口参数。我们将开发统计方法来估计 人口参数，例如突变率，有效人口规模，增长 速率，发电时间和突变的年龄。 （3）开发统计 方法提出假设。我们将开发测试统计方法 对于理解进化机制至关重要的假设， 包括中性突变的假设，恒定有效人群 大小，两个人群之间没有遗传分化。 （4）分析 来自A组链球菌流行病的分子数据。我们将分析， 使用现有和新开发的统计方法，多态性 关于补体链球菌抑制剂（SIC）的基因的数据， 高度多态性和SIC变体与气体流行病有关。 （5）到 开发一个用户友好的计算机软件包，用于分析纵向样品 结合新开发的统计方法。