TowaRds the future Projection and management of the Impact of Climate Change on Bolivian water Supply (TROPICCS)

展望未来 气候变化对玻利维亚供水影响的预测和管理 (TROPICCS)

• 批准号: NE/W004267/1
• 负责人: Francesca Pellicciotti
• 金额: $ 10.65万
• 依托单位: Northumbria University
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2021
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2021 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FW004267%2F1
• 关键词: TowaRds; future; Projection; management; Impact

In Bolivia, a large proportion of the water supply of the capital city, La Paz, is provided by meltwater from glaciers. During the year glaciers tend to melt when conditions are dry and warm, and so they provide water when it is needed most. However, these glaciers are shrinking rapidly due to climate change, and their reduction and possible total disappearance will reduce the water available for La Paz for drinking water, agriculture and hydropower. It is therefore important to understand exactly how important glaciers are for water supplies and how glacier runoff interacts with vegetation and peatlands, especially during very dry conditions when other sources of water are lacking. It is also necessary to build modelling tools that will allow us to predict how the glaciers and water resources from the catchments will change in the future, since this information can be used to better manage and adapt to the future change in water supply.Our new project will combine scientists that work with state-of-the-art glacier and hydrological models from Northumbria University, UK, with Bolivian glaciologists and hydrologists from Universidad Mayor de San Andrés, Bolivia and experts on operational melt models from CIMA Research Foundation in Italy. We will first collect high resolution satellite data for the catchment, create a map of landcover by classifying satellite imagery and install a new weather station on one of the glaciers in the catchment. These data will be used, together with existing datasets and satellite derived products, to run a detailed model that can represent in a physical manner all of the processes that affect the amount of water available for use in the catchment, including from glacier melt, groundwater, evapotranspiration and all the main hydrological processes occurring in high mountain catchments. We will also run a simpler, but faster model over the glacier areas and compare the results of the models. We will then construct a model that can represent the melt of Bolivian glaciers well while remaining efficient enough for use by water managers and for modelling into the future.Through this work, the project will meet the following objectives:1. Provide a new baseline of glaciological and hydrological data for the La Paz/El Alto water supply catchments; 2. Determine the drivers of glacier melt water contribution to water supply and its interannual fluctuations, including during droughts;3. Determine the importance of feedback mechanisms between glaciers, snow, hydrology and vegetation in the magnitude and seasonality of catchment runoff and; 4. Establish the model complexity required to adequately represent glacier runoff in operational water resource modelling.The results of our work will be published in peer-reviewed journals, but we will also write a briefing document in Spanish for local stakeholders (water managers and government officials) which will be presented at a dissemination workshop in Bolivia. The project will lead to: a new partnership between the organisations involved; new knowledge of Bolivian glaciers and their importance to water supplies; and the development of operational modelling tools that work well in the region. This will allow us to apply for future funding with the long-term aim of predicting glacier change over the entire Cordillera Real and its effect on water supplies into the future - thereby providing the information needed to better manage Bolivian water resources. This will allow planning for additional catchment water storage, implementation of water use efficiency measures, or the implementation of improved drought prediction systems to enhance decision making about water resources.

在玻利维亚，首都拉巴斯的大部分供水是由冰川融水提供的。一年中，当气候干燥温暖时，冰川往往会融化，因此它们可以在最需要的时候提供水。然而，由于气候变化，这些冰川正在迅速缩小，它们的减少甚至可能完全消失将减少拉巴斯可用于饮用水、农业和水力发电的水量，因此准确了解冰川对水的重要性非常重要。供应以及冰川径流如何与植被和泥炭地相互作用，特别是在缺乏其他水源的非常干燥的条件下，还有必要建立建模工具，使我们能够预测流域的冰川和水资源将如何变化。未来，因为这些信息可以用来更好地管理和适应未来的供水变化。我们的新项目将结合来自英国诺森比亚大学最先进的冰川和水文模型的科学家，来自玻利维亚圣安德烈斯市长大学的玻利维亚冰川学家和水文学家以及意大利 CIMA 研究基金会的融化模型专家，我们将首先收集流域的高分辨率卫星数据，通过对卫星图像进行分类来创建土地覆盖图，并安装新的地图。这些数据将与现有数据集和卫星衍生产品一起运行一个详细的模型，该模型可以以物理方式表示影响冰川的所有过程。流域内可用的水量，包括冰川融化、地下水、蒸散以及高山流域发生的所有主要水文过程。我们还将在冰川区域运行一个更简单但更快的模型，并比较结果。然后，我们将构建一个能够很好地代表玻利维亚冰川融化的模型，同时保持足够的效率，供水资源管理者使用和建模未来。通过这项工作，该项目将实现以下目标： 1。拉巴斯/埃尔阿尔托供水流域的冰川学和水文数据的新基线； 2. 确定冰川融水对供水的贡献及其年际波动的驱动因素，包括干旱期间；3. 确定冰川之间反馈机制的重要性。 、雪、水文和植被的流域径流的大小和季节性； 4. 建立在业务水资源模型中充分表示冰川径流所需的模型复杂性。我们的工作将在同行评审的期刊上发表，但我们还将为当地利益相关者（水管理者和政府官员）编写一份西班牙语简报文件，该文件将在玻利维亚的传播研讨会上展示该项目将导致：相关组织之间的伙伴关系；对玻利维亚冰川及其对供水的重要性的新认识；以及开发在该地区运行良好的操作模型工具，这将使我们能够申请未来的资金，以实现预测冰川的长期目标。改变整个科迪勒拉雷亚尔山脉及其对未来供水的影响 - 从而提供更好地管理玻利维亚水资源所需的信息，这将有助于规划额外的流域蓄水、实施用水效率措施或实施改善干旱。预测系统，以加强水资源决策。