People-Centered Tsunami early Warning for the INdian coastlines (PCTWIN)

印度海岸线以人为本的海啸预警 (PCTWIN)

• 批准号: NE/Z503496/1
• 负责人: Fatemeh Jalayer
• 金额: $ 115.96万
• 依托单位: University College London
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2024
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2024 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FZ503496%2F1
• 关键词: People; Centered; Tsunami; early; Warning

The United Nations has called for every person on earth to be covered by warning systems. Tsunami events are responsible for greatest of losses compared to other more frequent hazards. The Indian coastlines, which are some of the most populated areas in the world, are prone to tsunamis generated from subduction zones such as Makran, the northern part of the Sunda trench and submarine landslides. The arrival time for these events could range between 15 minutes for the Andaman Nicobar Islands to 2-3 hours for the mainland. This is a time scale where effective warning and being prepared to act can save many lives. The Indian Tsunami Early Warning Centre (ITEWC) is an official tsunami service provider for 25 countries along the Indian Ocean Coasts. Through achieving improvements to the practical and operational capacities of ITEWC, grounded in local participation, PCTWIN takes concrete steps towards ensuring communities are more disaster resilient.The objectives of PCTWIN are aligned with the pillars of people-centred early warning: improving disaster risk knowledge; improved detection, observation, and forecasting of tsunamis; more effective and more inclusive tsunami warning communication; increased preparedness.Knowledge of the physics of tsunamigenic sources provides invaluable insights into the expected features and frequency of future large megathrust earthquakes. PCTWIN will use the GNSS stations in the Sumatra-Andaman region to tackle fundamental questions regarding post seismic deformation and strain accumulation 20 years after the great 2004 Sumatra Earthquake.Non-seismic and atypical tsunami sources have been responsible for deadly, near-source, tsunamis that have left no time for the affected populations to safely evacuate. Examples are the 2018 Sulawesi and Sunda Strait Tsunamis. PCTWIN pushes boundaries of frontier research by comprehensive characterization of tsunamigenic submarine landslide sources. This will pave the way for tsunami forecasting to include the landslide sources.There are several operational and technical challenges related to tsunami forecasting and early warning, such as high uncertainties in early source characterizations, gaps related to timely assimilation and post-processing of data, and effective communication of uncertainties. PCTWIN promotes a paradigm shift, from deterministic to probabilistic tsunami forecasting with flexible scenario building for the next generation of Indian tsunami early warning system. This entails co-design of communication of uncertainties in warnings and uncertainty reduction through real-time multi-channel data assimilation, especially through implementation of geodetic data for fast source characterization within 5 minutes. PCTWIN strives to forecast not only the hazard but also the impact, at different scales, from lower resolution national scale to higher resolution local scale at selected hotspots as pilot sites for the future.For near-source tsunamis with short arrival times, preparedness and readiness to act can save many lives. Situational awareness and risk perception gaps, especially related to inclusion of vulnerable groups, are serious barriers towards community resilience to tsunamis. PCTWIN embraces inclusive, local, and participatory methods for increasing the preparedness of the communities at tsunami risk. This is facilitated by synergies with UNESCO initiatives in the Indian Ocean region such as the Tsunami Ready Recognition Program. PCTWIN complements the Tsunami ready preparedness indicators by introducing markers measuring the inclusivity of the tsunami response plans devised by the local communities and engagement of the private sector.Striving to render tsunami readiness accessible to all communities at risk, PCTWIN will co-design and co-develop best practice guidelines for making communities tsunami ready and tsunami resilient.

联合国呼吁地球上的每个人都被警告系统覆盖。与其他更频繁的危害相比，海啸事件造成了最大的损失。印度海岸线是世界上人口最多的地区，是由俯冲带（如山达沟渠北部和海底陆地滑坡）等俯冲带产生的海啸。这些事件的到达时间可能在安达曼·尼科巴群岛（Andaman Nicobar Islands）的15分钟内到大陆的2-3小时。这是一个时间尺度，有效的警告和准备采取行动可以挽救许多生命。印度海啸预警中心（ITEWC）是印度洋海岸25个国家 /地区的官方海啸服务提供商。通过以地方参与为基础的ITEWC实践和运营能力的改善，PCTWIN采取具体步骤，以确保社区更具灾难的弹性。提高了海啸的检测，观察和预测；更有效，更具包容性的海啸警告交流；增加的准备性。对海啸物理的知识提供了对未来大型大型地震的预期特征和频率的宝贵见解。 PCTWIN will use the GNSS stations in the Sumatra-Andaman region to tackle fundamental questions regarding post seismic deformation and strain accumulation 20 years after the great 2004 Sumatra Earthquake.Non-seismic and atypical tsunami sources have been responsible for deadly, near-source, tsunamis that have left no time for the affected populations to safely evacuate.例子是2018年的Sulawesi和Sunda海峡海啸。 PCTWIN通过全面的海啸潜艇滑坡来源来推动边境研究的界限。这将为海啸预测添加包括压倒性资源的预测铺平道路。与海啸预测和早期警告有关的几种操作和技术挑战，例如早期源特征中的高不确定性，与及时的辅助和后期化的数据相关的差距，以及数据，有效的数据，以及不认同的有效交流。 PCTWIN促进了范式转变，从确定性到概率海啸预测，并通过灵活的场景为下一代印度海啸预警系统提供灵活的场景。这需要通过实时多渠道数据同化在警告中进行不确定性的通信和降低不确定性的共同设计，尤其是通过实施地球数据来实施5分钟内的快速源表征。 PCTWIN努力预测危险，而且在不同范围内的影响，从较低的分辨率国家量表到所选热点的高分辨率本地规模，作为未来的试点地点。对于近源海啸，近乎源的海啸，短暂到达的时间，准备时间和准备就绪，可以挽救许多生命。情境意识和风险感知差距，尤其是与脆弱群体有关的差距，是对社区对海啸的韧性的严重障碍。 PCTWIN采用包容性，本地和参与性方法，以增加社区以海啸风险的准备。与印度洋地区的联合国教科文组织倡议（如海啸准备认可计划）的协同效应为此促进了这一点。 PCTWIN通过引入标志物来衡量由当地社区和私营部门的参与制定的海啸响应计划的包容性的标记来补充海啸准备的指标。