Understanding within- and between-population variation in responses to climate variability and extreme climatic events

了解人口内部和人口之间对气候变化和极端气候事件的反应的变化

基本信息

批准号：
NE/X000184/1
负责人：
Ben Sheldon
金额：
$ 82.74万
依托单位：
University of Oxford
依托单位国家：
英国
项目类别：
Research Grant
财政年份：
2022
资助国家：
英国
起止时间：
2022 至无数据
项目状态：
未结题

来源：
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FX000184%2F1
关键词：
Understanding within between population variation

项目摘要

Human-driven climate change is leading to increases in average temperature that are having profound impacts on the natural world, including breakdowns in species interactions, shifts in species ranges, and population collapse and species extinctions. Alongside overall warming, climate change is expected to lead to changes in climate variability and in the frequency, duration, and severity of extreme climatic events, such as heat waves. Increased climate variability and extreme events may lead to more severe effects on organisms than more gradual climate warming because they lead to larger relative changes in climatic variables, such as temperature, over short timescales. In doing so, they are more likely to expose organisms to conditions that affect their performance. Consequently, we need to understand how climate variability and extreme climatic events affect the survival and reproduction of organisms, the degree to which evolutionary change provides a means for species to adapt to continued change, and whether there are environmental factors that act to exacerbate or ameliorate the effects of increased climate variability or extreme climatic events. Progress to understand the impacts of climate variability and extreme climatic events in the wild has been limited largely by the difficulty of collecting appropriate data. This is because such studies require climatic data at a temporal and spatial resolution relevant to wild populations, information on the survival and reproduction of large numbers of wild individuals, measures of individual phenotypes in wild systems, and detailed information on environmental characteristics, such as resource availability or habitat quality. We propose to use an ecological system that has been extensively used to study the effects of changing average climate - passerine birds exploiting caterpillars as a food source in deciduous woodlands - to examine how variation in climate variability and extreme climatic events generate variation in survival and reproduction. First, we will use data from one of the longest running studies of a wild animal - the study of great tits (Parus major) in Wytham Woods, near Oxford for which data exist for almost 60 years under standardised conditions. We will use these data to explore the links between climate at a variety of spatial scales, measures of habitat variation, and how these are linked to individual reproductive data and to individual fitness. We will then expand on this single-population study by using datasets from 27 studies of great tits across Europe, to quantify continent-wide patterns in the relationship between climate variability/extremes an survival and reproduction of these birds, and explore differences between populations and between species in these relationships. Using the approach outlined above, our work will provide novel insights into: (1) the immediate consequences of variation in climate variability and extreme climatic events on survival and reproduction, and thus potentially on population health; (2) the influence of these climatic changes on natural selection at both the local and European scale; and (3) the role of environmental heterogeneity in modifying the effects of climate variability/extreme climatic events. These insights can then be used to forecast how future changes in climate variability/extreme climatic events may influence populations and species, better predict the potential for evolution to help species cope with continued human-driven climate change, and pinpoint ways that conservation can use variation in the environment, between individuals, and between populations, to minimise the effects of continued climate change on biodiversity.

人体驱动的气候变化导致平均温度升高，对自然世界产生了深远的影响，包括物种相互作用的崩溃，物种范围的变化以及种群崩溃和物种灭绝。除了整体变暖之外，预计气候变化将导致气候变化以及极端气候事件（例如热浪）的频率，持续时间和严重程度的变化。与更逐渐的气候变暖相比，增加气候变异性和极端事件可能会导致对生物的严重影响，因为它们会导致气候变量（例如温度）在短时间内的相对变化。这样一来，他们更有可能将生物体暴露于影响其性能的疾病中。因此，我们需要了解气候变异性和极端气候事件如何影响生物的生存和繁殖，进化变化为物种提供适应持续变化的手段的程度，以及是否存在加剧或改善的环境因素气候变化增加或极端气候事件的影响。了解气候变异性和极端气候事件在野外的影响的进展很大程度上受到收集适当数据的困难。这是因为此类研究需要与野生人群相关的时间和空间分辨率，有关大量野生个体的生存和繁殖的信息，野生系统中个体表型的衡量标准以及有关环境特征的详细信息，例如资源的详细信息，例如可用性或栖息地质量。我们建议使用已广泛用于研究平均气候变化的影响的生态系统 - 剥削毛毛虫作为落叶林的食物来源的效果。首先，我们将使用野生动物最长的研究之一的数据之一 - 对牛津附近的Wytham Woods的大山雀研究（Parus Major）的研究，在标准化条件下数据存在将近60年的数据。我们将使用这些数据来探索各种空间尺度的气候之间的联系，栖息地变化的度量以及它们如何与单个生殖数据和个人适应性相关联。然后，我们将通过使用来自欧洲大山雀的27项研究的数据集进行扩展这项单人群研究，以量化气候变化/极端之间关系的整个大陆范围模式，这是这些鸟类的生存和繁殖，并探索人群与人群之间的差异在这些关系中的物种之间。使用上面概述的方法，我们的工作将提供新的见解：（1）气候变异性和极端气候事件对生存和繁殖的差异的直接后果，从而有可能对人口健康；（2）这些气候变化对本地和欧洲规模的自然选择的影响；（3）环境异质性在修改气候变化/极端气候事件的影响中的作用。然后，这些见解可以用于预测气候变化/极端气候事件的未来变化如何影响人群和物种，更好地预测了进化的潜力，可以帮助物种应对持续的人类驱动的气候变化，并确定保护方法可以使用变化的方式在环境中，个人之间和人口之间，以最大程度地减少气候变化对生物多样性的影响。