Satellite Radiation Risk Forecasts (Sat-Risk)

卫星辐射风险预测（Sat-Risk）

基本信息

批准号：
NE/V002759/2
负责人：
Clare Emily Jane Watt
金额：
$ 8.86万
依托单位：
Northumbria University
依托单位国家：
英国
项目类别：
Research Grant
财政年份：
2020
资助国家：
英国
起止时间：
2020 至无数据
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FV002759%2F2
关键词：
Satellite Radiation Risk Forecasts Sat

项目摘要

Our society relies on satellites more than ever before, from the use of mobile phones to broadcasting and Earth observation. The use of GPS navigation, positioning and timing signals has grown considerably and we now use these signals in ways that were never foreseen, for example in agriculture and stock market trading. The modern world has also become more connected and built up dependencies that are no longer clearly identifiable. It is therefore essential that we take every reasonable precaution to ensure that satellites are protected.Space Weather poses one of the most important threats to satellites in orbit, primarily through radiation exposure. Radiation exposure can increase within a few minutes, by a ten thousand fold or more, and remain high for days, even months. For example, in 2003 during a large space weather event known as the Halloween storm radiation levels were highly disturbed and approximately 10% of the entire satellite fleet were affected by satellite anomalies (malfunctions) leading to service interruption and in one case the complete loss of a scientific satellite costing $640 million (Cannon et al., 2013). In 2012 the UK Government recognised the importance of space weather as a low frequency high impact event and included it on the National Risk Register (Cabinet Office, 2012). This was revised in 2017 with a recommendation for more investment into forecasting as a means of mitigating the impact. More recent research suggests that with current forecasting capability the loss of gross domestic product to the UK would be around £2.9 billion but with more investment in enhanced forecasting this could be reduced to £0.9 billion (Oughton et al., 2019). The purpose of this proposal is to provide enhanced forecasting to help reduce the impact on satellites. Currently there are over 2,200 operational satellites in orbit (December 2019).This proposal brings together scientists from across the UK with stakeholders from the UK Met Office. The goal is to develop a real-time system to forecast radiation exposure to satellites for a range of different orbits, and quantify the risk of damage or degradation. We will do this by taking research models of the Earth's radiation belts - regions of high energy electrons and protons trapped by the external geomagnetic field and which circulate around the Earth - and turn them into operational forecasting models. The models will use real-time data from ground and space to forecast radiation exposure up to 24 hours ahead for different orbits, including geostationary orbit, Low Earth orbit and medium Earth orbit. It will also include data on radiation storms and cosmic rays. The particle radiation levels will then be used to calculate the damaging radiation effects on electronic components and solar arrays and compared to design guidelines to assess the risk of damage. The project will also include four research elements which are specifically targeted at reducing the uncertainty in the forecasts. The project will deliver a world leading forecasting capability for the Met Office that will help satellite operators take mitigating action, help satellite designers develop more resilient design and space insurance reduce the risk of loss. It will also support the growth of the satellite industry and the UK National Risk Register.1. Cannon, P, S., et al. (2013), Extreme Space Weather: Impacts on Engineered Systems and Infrastructure, Royal Academy of Engineering, London, SW1A 2WH.2. Cabinet Office, (2012), National risk register of civil emergencies, Whitehall, London SW1A 2WH, www.cabinetoffice.gov.uk3. Oughton et al., (2019), A Risk Assessment Framework for the Socioeconomic Impacts of Electricity Transmission Infrastructure Failure Due to Space Weather: An Application to the United Kingdom, Risk Analysis, https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.13229

我们的社会比以往任何时候都更依赖卫星，从使用手机到广播和地球观察。 GPS导航，定位和定时信号的使用已经仔细增长，现在我们以从未预见的方式使用这些信号，例如在同意和股票市场交易中。现代世界也变得更加联系和建立不再可清楚地识别的依赖关系。因此，至关重要的是，我们必须采取一切合理的预防措施，以确保卫星受到保护。空间天气位置是轨道上最重要的威胁之一，即通过辐射暴露。辐射暴露会在几分钟内增加一万倍或更高，并且几天甚至几个月都保持高。例如，在2003年，在大型太空天气事件中，称为万圣节风暴辐射水平，大约有10％的卫星舰队受到卫星异常（故障）的影响，导致服务中断，并且在一种情况下完全损失了科学卫星的损失，而科学卫星的损失成本为6,4000万美元（Cannon等人，2012年）。 2012年，英国政府认识到太空天气是一个低频高影响事件的重要性，并将其纳入了国家风险登记册（内阁办公室，2012年）。这在2017年进行了修订，建议对预测进行更多投资，以此作为减轻影响的一种手段。最近的研究表明，随着目前的预测能力，英国的国内生产总值损失约为29亿英镑，但随着对增强预测的更多投资，这可能会降低到9亿英镑（Oughton等，2019）。该提案的目的是提供增强的预测，以帮助减少对卫星的影响。目前，轨道上有超过2200个操作卫星（2019年12月）。该提案将来自英国各地的科学家与来自英国大都会的利益相关者汇集在一起。目的是开发一个实时系统，以预测一系列不同轨道的卫星辐射，并量化损害或退化的风险。我们将通过采用地球辐射带的研究模型 - 高能电子和质子的区域，这些区域被外部的地磁场捕获，并在地球上循环 - 并将它们变成运营的预测模型。这些模型将使用从地面和空间中的实时数据进行预测，以预测不同的轨道（包括地静止轨道，低地球轨道和中等地球轨道）的辐射曝光最多24小时。它还将包括有关辐射风暴和宇宙射线的数据。然后，将使用粒子辐射水平来计算对电子组件和太阳阵列的破坏辐射影响，并将其与设计指南进行比较以评估损害的风险。该项目还将包括四个专门针对降低森林不确定性的研究元素。该项目将为大都会办公室提供全球领先的预测能力，这将帮助卫星运营商采取缓解行动，帮助卫星设计师开发更多的弹性设计和空间保险，从而减少了损失的风险。它还将支持卫星行业和英国国家风险登记册的增长1。 Cannon，P，S。等。（2013年），极端空间天气：对工程系统和基础设施的影响，皇家工程学院，伦敦，SW1A 2WH.2。内阁办公室（2012年），国家民用紧急情况登记册，怀特霍尔，伦敦SW1A 2WH，www.cabinetoffice.gov.uk3。 Oughton等人，（2019年），一个风险评估框架，是针对太空天气引起的电力传输基础设施故障的社会经济影响：对英国的申请，风险分析，https：//doi.org/10.1111/risa.13229

项目成果

期刊论文数量（10）

专著数量（0）

科研奖励数量（0）

会议论文数量（0）

专利数量（0）

What are the fundamental modes of energy transfer and partitioning in the coupled Magnetosphere-Ionosphere system?

DOI：
10.1007/s10686-022-09861-w
发表时间：
2022-09
期刊：
Experimental Astronomy
影响因子：
3
作者：
J. Rae;C. Forsyth;M. Dunlop;M. Palmroth;M. Lester;R. Friedel;G. Reeves;L. Kepko;Lucille Turc;C. Watt;W. Hajdas;T. Sarris;Yoshifumi Saito;O. Santolík;Y. Shprits;Chi Wang;A. Marchaudon;M. Berthomier;O. Marghitu;B. Hubert;M. Volwerk;E. Kronberg;I. Mann;K. Murphy;D. Miles;Z. Yao;A. Fazakerley;J. Sandhu;H. Allison;Q. Shi
通讯作者：
J. Rae;C. Forsyth;M. Dunlop;M. Palmroth;M. Lester;R. Friedel;G. Reeves;L. Kepko;Lucille Turc;C. Watt;W. Hajdas;T. Sarris;Yoshifumi Saito;O. Santolík;Y. Shprits;Chi Wang;A. Marchaudon;M. Berthomier;O. Marghitu;B. Hubert;M. Volwerk;E. Kronberg;I. Mann;K. Murphy;D. Miles;Z. Yao;A. Fazakerley;J. Sandhu;H. Allison;Q. Shi

Constraining the Location of the Outer Boundary of Earth's Outer Radiation Belt

约束地球外辐射带外边界的位置