SEANA -Shipping Emissions in the Arctic and North Atlantic atmosphere

SEANA - 北极和北大西洋大气中的船舶排放

• 批准号: NE/S005587/1
• 负责人: Anna Jones
• 金额: $ 37.11万
• 依托单位: British Antarctic Survey
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2019
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2019 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FS005587%2F1
• 关键词: SEANA; Shipping; Emissions; Arctic; North

Shipping is the largest means of moving freight globally. Ships consume dirty fuels, making them one of the most important sources of anthropogenic aerosol in the marine atmosphere. Aerosols from shipping can affect the climate directly through absorption and scattering of radiation, with an overall cooling effect to the atmosphere. They can also indirectly influence the climate by changing cloud properties, e.g., albedo and lifetime, which further cools the atmosphere.Two key challenges for assessing future climate impact of shipping emission are (i) knowing the status of the present-day aerosol system - as a baseline from which any climate predictions are made and (ii) quantifying the amount of pollutants emitted. Currently little consensus exists on the impact of shipping emissions in the Arctic and North Atlantic Atmosphere (ANAA) primarily due to a lack of observations and insufficient model skills. Recent modelling work suggests that the Arctic aerosol baseline should account for a disparate range of natural sources. Few models are sufficiently comprehensive, and while some models can reproduce aerosol in some Arctic regions, there is evidence that models can produce similar results via different sources and processes. An inability to reflect the aerosol baseline processes can have significant impact on the reliability of future climate projections. Shipping is also undergoing significant changes. In January 2020, a new International Maritime Organisation (IMO) regulation comes into force, which reduces, by more than 80%, the sulphur content in maritime fuel oils. Superimposed on that, recent climate induced changes in Arctic sea ice are opening up new seaways enabling shorter sea passages between key markets. Significant growth in shipping via the North West Passage (NWP) is anticipated in the coming years. Thus, there is a short window of opportunity to define current atmospheric conditions, against which the impact of these changes must be determined.SEANA will take advantage of the above-mentioned opportunity to make multiple atmospheric measurements over multiple platforms to understand the present-day baselines - sources of aerosol particles including the contribution from shipping - and to determine the response of ANAA aerosol to new fuel standards after 2020. Extended measurements will be conducted at two stations adjacent to the NWP enabling the source of particles to be apportioned using receptor modelling approaches. In addition, SEANA will participate in a Korean cruise to the west side of the NWP, and a NERC cruise to the east, to measure both natural and anthropogenic particles and aerosol processes in two contrasting Arctic environments.These new observations will be integrated with recent / ongoing measurements at partner ANAA stations to generate a benchmark dataset on aerosol baseline in ANAA to constrain processes in the UK's leading global aerosol model, ensuring that the model is reproducing the baseline aerosol in the ANAA faithfully. We will then test the models' response to significant reductions in shipping sulphur emissions using observations taken during the transition to low-sulphur fuels in 2020. The revised model, which can reproduce current "baselines" and accurately predict the response of emission changes in the ANAA, will then be used to predict the future impact of shipping on air quality, clouds and radiative forcing under multiple sea-ice and shipping scenarios. SEANA will deliver a major enhancement of UK's national capacity in capturing baseline ANAA aerosol and responses to emission regulations, results of which will inform shipping policy at high-latitudes.

航运是全球货运的最大方式。船舶消耗肮脏的燃料，使其成为海洋大气中人为气溶胶的最重要来源之一。船舶产生的气溶胶可以通过吸收和散射辐射直接影响气候，对大气产生整体冷却作用。它们还可以通过改变云的特性（例如反照率和寿命）来间接影响气候，从而进一步冷却大气。评估航运排放对未来气候影响的两个关键挑战是（i）了解当今气溶胶系统的状况 -作为做出任何气候预测的基线，以及 (ii) 量化污染物排放量。目前，关于航运排放对北极和北大西洋大气（ANAA）的影响几乎没有达成共识，这主要是由于缺乏观测和模型技能不足。最近的建模工作表明，北极气溶胶基线应考虑不同范围的自然资源。很少有模型足够全面，虽然一些模型可以重现某些北极地区的气溶胶，但有证据表明模型可以通过不同的来源和过程产生类似的结果。无法反映气溶胶基线过程可能会对未来气候预测的可靠性产生重大影响。航运业也在发生重大变化。 2020 年 1 月，国际海事组织 (IMO) 的一项新法规生效，该法规将船用燃油中的硫含量降低了 80% 以上。除此之外，最近气候引起的北极海冰变化正在开辟新的航道，从而缩短主要市场之间的海上通道。预计未来几年通过西北航道 (NWP) 的航运将显着增长。因此，定义当前大气状况的机会很短，必须确定这些变化的影响。SEANA 将利用上述机会在多个平台上进行多次大气测量，以了解当前的情况基线 - 气溶胶颗粒的来源，包括航运的贡献 - 并确定 2020 年后 ANAA 气溶胶对新燃料标准的响应。将在 NWP 附近的两个站进行扩展测量，以便使用受体模型来分配颗粒源接近。此外，SEANA 将参加韩国 NWP 西侧巡航以及 NERC 东侧巡航，以测量两个对比鲜明的北极环境中的自然和人为颗粒物以及气溶胶过程。这些新观测结果将与最近的观测结果相结合。 / 在合作伙伴 ANAA 站进行持续测量，以生成 ANAA 气溶胶基线的基准数据集，以约束英国领先的全球气溶胶模型中的过程，确保该模型再现 ANAA 中的基线气溶胶忠实地。然后，我们将利用 2020 年向低硫燃料过渡期间的观察结果来测试模型对航运硫排放大幅减少的响应。修订后的模型可以重现当前的“基线”并准确预测排放变化的响应然后，ANAA 将用于预测多种海冰和航运情景下航运对空气质量、云和辐射强迫的未来影响。 SEANA 将大幅增强英国捕获 ANAA 气溶胶基线和响应排放法规的国家能力，其结果将为高纬度地区的航运政策提供信息。