Are national HFC emissions reports suitable for global policy negotiation?

国家氢氟碳化合物排放报告是否适合全球政策谈判？

• 批准号: NE/M014851/1
• 负责人: Matthew Rigby
• 金额: $ 41.74万
• 依托单位: University of Bristol
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2015
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2015 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FM014851%2F1
• 关键词: national; HFC; emissions; reports; suitable

Negotiations are underway to determine whether the use of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) should be regulated under the Montreal Protocol, the international treaty that is designed to protect the stratospheric ozone layer. Whilst HFCs do not deplete stratospheric ozone, they are potent greenhouse gases (GHG), with global warming potentials hundreds to thousands of times that of carbon dioxide. Therefore, proponents of the proposed amendments to the Protocol argue that, because their rapid growth in the atmosphere is a direct result of the global phase-down of ozone depleting substances, for which HFCs are replacements, their resulting impact on global climate should now be regulated under the same framework. A major limitation of the on-going discussions is that emissions of HFCs are very poorly constrained at present, with more than 60% of the global emissions, as determined using atmospheric measurements, being un-reported in 2012. This could be due to poor reporting practices, and/or the incomplete nature of global emissions reports under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), in which only a subset of countries are required to report their emissions in detail. Recent estimates of the emissions of HFCs and other synthetic GHGs derived from atmospheric measurements indicate that both factors are likely to contribute. However, a comprehensive evaluation of such "top-down" emissions estimates for the major reporting countries has not yet been carried out. Furthermore, we argue that the uncertainty quantification methods in the "inverse" modelling frameworks that are used to derive emissions of HFCs (and all other GHGs) must be dramatically improved if they are to be robust and relevant to policy makers.This proposal aims to develop new methods for estimating national GHG emissions using atmospheric observations and chemical transport models. In particular, we will pioneer the use of hierarchical Bayesian modelling and Gaussian process emulation. These techniques will allow us, for the first time, to explicitly include the influence of some critical uncertainties in the atmospheric modelling process on "top-down" emissions estimates. This will allow us to estimate national emissions of the major HFCs with a more complete estimate of the uncertainty than has previously been possible. We will examine in detail the differences between these emissions estimates and the national inventories, and determine critically whether the current reports submitted to the UNFCCC are appropriate for informing the debate on the future of the Montreal Protocol.

目前正在进行谈判，以确定是否应根据旨在保护平流层臭氧层的国际条约《蒙特利尔议定书》对氢氟碳化物 (HFC) 的使用进行监管。虽然氢氟碳化合物不会消耗平流层臭氧，但它们是强效温室气体 (GHG)，其全球变暖潜力是二氧化碳的数百至数千倍。因此，《议定书》拟议修正案的支持者认为，由于它们在大气中的快速增长是全球逐步减少臭氧消耗物质（氢氟碳化合物是其替代品）的直接结果，因此它们对全球气候造成的影响现在应该是在同一框架下进行监管。正在进行的讨论的一个主要限制是，目前氢氟碳化合物排放量的限制非常薄弱，根据大气测量结果，2012 年全球排放量的 60% 以上没有报告。这可能是由于氢氟碳化合物排放量的控制不力。报告做法，和/或《联合国气候变化框架公约》(UNFCCC) 下的全球排放报告的不完整性，其中只有一小部分国家需要详细报告其排放量。最近根据大气测量得出的氢氟碳化合物和其他合成温室气体排放估计表明，这两个因素都可能有所贡献。然而，尚未对主要报告国家的这种“自上而下”的排放估算进行全面评估。此外，我们认为，用于推导 HFC（以及所有其他温室气体）排放的“逆”建模框架中的不确定性量化方法如果要稳健且与政策制定者相关，则必须大幅改进。该提案旨在开发利用大气观测和化学品传输模型估算国家温室气体排放的新方法。特别是，我们将率先使用分层贝叶斯建模和高斯过程仿真。这些技术将使我们第一次能够明确地包括大气建模过程中一些关键不确定性对“自上而下”排放估算的影响。这将使我们能够比以前更全面地估计主要氢氟碳化合物的国家排放量。我们将详细审查这些排放估算与国家清单之间的差异，并批判性地确定当前提交给《联合国气候变化框架公约》的报告是否适合为有关《蒙特利尔议定书》未来的辩论提供信息。

项目成果

Atmospheric observations show accurate reporting and little growth in India's methane emissions

大气观测显示报告准确且印度甲烷排放量几乎没有增长

• DOI: http://dx.10.5445/ir/1000075524
• 发表时间: 2017
• 作者: Ganesan A

Atmospheric HCFC-22, HFC-125, and HFC-152a at Cape Point, South Africa.

南非开普角的大气 HCFC-22、HFC-125 和 HFC-152a。

• DOI: http://dx.10.1021/acs.est.9b01612
• 发表时间: 2019
• 期刊: Environmental science & technology
• 影响因子: 11.4
• 作者: Kuyper B

Atmospheric observations consistent with reported decline in the UK's methane emissions, 2013-2020

大气观测结果与 2013 年至 2020 年英国甲烷排放量下降情况一致

• DOI: http://dx.10.5194/acp-2021-548
• 发表时间: 2021
• 作者: Lunt M

Rapid increase in ozone-depleting chloroform emissions from China

中国消耗臭氧层氯仿排放量快速增加

• DOI: http://dx.10.1038/s41561-018-0278-2
• 发表时间: 2018
• 期刊: Nature Geoscience
• 影响因子: 18.3
• 作者: Fang X

Characterizing uncertainties in atmospheric inversions of fossil fuel CO2 emissions in California

表征化石燃料 CO 大气反演的不确定性

• DOI: http://dx.10.5194/acp-19-2991-2019
• 发表时间: 2019
• 期刊: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
• 影响因子: 6.3
• 作者: Brophy K