Understanding the effects of space weather on water sector infrastructure

了解空间天气对水务部门基础设施的影响

• 批准号: NE/M00886X/1
• 负责人: Jonathan Rae
• 金额: $ 6.21万
• 依托单位: University College London
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2014
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2014 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FM00886X%2F1
• 关键词: Understanding; effects; space; weather; water

Space Weather disruption of the near-Earth space- and ground-based systems is now accepted as having significant socio-economic impact , and is included in the UK National Risk Register for Civil Emergencies as a medium-high likelihood and medium impact civil emergency. Specifically, the UK National Risk Register identifies that "(c)urrent understanding is that a severe space weather event could have impacts upon a range of technologies and infrastructure, including power networks, satellite services, transport and digital control components" and that any industry relying on satellite services, that "(s)evere space weather can interrupt satellite services including Global Navigation Satellite Systems, communications, and Earth observation and imaging systems by damaging the space-based hardware, distorting the satellite signal or increasing the errors in ground-based receivers."The potential impacts of space weather on technological infrastructures, including power grids, satellite and ground communications and navigation systems, have generated world-wide interest at government levels in developing both forecasting and mitigation techniques and strategies. Indeed, the UK government is now seeking to establish a centre for space weather forecasting within the Met Office, who represent the state-of-the-art in forecasting terrestrial weather and can apply their 150 year heritage in forecasting to the field of space weather. The effects of extreme space weather can only be estimated since we do not know it's full extent. However, the potential total cost of an extreme Space Weather event has been estimated as around $2 Trillion in year 1 in the U.S. alone, with a 4-10 year recovery period . Quantifying the effects of Space Weather in all its forms is therefore of paramount importance. Less work has been undertaken in wider infrastructure sectors i.e. beyond those that coincide with technological infrastructures discussed above such as electricity distribution, communications and aviation. However, other infrastructure sectors exhibit important vulnerabilities to space weather, both being dependent on these technologies (e.g. GNSS, radio communication) through a disturbed ionosphere but also through sector-specific vulnerabilities. For example, Atkins has recently undertaken a study in relation to rail infrastructure, which has specific communication technologies and signal networks that are vulnerable to space weather.Therefore there is a need to consider sector vulnerability in more detail and this is particularly important for critical national infrastructure. Whilst much of this infrastructure has been examined, water is an area which merits increased attention. The water sector has extensive metal pipeline networks and is increasingly dependent on remote information collection and real-time control. The last two years of drought and extensive inland and coastal flooding has demonstrated the importance of effectively managing water. Moreover, the water sector uses UHF radio communication as an integral part of their operations and infrastructure. Since space weather is able to influence the propagation of signals through the modification and disturbing of the Earth's ionosphere, this represents an indirect way by which space weather can adversely influence the water sector operations and infrastructure.Atkins is the main stakeholder for this work, and Atkins is currently liaising with major water company clients on this issue. The wider stakeholder sphere will include the Environment Agency (as an asset manager and regulator), Ofwat, the Drinking Water Inspectorate, all water companies and water company supplies including consultants and the asset supply chain.

近地天基和地面系统的空间天气破坏现已被认为具有重大社会经济影响，并被列入英国国家民事紧急情况风险登记册，作为中高可能性和中等影响的民事紧急情况。具体来说，英国国家风险登记册指出，“(c)目前的理解是，严重的空间天气事件可能会对一系列技术和基础设施产生影响，包括电力网络、卫星服务、运输和数字控制组件”，并且任何行业依靠卫星服务，“恶劣的太空天气可能会损坏天基硬件、扭曲卫星信号或增加地面误差，从而中断包括全球导航卫星系统、通信以及地球观测和成像系统在内的卫星服务。”基于接收器。“空间天气对包括电网、卫星和地面通信及导航系统在内的技术基础设施引起了全世界政府层面对开发预测和缓解技术及战略的兴趣。事实上，英国政府现在正在寻求在英国气象局内建立一个空间天气预报中心，该中心代表了陆地天气预报的最先进水平，并且可以将其 150 年的预报经验应用于空间天气领域。极端太空天气的影响只能进行估计，因为我们不知道其全部范围。然而，据估计，仅在美国，极端空间天气事件第一年的潜在总成本就约为 2 万亿美元，恢复期为 4 至 10 年。因此，量化各种形式的空间天气的影响至关重要。在更广泛的基础设施领域，即除了那些与上面讨论的技术基础设施（如配电、通信和航空）相一致的领域之外，开展的工作较少。然而，其他基础设施部门对空间天气表现出严重的脆弱性，既通过受干扰的电离层又通过特定部门的脆弱性依赖于这些技术（例如全球导航卫星系统、无线电通信）。例如，阿特金斯最近开展了一项与铁路基础设施相关的研究，该基础设施具有易受太空天气影响的特定通信技术和信号网络。因此，需要更详细地考虑部门脆弱性，这对于关键国家尤为重要基础设施。虽然大部分基础设施都已经过检查，但水是一个值得更多关注的领域。水务部门拥有广泛的金属管网，并且越来越依赖于远程信息收集和实时控制。过去两年的干旱和广泛的内陆和沿海洪水表明了有效管理水的重要性。此外，水务部门使用超高频无线电通信作为其运营和基础设施的组成部分。由于空间天气能够通过改变和干扰地球电离层来影响信号的传播，因此这代表了空间天气对水务部门的运营和基础设施产生不利影响的间接方式。阿特金斯是这项工作的主要利益相关者，并且阿特金斯目前正在就这一问题与主要自来水公司客户进行联络。更广泛的利益相关者范围将包括环境局（作为资产管理者和监管者）、Ofwat、饮用水监察局、所有水务公司和水务公司供应商，包括顾问和资产供应链。

项目成果

The influence of solar wind variability on magnetospheric ULF wave power

太阳风变率对磁层超低频波功率的影响

• DOI: http://dx.10.5194/angeo-33-697-2015
• 发表时间: 2015
• 期刊: Annales Geophysicae
• 影响因子: 1.9
• 作者: Pokhotelov D

A physical explanation for the magnetic decrease ahead of dipolarization fronts

偶极锋前磁力减弱的物理解释

• DOI: 10.5194/angeo-33-1301-2015
• 发表时间: 2015-10-26
• 期刊: Annales Geophysicae
• 影响因子: 1.9
• 作者: Z. Yao;Jiang Liu;C. Owen;C. Forsyth;I. J. Rae;Z. Pu;H. Fu;Xuzhi Zhou;Q. Shi;A. Du
• 通讯作者: A. Du

Low-Frequency Waves in Space Plasmas

空间等离子体中的低频波

• 发表时间: 2016-04-04
• 作者: A. Keiling;Dong‐Hun Lee;V. Nakariakov
• 通讯作者: V. Nakariakov

What effect do substorms have on the content of the radiation belts?

亚暴对辐射带的内容有什么影响？

• DOI: http://dx.10.1002/2016ja022620
• 发表时间: 2016
• 期刊: Journal of geophysical research. Space physics
• 作者: Forsyth C

Statistical characterization of the growth and spatial scales of the substorm onset arc.

亚暴爆发弧的增长和空间尺度的统计特征。

• DOI: http://dx.10.1002/2015ja021470
• 发表时间: 2015
• 期刊: Journal of geophysical research. Space physics
• 作者: Kalmoni NM