Retreat of Southern Hemisphere Sea Ice, 130 000 to 116 000 years BP

南半球海冰退缩，距今 130 000 至 116 000 年

基本信息

批准号：
NE/P013279/1
负责人：
Louise Sime
金额：
$ 38.01万
依托单位：
British Antarctic Survey
依托单位国家：
英国
项目类别：
Research Grant
财政年份：
2017
资助国家：
英国
起止时间：
2017 至无数据
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FP013279%2F1
关键词：
Retreat Southern Hemisphere Sea Ice

项目摘要

Sea ice is of huge importance to global climate, the Antarctic ice sheet, and to all life in the Southern Ocean. However the area covered by sea ice in the Southern Hemisphere is predicted to drastically decrease over the next century; the decrease by 2200 could be as much as 58%.The models, on which predictions of sea ice loss are based, have never been tested against a documented retreat of Southern Hemisphere sea ice. A major retreat in Northern Hemisphere sea ice since 1978 has enabled climate and sea ice models to be evaluated for their ability to replicate retreat data. This has helped ensure that we have high confidence in Arctic sea ice predictions. In the Southern Hemisphere, there has been no similar sea retreat since 1978, which has meant that models cannot be tested against retreat data. This lack of sea ice retreat data has thus been a major contributor to the current lack of confidence in Southern Hemisphere sea ice forecasts.Here we propose to address this lack of data which covers a retreat of the Southern Hemisphere sea ice. We have found a period during the Last Interglacial (LIG) between 130,000 and 116,000 years Before Present (BP), when there was a substantial retreat in Southern Hemisphere sea ice. By reconstructing and modelling a retreat during this LIG period, under a climate which was similar to that of today, this proposal aims to transform understanding of the structure and causes of a major Southern Hemisphere retreat event. The project will be the first ever quantitative investigation of a large Southern Hemisphere sea ice retreat, and will be be of considerable importance to both the sea ice and palaeoclimate science communities.We will generate a new LIG sea ice dataset, using a robust new statistical approach. This will draw from, and build upon, the core expertise of our science team members. Our new Southern Hemisphere sea ice data data will then be used to help establish the cause of the LIG retreat and to test current climate and sea ice models. In addition to identifying the most likely cause of the decrease in sea ice during the LIG, this project will establish for the first time the degree of confidence that the sea ice community can have in our UK model-based predictions of a future retreat in Southern Hemisphere sea ice.

海冰对全球气候，南极冰盖以及南大洋的所有生活都至关重要。然而，预计在下一世纪，南半球的海冰地区将大幅下降。减少2200的减少可能高达58％。型号基于海冰的预测的模型从未对南半球海冰的撤退进行测试。自1978年以来，北半球海冰的主要撤退使气候和海冰模型得以复制撤退数据的能力进行评估。这有助于确保我们对北极海冰预测有很高的信心。自1978年以来，在南半球，没有类似的海撤退，这意味着模型不能针对撤退数据进行测试。因此，这种缺乏海冰撤退数据已经是目前在南半球海冰预测中缺乏信心的主要原因。我们在最后一次冰河（BP）（bp）之前的最后一次冰河（LIG）期间发现了一个时期，当时南半球海冰有实质性的撤退。通过在与当今相似的气候下重建和建模在此距离时期的撤退时期，该提议旨在改变对南半球重大务虚会事件的结构和原因的理解。该项目将是对南半球大型海冰度假胜地的首次定量研究，对于海冰和古气候科学社区而言，将非常重要。我们将使用强大的新统计数据来产生一个新的LIG Sea Ice数据集方法。这将借鉴我们的科学团队成员的核心专业知识并基于。然后，我们的新南半球海冰数据将用于帮助建立LIG撤退的原因并测试当前的气候和海冰模型。除了确定LIG期间海冰减少的最可能原因外，该项目还将首次确定海冰社区可以在我们英国基于英国模型的南方撤退的预测中拥有的信心。半球海冰。