An integrated data-model study of interactions between tropical monsoons and extra-tropical climate variability and extremes (INTEGRATE)

热带季风与温带气候变率和极端事件之间相互作用的综合数据模型研究（INTEGRATE）

基本信息

批准号：
NE/P006809/1
负责人：
Timothy Osborn
金额：
$ 45.99万
依托单位：
University of East Anglia
依托单位国家：
英国
项目类别：
Research Grant
财政年份：
2016
资助国家：
英国
起止时间：
2016 至无数据
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FP006809%2F1
关键词：
integrated data model study interactions

项目摘要

In order to predict the evolution of inter-regional linkages this century, it is crucial to understand how they have evolved in the past. This is particularly important because extremes such as drought are modulated by decadal variability. Our study is motivated by recent identification of multidecadal links between 2000-year reconstructions of Tibetan Plateau precipitation and Northern Hemisphere temperature. We will go far beyond this initial finding by combining insights gained from coupled climate models and observations (instrumental, tree-ring and documentary records) to identify large-scale modes that link the variability of tropical monsoons and northern extratropical climates on multiple timescales. We will (i) better understand the teleconnections between monsoon and extratropical regions (with particular emphasis on the Arctic), (ii) evaluate the ability of climate models to reproduce observed behaviour including regional extremes, (iii) explore mechanisms that drive the observed behaviour and understand how the linkages may evolve under future climate change using simulations with a hierarchy of models. Paleoclimate records, including temperature-sensitive tree-ring records from the Eurasian Arctic and precipitation-sensitive series from the Asian monsoon regions provide a unique opportunity to identify associations on annual to multidecadal timescales. CMIP5 and CMIP6 "control" and "last millennium" runs will be used to assess simulated unforced variability and response to forcings such as volcanoes and to consider sea surface temperature and atmospheric circulation patterns associated with periods of extremes in the monsoon, extratropical and Arctic regions. New simulations with imposed anomalies (e.g. sea or land surface temperatures in particular regions) in conjunction with external forcing will be designed to explore the roles of basin-wide changes or land-surface interactions in generating and synchronising decadal variability. Implications for future climate change will be considered using model simulations and our improved understanding of mechanisms.

为了预测本世纪区域间联系的演变，了解它们过去的发展是至关重要的。这尤其重要，因为诸如干旱之类的极端变化是由十年变异性调节的。我们的研究是由近期鉴定藏族高原降水和北半球温度2000年重建之间的多年代联系的动机。我们将通过结合从耦合的气候模型和观测值（乐器，树环和纪录片记录）中获得的见解来识别将热带季风和北部北部气候在多个时间标度上的变异性联系起来的大规模模式。我们（i）将更好地了解季风和室外区域之间的链链连接（特别强调北极），（ii）评估气候模型在复制观察到的行为的能力，包括区域极端，（iii）探索的机制探索了在使用模拟模型的情况下，可以在未来的气候变化下进行观察到的行为，并了解未来的链接，并理解如何在模拟模型中进化。古气候记录，包括来自欧亚北极和降水敏感系列的温度敏感树环记录，来自亚洲季风区域提供了一个独特的机会，可以识别每年与多年时间范围的年度关联。 CMIP5和CMIP6“控制”和“上一个千年”运行将用于评估模拟的非强制性变异性和对火山（例如火山）的反应，并考虑海面温度和与季风，间质和北极区域的极端周期相关的海面温度和大气循环模式。与外部强迫结合使用的新模拟（例如，海洋或土地表面温度在特定区域中）将设计为探索盆地范围内变化的作用或地面相互作用在产生和同步的衰老变异性方面的作用。使用模型模拟以及我们对机制的改进理解，将考虑对未来气候变化的影响。

项目成果

期刊论文数量（10）

专著数量（0）

科研奖励数量（0）

会议论文数量（0）

专利数量（0）

Response of South and East Asian summer climate to North Atlantic SST anomalies: sensitivity to SST patterns

南亚和东亚夏季气候对北大西洋海温异常的响应：对海温模式的敏感性

DOI：
10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-2414
发表时间：
2020
期刊：
影响因子：
0
作者：
Bishoyi Ratna S
通讯作者：
Bishoyi Ratna S

Ranking of tree-ring based hydroclimate reconstructions of the past millennium

DOI：
10.1016/j.quascirev.2019.106074
发表时间：
2019-04
期刊：
Quaternary Science Reviews
影响因子：
4
作者：
F. Ljungqvist;Alma Piermattei;A. Seim;P. Krusic;U. Büntgen;M. He;A. Kirdyanov;J. Luterbacher
通讯作者：
F. Ljungqvist;Alma Piermattei;A. Seim;P. Krusic;U. Büntgen;M. He;A. Kirdyanov;J. Luterbacher

Quantification of impacts between 1.5 and 4 °C of global warming on flooding risks in six countries