Ocean Dynamics as Driver of Seasonal to Decadal European Atmospheric variability (ODYSEA)

海洋动力学作为欧洲大气季节到十年变化的驱动因素（ODYSEA）

基本信息

批准号：
NE/M006115/1
负责人：
Sybren Drijfhout
金额：
$ 8.95万
依托单位：
University of Southampton
依托单位国家：
英国
项目类别：
Research Grant
财政年份：
2015
资助国家：
英国
起止时间：
2015 至无数据
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FM006115%2F1
关键词：
Ocean Dynamics Driver Seasonal Decadal

项目摘要

ODYSEA will assess how, when, and where the ocean affects atmospheric variability and weather in Europe and in particular in the UK on timescales up to a decade. Particular emphasis will be on the identification of oceanic "early warning signs" that indicate the development of unusually warm, cold, dry or wet conditions several months or years in advance, especially related to extreme weather events. Such early warning signs can include changes in the ocean surface temperature or in the position of major ocean currents such as the Gulf Stream.The best known role of the ocean for climate and weather is as a reservoir of heat and moisture. The ocean stores 1000 times more heat than the atmosphere. Heat stored in the ocean during summer moderates winter temperatures and in summer the large ocean heat capacity ensures that ocean temperatures rise less than on land areas, meaning that in summer the ocean cools the climate of surrounding land masses. This maritime effect is pronounced for the climate of the UK, Europe and Northwest America, with winters that are warmer and summers that are cooler than in other regions at similar latitudes. North Atlantic moisture is the source of a substantial fraction of the precipitation affecting Europe. A recent prominent example is the very unsettled spell of weather that led to widespread flooding in the UK in late 2013/early 2014. Together, the ocean and the atmosphere reduce the temperature difference between low and high latitudes by carrying heat from the tropics to high latitudes. In the Atlantic a circulation called the meridional overturning circulation (MOC) transports heat northward at a rate of more than 1000 Terawatts (TW) - equivalent to the energy produced by 1,000,000 average sized nuclear power stations. This heat transport leads to an additional warming of Western Europe that is present throughout the year and temperatures in Western Europe are on average higher than at similar latitudes in the maritime climate of Northwest America.Over the mid-latitudes heat and moisture from the North Atlantic is carried towards Europe and well into Eurasia by the predominantly westerly winds (in particular the North Atlantic storm track). In ODYSEA we will investigate how variability in the ocean circulation modulates the atmospheric exchange between ocean and land. Research suggests that meanders of the Gulf Stream affect the atmosphere in a region that is key to the formation of North Atlantic Storms. The MOC has also been shown to be highly variable with likely impacts on ocean surface temperatures. This affects the amount of heat released to the atmosphere overlying the ocean, but also the efficiency and direction by which this heat is carried towards the continents. A recent study performed at NOC suggests that anomalies of surface ocean temperatures were key to the development of the atmospheric conditions that led to the extremely cold December of 2010. These anomalous ocean surface temperatures were preceded by a particularly weak MOC in 2009. In ODYSEA we will establish if similar oceanic impacts can be identified for previous weather extremes that have affected Europe and the UK (e.g. wet summers of 2005, 2007 and 2012, the heat waves in the summer of 2003 and of July 2006). Emphasis will be on acquiring a better understanding of the mechanisms through which the ocean can impact the atmosphere and therefore our weather and climate. Current knowledge strongly suggests that the ocean affects variability of European weather and climate on timescales of months to years, but the underlyingmechanisms are far from fully understood. This hampers prediction and attribution of those events. ODYSEA will reduce this gap in our understanding of the variability of UK/European weather and climate by using cutting edge ocean and atmosphere models available in the UK as well as by analysing data from the latest seasonal to decadal forecasting systems run by the UK Met Office.

奥德赛（Odysea）将评估海洋如何，何时和何处影响欧洲的大气变异性和天气，尤其是在英国的时间表长达十年。特别重点将是海洋“预警信号”的识别，该海洋“预警信号”表明，提前几个月或几年的时间尤其是与极端天气事件有关的异常温暖，寒冷，干或潮湿的条件。这样的预警迹象可能包括海面温度的变化或在主要洋流（例如海湾流）位置的变化。气候和天气的海洋角色最著名的角色是热量和水分的储层。海洋储存的热量是大气的1000倍。夏季在海洋中储存的热量调节了冬季温度，在夏季，大海洋热容量可确保海洋温度升高的升高比在陆地区域降低，这意味着在夏季，海洋会冷却周围土地肿块的气候。这种海上效应在英国，欧洲和西北美国的气候中发音，冬天比其他类似纬度地区的其他地区凉爽，夏天更凉爽。北大西洋水分是影响欧洲的降水量大部分的来源。最近的一个突出的例子是，非常不稳定的天气咒语导致2013年底/2014年初在英国广泛洪水。通过将热带从热带携带到高纬度的热量，海洋和大气一起降低了低纬度和高纬度之间的温度差异。在大西洋中，称为子午倾覆循环（MOC）的循环以超过1000吨（TW）的速度向北运输热量（TW） - 相当于1,000,000个平均大小的核电站产生的能量。这种热量运输会导致西欧的额外变暖，整个全年都存在，西欧的温度平均高于西北美国海上气候中的类似纬度。北大西洋中的中高水分和水分从北大西洋中的中潮流和水分都朝欧洲，北大西洋远至欧洲，尤其是西北风（尤其是北部大西洋风暴）（尤其是北部的风暴）。在奥德赛，我们将调查海洋循环中的变异性如何调节海洋与土地之间的大气交换。研究表明，墨西哥湾流的曲折会影响北大西洋风暴形成至关重要的地区的大气。 MOC还显示出高度可变，可能会对海面温度产生影响。这影响了向大气上释放的热量，还影响了这种热量向大陆传递的效率和方向。在NOC上进行的一项最新研究表明，表面海洋温度的异常是导致2010年12月极度寒冷的大气状况发展的关键。这些异常的海洋表面温度在2009年之前是MOC的较弱。 2003年和2006年7月）。重点是更好地了解海洋可以影响大气以及我们的天气和气候的机制。当前的知识强烈表明，海洋会影响欧洲天气和气候在数月到数年的时间尺度上的变化，但潜在的机构远非充分理解。这阻碍了这些事件的预测和归因。奥德赛将通过使用英国可用的尖端海洋和大气模型，以及分析英国大都会大都会公司运营的最新季节性到际预测系统的数据，从而减少我们对英国/欧洲天气和气候变化的理解。