Towards treaty verification of all non-CO2 long-lived greenhouse gases

对所有非二氧化碳长寿命温室气体进行条约核查

• 批准号: NE/I021365/1
• 负责人: Matthew Rigby
• 金额: $ 58.64万
• 依托单位: University of Bristol
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Fellowship
• 财政年份: 2012
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2012 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FI021365%2F1
• 关键词: Towards; treaty; verification; non; CO2

Many countries are required to report emissions of long-lived greenhouse gasses (LLGHG) under international agreements or emissions trading schemes. In the near future it is hoped that such programmes will be extended to every nation on Earth under a global climate treaty, to curb the damaging effect these gasses have on the environment. Whilst national emissions are currently reported based on 'bottom-up' methods (in which emissions inventories are compiled by considering factors such as fossil fuel use), it is clear that accurate and independent verification of these estimates will be vital if such treaties are to be successful. Here I propose to address this issue through the development the first system that can determine emissions of all of the most damaging non-carbon dioxide LLGHGs: methane, nitrous oxide, chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), halons, perfluorocarbons (PFCs) and sulfur hexafluoride (SF6). Together they account for one third of mankind's contribution to the 'greenhouse effect'. A new modelling system is proposed for the determination of LLGHG emissions using atmospheric measurements. The method will use two complementary models to maximise the information that can be extracted from the measurements by allowing emissions to be derived at high resolution close to monitoring locations and low resolution further from them. Because of the unique combination of models and techniques in this system it will be possible, for the first time, to derive emissions of all of the above LLGHGs simultaneously, allowing mutually-beneficial information to be shared between the fields being determined. The two most important non-CO2 LLGHGs, methane and nitrous oxide, will require special attention in the proposed 'inversion'. These gasses differ from the majority of LLGHGs in that they have large, but very uncertain, natural components. Their year-to-year variability has been the subject of much debate and their likely future growth is very poorly understood. To further our understanding of the behaviour of these gasses, I will employ new techniques in collaboration with partners at the Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research and Massachusetts Institute of Technology: parameter estimation of a state-of-the-art wetland methane emissions model, and the incorporation of the first high-frequency isotopologue measurements of nitrous oxide into the proposed model framework. The proposed research will provide a unique opportunity to answer one of the most important questions in modern atmospheric chemistry: what is the concentration and variability of the hydroxyl radical? This is a key question because the hydroxyl radical is the single largest 'cleaner' of pollutants from the atmosphere. The novel multi-species inversion outlined in this proposal will allow much tighter constraints to be placed on this quantity, providing vital information with which to test future models of atmospheric chemistry and transport, and to predict how the lifetimes of LLGHGs may change in the future. The outcomes of this proposal will be the most accurate and comprehensive emissions estimates of all non-CO2 LLGHGs currently available, an increase in our fundamental understanding of methane and nitrous oxide source partitioning and variability, and a greater knowledge of the behaviour of the hydroxyl radical. These aims are recognised as being particularly important to the evaluation of the UK Climate Change Act (2008), and as such DECC and DEFRA will provide letters of support. The understanding gained from the proposed work, and the techniques developed, will pave the way towards international treaty verification for these important greenhouse gasses.

根据国际协议或排放交易计划，许多国家都必须报告长期温室气体（LLGHG）的排放量。在不久的将来，人们希望此类计划将根据全球气候条约扩展到地球上的每个国家，以遏制这些气体对环境的破坏性影响。虽然目前国家排放量的报告是基于“自下而上”的方法（其中通过考虑化石燃料使用等因素来编制排放清单），但很明显，如果此类条约要取得成功。在这里，我建议通过开发第一个系统来解决这个问题，该系统可以确定所有最具破坏性的非二氧化碳 LLGHG 的排放：甲烷、一氧化二氮、氯氟碳化合物 (CFC)、氢氯氟碳化合物 (HCFC)、氢氟碳化合物 (HFC)、哈龙、全氟化碳 (PFC) 和六氟化硫 (SF6)。它们合计占人类对“温室效应”影响的三分之一。提出了一种新的建模系统，用于使用大气测量来确定 LLGHG 排放。该方法将使用两个互补模型，通过允许以靠近监测位置的高分辨率导出排放量和远离监测位置的低分辨率导出来最大化从测量中提取的信息。由于该系统中模型和技术的独特组合，将首次能够同时导出所有上述 LLGHG 的排放量，从而允许在正在确定的领域之间共享互利的信息。甲烷和一氧化二氮这两种最重要的非二氧化碳低温室气体在拟议的“反演”中需要特别注意。这些气体与大多数 LLGHG 不同，因为它们含有大量但非常不确定的天然成分。它们的逐年变化一直是很多争论的主题，而人们对它们未来可能的增长知之甚少。为了进一步了解这些气体的行为，我将与瑞士联邦森林、雪和景观研究所以及麻省理工学院的合作伙伴合作采用新技术：最先进湿地的参数估计甲烷排放模型，以及将一氧化二氮的首次高频同位素体测量纳入所提出的模型框架。拟议的研究将为回答现代大气化学中最重要的问题之一提供一个独特的机会：羟基自由基的浓度和变异性是多少？这是一个关键问题，因为羟基自由基是大气污染物的最大“清洁剂”。该提案中概述的新颖的多物种反演将允许对该数量进行更严格的限制，为测试未来的大气化学和传输模型提供重要信息，并预测 LLGHG 的寿命在未来可能如何变化。该提案的结果将是对目前可用的所有非二氧化碳 LLGHG 进行最准确和最全面的排放估算，增进我们对甲烷和一氧化二氮来源分配和变异性的基本了解，并对羟基自由基的行为有更深入的了解。这些目标被认为对于英国气候变化法案（2008）的评估特别重要，因此 DECC 和 DEFRA 将提供支持信。从拟议工作中获得的理解以及开发的技术将为这些重要温室气体的国际条约核查铺平道路。

项目成果

Australian chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) emissions: 1960-2017

澳大利亚氯氟碳化合物 (CFC) 排放量：1960-2017 年

• DOI: http://dx.10.1071/en19322
• 发表时间: 2020
• 期刊: Environmental Chemistry
• 影响因子: 4.3
• 作者: Fraser P

Marine Nitrous Oxide Emissions From Three Eastern Boundary Upwelling Systems Inferred From Atmospheric Observations

根据大气观测推断三个东部边界上升流系统的海洋一氧化二氮排放量

• DOI: http://dx.10.1029/2020gl087822
• 发表时间: 2020
• 期刊: Geophysical Research Letters
• 影响因子: 5.2
• 作者: Ganesan A

Rapid increase in ozone-depleting chloroform emissions from China

中国消耗臭氧层氯仿排放量快速增加

• DOI: 10.1038/s41561-018-0278-2
• 发表时间: 2018-12-21
• 期刊: Nature Geoscience
• 影响因子: 18.3
• 作者: X. Fang;Sunyoung Park;Takuya Saito;R. Tunnicliffe;A. Ganesan;M. Rigby;Shanlan Li;Y. Yokouchi;P. Fraser;C. Harth;P. Krummel;J. Mühle;S. O'Doherty;P. Salameh;P. Simmonds;R. Weiss;D. Young;M. Lunt;A. Manning;A. Gressent;R. Prinn
• 通讯作者: R. Prinn

SPARC Report on the Lifetimes of Stratospheric Ozone-Depleting Substances, Their Replacements, and Related Species

关于平流层消耗臭氧层物质及其替代物和相关物种的寿命的 SPARC 报告

• 发表时间: 2013
• 作者: Engel; A
• 通讯作者: A

Characterizing uncertainties in atmospheric inversions of fossil fuel CO2 emissions in California

表征化石燃料 CO 大气反演的不确定性

• DOI: http://dx.10.5194/acp-19-2991-2019
• 发表时间: 2019
• 期刊: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
• 影响因子: 6.3
• 作者: Brophy K