RAGNARoCC: Radiatively active gases from the North Atlantic Region and Climate Change

RAGNARoCC：北大西洋地区的辐射活性气体与气候变化

基本信息

批准号：
NE/K00252X/1
负责人：
Robert Upstill-Goddard
金额：
$ 16.01万
依托单位：
Newcastle University
依托单位国家：
英国
项目类别：
Research Grant
财政年份：
2013
资助国家：
英国
起止时间：
2013 至无数据
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FK00252X%2F1
关键词：
RAGNARoCC Radiatively active gases North

项目摘要

Our object is to understand how large, and how variable, are sources and sinks of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere from the North Atlantic. We aim to be able to describe how these have changed in the recent past and how they will change in the future under different climate scenarios. Most effort will be concentrated on carbon dioxide, and we will deliver a comprehensive budgeting of natural and anthropogenic components of the carbon cycle in the North Atlantic and understanding of why the air-sea fluxes of CO2 vary regionally, seasonally and multi-annually. Observations of CH4 and N2O and estimates of their regional fluxes will additionally be made. We, in collaboration with our partner institutions in Europe and the US, will undertake surface measurements of CO2 air-sea fluxes made from networks of voluntary observing ships and at fixed sites. These will be synthesised with observations from hydrographic sections of the interior carbon content. We will thus obtain accurate estimates of the uptake, present storage, and net transport of anthropogenic carbon, and variability in the natural uptake and release of atmospheric CO2 by the N. Atlantic. In parallel with direct estimates made from these observations, forward and inverse models (of both atmospheric and oceanic kinds) of these fluxes will be developed. The main hypotheses are (1) that past uptake and variability of CO2 in the region can be quantified by examination of the deep carbon inventory in the Atlantic, (2) that the present observed variability in CO2 uptake is due to a combination of biological and physical processes that are driven by climatic variations, the main factors being captured by ocean carbon simulations embedded in climate models, and (3) these variations (past, present and future) are due to a combination of variability internal to the climate system and external anthropogenic forcing - in proportions we will determine. Objectives are (1) a template for operational forecasting of the fluxes of GHGs into and out of the N. Atlantic, to be implemented as part of ICOS and in combination with ECMWF (2) an understanding of that sink that can be used to improve projections of how the ocean CO2 sink will change in the future, and (3) a quantitative understanding of how and why Atlantic Ocean uptake of anthropogenic CO2 has changed as a result of climate change over the last 100 years.

我们的目标是了解从北大西洋进入大气的温室气体的来源和汇有多大以及如何变化。我们的目标是能够描述这些在最近的过去如何变化以及它们在未来在不同的气候情景下将如何变化。大部分努力将集中在二氧化碳上，我们将对北大西洋碳循环的自然和人为组成部分进行全面的预算，并了解为什么二氧化碳的海气通量会因地区、季节和多年变化而变化。此外还将对 CH4 和 N2O 进行观测并估算其区域通量。我们将与欧洲和美国的伙伴机构合作，通过自愿观测船网络和固定地点对二氧化碳海气通量进行表面测量。这些将通过内部碳含量的水文剖面观察来合成。因此，我们将获得对人为碳的吸收、当前储存和净运输以及北大西洋自然吸收和释放大气二氧化碳的变化的准确估计。在根据这些观测进行直接估计的同时，还将开发这些通量的正向和逆向模型（大气和海洋类型）。主要假设是（1）该地区过去的二氧化碳吸收和变化可以通过检查大西洋深层碳库存来量化，（2）目前观察到的二氧化碳吸收变化是由于生物和环境因素的结合造成的。由气候变化驱动的物理过程，气候模型中嵌入的海洋碳模拟捕获的主要因素，以及（3）这些变化（过去、现在和未来）是由于气候系统内部和外部变化的组合造成的人为的强制-按我们将确定的比例。目标是 (1) 一个用于对进出北大西洋的温室气体通量进行业务预测的模板，作为 ICOS 的一部分并与 ECMWF 结合实施 (2) 了解该汇，可用于改进预测未来海洋二氧化碳汇将如何变化；(3) 定量了解过去 100 年气候变化导致大西洋吸收人为二氧化碳的方式和原因发生变化。