Will climate change in the Arctic increase the landslide-tsunami risk to the UK?

北极的气候变化会增加英国发生山体滑坡和海啸的风险吗？

基本信息

批准号：
NE/K000047/1
负责人：
Matthew Piggott
金额：
$ 55.16万
依托单位：
Imperial College London
依托单位国家：
英国
项目类别：
Research Grant
财政年份：
2012
资助国家：
英国
起止时间：
2012 至无数据
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FK000047%2F1
关键词：
Will climate change Arctic increase

项目摘要

Submarine landslides can be far larger than terrestrial landslides, and many generate destructive tsunamis. The Storegga Slide offshore Norway covers an area larger than Scotland and contains enough sediment to cover all of Scotland to a depth of 80 m. This huge slide occurred 8,200 years ago and extends for 800 km down slope. It produced a tsunami with a run up >20 m around the Norwegian Sea and 3-8 m on the Scottish mainland. The UK faces few other natural hazards that could cause damage on the scale of a repeat of the Storegga Slide tsunami. The Storegga Slide is not the only huge submarine slide in the Norwegian Sea. Published data suggest that there have been at least six such slides in the last 20,000 years. For instance, the Traenadjupet Slide occurred 4,000 years ago and involved ~900 km3 of sediment. Based on a recurrence interval of 4,000 years (2 events in the last 8,000 years, or 6 events in 20,000 years), there is a 5% probability of a major submarine slide, and possible tsunami, occurring in the next 200 years. Sedimentary deposits in Shetland dated at 1500 and 5500 years, in addition to the 8200 year Storegga deposit, are thought to indicate tsunami impacts and provide evidence that the Arctic tsunami hazard is still poorly understood.Given the potential impact of tsunamis generated by Arctic landslides, we need a rigorous assessment of the hazard they pose to the UK over the next 100-200 years, their potential cost to society, degree to which existing sea defences protect the UK, and how tsunami hazards could be incorporated into multi-hazard flood risk management. This project is timely because rapid climatic change in the Arctic could increase the risk posed by landslide-tsunamis. Crustal rebound associated with future ice melting may produce larger and more frequent earthquakes, such as probably triggered the Storegga Slide 8200 years ago. The Arctic is also predicted to undergo particularly rapid warming in the next few decades that could lead to dissociation of gas hydrates (ice-like compounds of methane and water) in marine sediments, weakening the sediment and potentially increasing the landsliding risk. Our objectives will be achieved through an integrated series of work blocks that examine the frequency of landslides in the Norwegian Sea preserved in the recent geological record, associated tsunami deposits in Shetland, future trends in frequency and size of earthquakes due to ice melting, slope stability and tsunami generation by landslides, tsunami inundation of the UK and potential societal costs. This forms a work flow that starts with observations of past landslides and evolves through modelling of their consequences to predicting and costing the consequences of potential future landslides and associated tsunamis. Particular attention will be paid to societal impacts and mitigation strategies, including examination of the effectiveness of current sea defences. This will be achieved through engagement of stakeholders from the start of the project, including government agencies that manage UK flood risk, international bodies responsible for tsunami warning systems, and the re-insurance sector. The main deliverables will be:(i) better understanding of frequency of past Arctic landslides and resulting tsunami impact on the UK(ii) improved models for submarine landslides and associated tsunamis that help to understand why certain landslides cause tsunamis, and others don't.(iii) a single modelling strategy that starts with a coupled landslide-tsunami source, tracks propagation of the tsunami across the Norwegian Sea, and ends with inundation of the UK coast. Tsunami sources of various sizes and origins will be tested (iv) a detailed evaluation of the consequences and societal cost to the UK of tsunami flooding , including the effectiveness of existing flood defences(v) an assessment of how climate change may alter landslide frequency and thus tsunami risk to the UK.

海底滑坡可能比陆地滑坡大得多，并且许多会引发破坏性海啸。挪威近海的斯托雷加滑梯覆盖的面积比苏格兰还大，所含沉积物足以覆盖整个苏格兰，深度达 80 m。这场巨大的滑坡发生在8200年前，向下延伸800公里。它在挪威海周围产生了超过 20 m 的海啸，在苏格兰大陆上产生了 3-8 m 的海啸。英国几乎没有遇到其他可能造成像斯托雷加滑坡海啸那样规模的自然灾害。斯托雷加滑梯并不是挪威海唯一的巨型海底滑梯。已公布的数据表明，在过去 20,000 年中至少出现过六张这样的幻灯片。例如，Traenadjupet 滑坡发生于 4,000 年前，涉及约 900 平方公里的沉积物。根据 4,000 年的重现间隔（过去 8,000 年发生 2 次事件，或 20,000 年发生 6 次事件），未来 200 年内发生重大海底滑坡并可能发生海啸的概率为 5%。设得兰群岛的沉积物可追溯到 1500 年和 5500 年，加上 8200 年的 Storegga 沉积物，被认为表明了海啸的影响，并提供了人们对北极海啸危害仍知之甚少的证据。鉴于北极山体滑坡引发海啸的潜在影响，我们需要对它们在未来 100-200 年对英国构成的危害、它们对社会的潜在成本进行严格评估，现有海防对英国的保护程度，以及如何将海啸灾害纳入多灾害洪水风险管理中。该项目非常及时，因为北极气候的快速变化可能会增加山体滑坡和海啸带来的风险。与未来冰融化相关的地壳反弹可能会产生更大、更频繁的地震，例如可能引发 8200 年前的斯托雷加滑坡。预计北极在未来几十年内将经历特别迅速的变暖，这可能导致海洋沉积物中的天然气水合物（甲烷和水的冰状化合物）解离，削弱沉积物并可能增加滑坡风险。我们的目标将通过一系列综合工作块来实现，这些工作块检查近期地质记录中保存的挪威海山体滑坡的频率、设得兰群岛的相关海啸沉积物、冰融化导致的地震频率和规模的未来趋势、斜坡稳定性山体滑坡引发的海啸、海啸淹没英国以及潜在的社会成本。这形成了一个工作流程，从对过去山体滑坡的观测开始，通过对其后果进行建模，发展到预测未来潜在的山体滑坡和相关海啸的后果并计算其成本。将特别关注社会影响和缓解战略，包括检查当前海上防御的有效性。这将从项目一开始就通过利益相关者的参与来实现，包括管理英国洪水风险的政府机构、负责海啸预警系统的国际机构以及再保险部门。主要成果将是：（i）更好地了解过去北极山体滑坡的频率以及由此产生的海啸对英国的影响（ii）改进海底山体滑坡和相关海啸的模型，有助于理解为什么某些山体滑坡会引起海啸，而另一些则不会(iii) 单一建模策略，从滑坡-海啸耦合源开始，跟踪海啸穿过挪威海的传播，并以英国海岸被淹没结束。将测试不同规模和来源的海啸源（iv）详细评估海啸洪水对英国造成的后果和社会成本，包括现有防洪措施的有效性（v）评估气候变化如何改变山体滑坡频率和因此英国面临海啸风险。

项目成果

期刊论文数量（10）

专著数量（0）

科研奖励数量（0）

会议论文数量（0）

专利数量（0）

Uncertainty Quantification of Landslide Generated Waves Using Gaussian Process Emulation and Variance-Based Sensitivity Analysis

DOI：
10.3390/w12020416
发表时间：
2020-02-01
期刊：
WATER
影响因子：
3.4
作者：
Snelling, Branwen;Neethling, Stephen;Piggott, Matthew
通讯作者：
Piggott, Matthew

A new methodology for performing large scale simulations of tsunami generated by deformable submarine slides

一种对可变形海底滑梯产生的海啸进行大规模模拟的新方法

DOI：
10.1016/j.ocemod.2020.101674
发表时间：
2020
期刊：
Ocean Modelling
影响因子：
3.2
作者：
Smith R
通讯作者：
Smith R

Comparing approaches for numerical modelling of tsunami generation by deformable submarine slides

DOI：
10.1016/j.ocemod.2016.02.007
发表时间：
2016-04
期刊：
Ocean Modelling
影响因子：
3.2
作者：
Rebecca Smith;Jon Hill;G. Collins;M. Piggott;S. Kramer;Samuel D. Parkinson;Cian R. Wilson
通讯作者：
Rebecca Smith;Jon Hill;G. Collins;M. Piggott;S. Kramer;Samuel D. Parkinson;Cian R. Wilson

Application of the adjoint approach to optimise the initial conditions of a turbidity current with the AdjointTurbidity 1.0 model

应用伴随方法通过 AdjointTurbidity 1.0 模型优化浊流的初始条件