iCOAST: Integrated COASTal sediment systems

iCOAST：综合 COASTal 沉积物系统

基本信息

批准号：
NE/J005584/1
负责人：
Jim Hall
金额：
$ 34.16万
依托单位：
University of Oxford
依托单位国家：
英国
项目类别：
Research Grant
财政年份：
2012
资助国家：
英国
起止时间：
2012 至无数据
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FJ005584%2F1
关键词：
iCOAST Integrated COASTal sediment systems

项目摘要

Prediction of changing coastal morphology over timescales of decades raises scientific challenges to which there are not yet widely applicable solutions. Yet improved predictions are essential in order to quantify the risk of coastal erosion, which is significant in its own right and also one of the main mediators of coastal flood risk. Whilst 'bottom-up' process-based models provide valuable evidence about hydrodynamic, sediment transport and morphodynamic processes in the short term, their predictive accuracy over scales of decades is for the time being fundamentally limited. Meanwhile, behavioural systems models, that focus on the main processes and feedback mechanisms that regulate coastal form have been shown to have predictive capability at a mesoscale (10-100y and 10s-100km) but so far only in a rather narrow sub-set of coastal forms.The iCoast project is based upon a hierarchical systems concept which combines (i) the beneficial features of process-based models, (ii) a new generation of coastal behavioural systems models and (iii) an extended approach to coastal systems mapping, which can be used to systematise and formalise different sources of knowledge about coastal behaviour.The research is focussed upon four deliverables that have been identified as major challenges in the NERC Natural Hazards Theme:Deliverable 1 will be an overall systems framework. The successful approach to coastal systems mapping developed by French et al. will be extended and applied to all of the England and Wales, making use of a new systems mapping tool. These new coastal systems maps can both supersede the coastal cells and sub-cells currently used in shoreline management planning and provide an evidence-based framework for more quantitative modelling. Therein, hydrodynamic and sediment transport coastal area models will be implemented at a broad spatial scale in order to provide evidence of wave and tidal forcings and sediment pathways. The systems framework will be implemented in open source software tools and coupled with methods for uncertainty analysis. Coupling with proprietary tools will, where appropriate, be implemented in OpenMI.Deliverable 2 will be a new generation of reduced complexity behavioural geomorphic models to enable simulation of coupled coastal-estuary-offshore landform behaviour at a meso-scale. Work on this deliverable will begin by reviewing existing behavioural modules, several of which are held in-house within the iCoast consortium (SCAPE, ASMITA, various version of 1-line beach models). Identified priorities for new development and incremental improvement will be researched intensively by a team with unique experience of this type of model development. The scope of data-based models that can exploit the rapidly expanding datasets from coastal observatories will be extended. The models will be integrated within a systems framework in order to identify emergent properties and explore key sensitivities.Deliverable 3 will entail application and validation at two coastal regions, namely the Suffolk Coast (Sub-Cell 3c) and Liverpool Bay (Sub-Cells 11a and 11b), exploring the sensitivities of these coastal regions to changes in sediment supply resulting from sea-level rise, climate change and coastal management scenarios. These applications will yield the results needed for high impact publication and the demonstrations that are essential to build confidence in new approaches being transferred into practice.Deliverable 4 will facilitate knowledge transfer of the new methods through a range of dissemination mechanisms, including tutorials, manuals and knowledge transfer workshops. Our open source modelling strategy will initiate a community modelling approach in the coastal research community, at the same time as maximising access by practitioners to the knowledge generated at a time when requirements for coastal adaptation urgently require new predictive capability.

在数十年的时间标准中，沿海形态变化的预测提出了尚未广泛适用的解决方案的科学挑战。然而，改进的预测对于量化沿海侵蚀的风险是必不可少的，这本身就是重要的，也是沿海洪水风险的主要中介之一。尽管“自下而上”基于过程的模型提供了有关水动力，沉积物运输和形态动力学过程的宝贵证据，但它们在数十年的规模上的预测准确性在根本上是从根本上受到限制的。同时，专注于调节沿海形式的主要过程和反馈机制的行为系统模型已被证明在中尺度上具有预测能力（10-100y和10s-100 km），但到目前为止，仅在沿海形式的相当狭窄的子集中，ICOAST项目以相当狭窄的子集为基础。iCoast项目是基于沿海系统概念的，这些模型是沿海的模型，即（II）的II（I）（II）（II）（II）（II），II（I），II（II），II（I），II（I），II（II），II（I），II（I），II（I），II（I），II（I），II（I），II（II），II（I），II（I），II（I），II（II），则是II（I）。（iii）一种扩展的沿海系统映射方法，该方法可用于系统化和形式化有关沿海行为的不同知识来源。该研究集中在四个可交付成果上，这些可交付成果被确定为NERC自然危害主题的主要挑战：可交付可交付1将是整体系统框架。 French等人开发的成功的沿海系统映射方法。使用新的系统映射工具，将扩展并应用于所有英格兰和威尔士。这些新的沿海系统地图既可以取代海岸线管理计划中目前使用的沿海细胞和子细胞，并为更定量的建模提供了基于证据的框架。在其中，将以广泛的空间规模实施流体动力和沉积物传输沿海地区模型，以提供波浪和潮汐强迫和沉积物途径的证据。该系统框架将在开源软件工具中实现，并加上用于不确定性分析的方法。在适当的情况下，将在OpenMI中实施与专有工具的结合。可替代的2将是新一代的降低复杂性行为的地貌模型，以在中期尺度上模拟耦合的沿海沿岸岸边地面行为。该可交付的工作将首先审查现有的行为模块，其中一些模块在Icoast财团内（Scape，Asmita，各种版本的1线海滩模型）内置。具有独特的模型开发经验的团队将对新开发和逐步改进的确定优先级进行深入研究。将扩大基于数据的模型的范围，这些模型将扩大从沿海观测器中快速扩展的数据集的范围。这些模型将集成到系统框架中，以确定新兴的特性并探索关键的敏感性。可移交3将需要在两个沿海地区进行应用和验证，即萨福克沿岸（3C子细胞3C）和利物浦湾（Liverpool Bay）和沿海地区的沿海地区的敏感性变化，从方案。这些应用程序将产生高影响出版物所需的结果，以及对将新方法转移到实践中的信心至关重要的演示。可行4将通过一系列传播机制（包括教程，手动和知识转移研讨会）来促进新方法的知识转移。我们的开源建模策略将在沿海研究界启动一种社区建模方法，同时，在迫切需要新的预测能力时，从业人员最大程度地吸引了从业人员对沿海适应性的知识产生的知识。