iCOAST: Integrated COASTal Sediment Systems

iCOAST：集成 COASTal 沉积物系统

基本信息

批准号：
NE/J005614/1
负责人：
Peter Stansby
金额：
$ 34.14万
依托单位：
University of Manchester
依托单位国家：
英国
项目类别：
Research Grant
财政年份：
2012
资助国家：
英国
起止时间：
2012 至无数据
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FJ005614%2F1
关键词：
iCOAST Integrated COASTal Sediment Systems

项目摘要

Prediction of changing coastal morphology over timescales of decades raises scientific challenges to which there are not yet widely applicable solutions. Yet improved predictions are essential in order to quantify the risk of coastal erosion, which is significant in its own right and also one of the main mediators of coastal flood risk. Whilst 'bottom-up' process-based models provide valuable evidence about hydrodynamic, sediment transport and morphodynamic processes in the short term, their predictive accuracy over scales of decades is for the time being fundamentally limited. Meanwhile, behavioural systems models, that focus on the main processes and feedback mechanisms that regulate coastal form have been shown to have predictive capability at the mesoscale (10-100 years and 10-100 km). However, their application has been limited to a rather narrow sub-set of coastal forms. The iCoast project is based upon a hierarchical systems concept which combines (i) the beneficial features of process-based models, (ii) a new generation of coastal behavioural systems models, and (iii) an extended approach to coastal systems mapping, which can be used to systematise and formalise different sources of knowledge about coastal behaviour. All the software developed within iCoast will be open source and OpenMI compliant. The research is focussed upon four deliverables that have been identified as major challenges in the NERC Natural Hazards Theme: Deliverable 1 will be an overall systems framework. The successful approach to coastal systems mapping developed by French et al. will be extended and applied to all of the England and Wales, making use of a new systems mapping tool. These new coastal systems maps can both supersede the coastal cells and sub-cells currently used in shoreline management planning and provide an evidence-based framework for more quantitative modelling. Therein, hydrodynamic and sediment transport coastal area models will be implemented at a broad spatial scale in order to provide evidence of wave and tidal forcings and sediment pathways. The systems framework will be implemented in open source software tools and coupled with methods for uncertainty analysis. Deliverable 2 will provide a new generation of behavioural geomorphic modules, which can be linked to enable simulation of coupled coastal-estuary-offshore landform behaviour at a meso-scale. Existing reduced complexity behavioural modules, several of which are held in-house within the iCoast consortium (SCAPE, ASMITA, various versions of 1-line beach models) will be reviewed and development and incremental improvement opportunities will be identified. They will be researched intensively by a team with unique experience of this type of model development. The scope of data-based modules that can exploit the growing datasets from coastal observatories will also be extended. The models will be integrated within a systems framework in order to study emergent properties and explore key sensitivities.Deliverable 3 will entail application and validation of two distinct coastal regions: the Suffolk Coast (Sub-Cell 3c) and Liverpool Bay (Sub-Cells 11a/11b), exploring the sensitivities of these coastal regions to changes in sediment supply resulting from sea-level rise, climate change and coastal management scenarios. This will yield the results needed for high impact publication and the demonstrations that are essential to build confidence in new approaches being transferred into practice. Deliverable 4 will facilitate knowledge transfer of the new methods through a range of dissemination mechanisms, including tutorials, manuals and knowledge transfer workshops. Our open source modelling strategy will initiate a community modelling approach in the coastal research community, at the same time as maximising access by practitioners to the knowledge generated at a time when requirements for coastal adaptation urgently require new predictive capability.

在数十年的时间标准中，沿海形态变化的预测提出了尚未广泛适用的解决方案的科学挑战。然而，改进的预测对于量化沿海侵蚀的风险是必不可少的，这本身就是重要的，也是沿海洪水风险的主要中介之一。尽管“自下而上”基于过程的模型提供了有关水动力，沉积物运输和形态动力学过程的宝贵证据，但它们在数十年的规模上的预测准确性在根本上是从根本上受到限制的。同时，侧重于调节沿海形式的主要过程和反馈机制的行为系统模型已显示在中尺度上具有预测能力（10 - 100年和10-100公里）。但是，他们的应用仅限于沿海形式的相当狭窄的子集。 ICOAST项目基于一个层次系统概念，该概念结合了（i）基于过程模型的有益特征，（ii）新一代的沿海行为系统模型，以及（iii）对沿海系统映射的扩展方法，可用于系统化和形式化有关沿海行为的不同知识来源。 ICOAST中开发的所有软件将均为开源和OpenMI符合符合性。这项研究集中在四个可交付成果上，这些可交付成果被确定为NERC自然危害主题中的主要挑战：可交付的1将是一个整体系统框架。 French等人开发的成功的沿海系统映射方法。使用新的系统映射工具，将扩展并应用于所有英格兰和威尔士。这些新的沿海系统地图既可以取代海岸线管理计划中目前使用的沿海细胞和子细胞，并为更定量的建模提供了基于证据的框架。在其中，将以广泛的空间规模实施流体动力和沉积物传输沿海地区模型，以提供波浪和潮汐强迫和沉积物途径的证据。该系统框架将在开源软件工具中实现，并加上用于不确定性分析的方法。可交付的2将提供新一代的行为地貌模块，可以将其链接到能够在中等规模的沿海沿海沿岸沿岸地面行为的模拟。将审查现有的复杂性行为模块，其中几个是在ICOAST联盟内内部持有的（Scape，Asmita，各种版本的1线海滩模型），将审查，开发和增量改进机会。他们将由具有这种模型开发具有独特经验的团队进行深入研究。还将扩大基于数据的模块的范围，这些模块可以从沿海观测值中利用增长的数据集。这些模型将集成在系统框架中，以研究新兴的特性并探索关键的敏感性。可延长的3将需要应用和验证两个不同的沿海地区：萨福克沿岸（3C子塞子3C）和利物浦湾（Liverpool Sub-Cool Sub-cools Bay（子尔）（第11A/11B小区11a/11b），探索沿海地区沿海地区的敏感性变化，从而改变了沿海的沿海地区的兴起，从而改变了沿海地区的兴起。这将产生高影响出版物所需的结果，以及对新方法的信心至关重要的演示。可交付4将通过一系列传播机制（包括教程，手册和知识转移研讨会）来促进新方法的知识转移。我们的开源建模策略将在沿海研究界启动一种社区建模方法，同时，在迫切需要新的预测能力时，从业人员最大程度地吸引了从业人员对沿海适应性的知识产生的知识。