Regional Ecosystem & Biogeochemical Impacts of Ocean Acidification - a modelling study.

区域生态系统

• 批准号: NE/H017089/1
• 负责人: Thomas Anderson
• 金额: $ 12.67万
• 依托单位: NATIONAL OCEANOGRAPHY CENTRE
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2010
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2010 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FH017089%2F1
• 关键词: Regional; Ecosystem; Biogeochemical; Impacts; Ocean

Climate change is one of the main governmental and societal concerns of the current era. The cause, the emissions of huge quantities of carbon dioxide (CO2) by human activities during the industrial era, is accepted by the vast majority of scientists. One of the consequences of increased atmospheric CO2 is Ocean Acidification (OA). The seas absorb a significant proportion of the extra CO2 which reacts in water to increase acidity. This is slightly less well known, at least in the public domain, but is based on uncontroversial and highly accepted scientific understanding and recently verified by precise measurements of the oceans increasing acidity. So over the next few decades the oceans will be impacted by changing climate (increased temperature, changing circulation and mixing) and by increasing acidity. Here it gets complicated. Acidification is known to impact several different processes that are important in regulating the marine ecosystem and different species exhibit different sensitivities. Changing temperature and currents will cause the distributions of particular species to alter and modification of mixing rates (the stirring of the oceans waters) will impact the supply of essential nutrients. Further some physiological processes become more prone to acidity induced effects if those species are subject to increased temperature. The acidity (or carbonate system) of the oceans is also responsive to temperature and to terrestrial effects (changing rainfall or ice melt) that are likely to occur given global warming. In summary predicting the impact of high CO2 (climate and OA) on marine systems is a very complex question. Many scientific experiments and observational programmes are currently investigating how climate and acidity impact the marine system. However the only method we have for trying to synthesise the various impacts mentioned above and make predictions into the future are the development of mathematical models. Within this proposal our aims are to develop existing models that cover the shelf seas around the UK (which have huge resource benefits) and the Arctic region (which is imminently at risk to both climate change and OA) and improve our understanding and certainty of both the magnitude and timescale of impacts. The model system we will use incorporates hydrodynamics, marine chemistry and a representation of marine ecosystems and the processes that drive them, making it ideal to test the combined effects of climate and OA. The models will be forced by the latest and most accurate predictions of climate change and we will compare at least a high emissions scenario - which assumes that globally we do not restrict CO2 production, and a low emissions scenario - which assumes that globally significant steps will be taken to reduce CO2 production. Using information generated by experimental and observational programmes we will improve the description of acidity sensitive chemical and physiological processes in the model. By comparing hind-casts of the model system with observed data, we will establish the accuracy of the model and test uncertainty in individual processes or parameters by sensitivity analysis. We therefore aim to deliver not only predictions of future states but estimates of certainty. The improved understanding of impacts and timescales that this project will generate will be fed directly into the UK Government's advisory process and underpin the development of national and international mitigation and adaptation strategies.

气候变化是当前时代的主要政府和社会问题之一。在工业时代，人类活动的大量二氧化碳（CO2）的原因是绝大多数科学家接受。大气二氧化碳增加的后果之一是海洋酸化（OA）。海洋吸收了相当一部分额外的二氧化碳，从而在水中反应以增加酸度。至少在公共领域中，这一点鲜为人知，但基于毫无争议且高度接受的科学理解，并且最近通过对海洋的精确测量来验证酸度的酸度。因此，在接下来的几十年中，海洋将受到气候变化（温度升高，循环变化和混合）的影响，并且会增加酸度。这里变得复杂。已知酸化会影响在调节海洋生态系统中很重要的几种不同过程，并且不同的物种表现出不同的敏感性。温度和电流的变化将导致特定物种的分布改变和修改混合速率（海水的搅拌）将影响必需营养素的供应。另外，如果这些物种受到温度升高，一些生理过程就会更容易受到酸度的影响。海洋的酸度（或碳酸盐系统）也对温度和陆地作用（改变降雨或冰融化）的反应敏感，这些影响可能发生在全球变暖的情况下。总而言之，预测高二氧化碳（气候和OA）对海洋系统的影响是一个非常复杂的问题。许多科学实验和观察计划目前正在研究气候和酸度如何影响海洋系统。但是，我们试图综合上述各种影响并对未来进行预测的唯一方法是数学模型的发展。在此提案中，我们的目的是开发现有的模型，这些模型涵盖英国各地的货架海（具有巨大的资源益处）和北极地区（北极地区（这既面临气候变化和OA的风险），并提高我们对影响的大小和时间表的理解和确定性。我们将使用的模型系统结合了流体动力学，海洋化学和海洋生态系统的表示以及驱动它们的过程，使其非常适合测试气候和OA的综合作用。这些模型将受到气候变化的最新和最准确的预测，我们将至少比较高排放场景 - 假设我们在全球范围内不限制二氧化碳的产量，并且排放较低的情况 - 假设将采取全球重要的步骤来减少二氧化碳的产量。使用实验和观察程序产生的信息，我们将改善模型中酸度敏感的化学和生理过程的描述。通过将模型系统的后部铸造与观察到的数据进行比较，我们将通过灵敏度分析确定模型或参数中的不确定性的准确性。因此，我们的目标不仅要对未来国家的预测进行预测，还要提供确定性的估计。对该项目将产生的影响和时间表的改进，将直接馈入英国政府的咨询过程，并支持国家和国际缓解和适应策略的发展。