ECOLOGY FACTORS REGULATING OUTBREAKS OF HANTAVIRUS IN CHILE

调节智利汉坦病毒爆发的生态因素

• 批准号: 6352633
• 负责人: TERRY YATES
• 金额: $ 10.05万
• 依托单位: UNIVERSITY OF NEW MEXICO
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2000
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2000-09-01 至 2001-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/6352633
• 关键词: Hantavirus; Marsupialia; Rodentias; South America; climate; clinical research; cooperative study; disease outbreaks; disease reservoirs; ecology; emerging infectious disease; epizootiology; field study; geographic site; human data; information systems; respiratory disorder epidemiology

This project will develop a spatially explicit model using Geographic Information System (GIS) technology to predict environmental correlates of high human hantaviral risk in Chile. A combination of descriptive and analytical techniques will be used in the study both in the field and the laboratory. The major hypotheses to be tested are that; 1) surges in rodent populations can be predicted using satellite-derived climate and environmental data from a GIS, 2) fluctuations in human hantavirus infection can be predicted from fluctuations in rodent populations derived from rodent surveillance and data from hypothesis one, 3) GIS data combined with generalized models can be developed to provide techniques to predict environmental change and many human infections transmitted by animals and, 4) virus titers in blood and excretions are higher during the spring breeding pulse of reservoir rodents when young of the year are dispersing. Results from these studies will provide information on the degree of human risk associated with this virus and allow predictions regarding future outbreaks.

该项目将利用地理信息系统（GIS）技术开发一个空间明确的模型，以预测智利人类汉坦病毒高风险的环境相关性。现场和实验室研究将结合描述性和分析技术。要检验的主要假设是： 1) 使用来自 GIS 的卫星气候和环境数据可以预测啮齿动物数量的激增，2) 人类汉坦病毒感染的波动可以通过啮齿动物监测和假设一数据得出的啮齿动物数量波动进行预测，3) GIS 数据与广义模型相结合，可以开发出预测环境变化和许多由动物传播的人类感染的技术，4) 在一年中幼年的储存啮齿动物的春季繁殖期，血液和排泄物中的病毒滴度较高正在散去。这些研究的结果将提供与这种病毒相关的人类风险程度的信息，并可以预测未来的疫情爆发。