Constraints on the tempo and magnitude of explosive arc volcanism: facilitating long-term ash fall hazard assessments
对弧形火山爆发速度和强度的限制:促进长期火山灰坠落危险评估
基本信息
- 批准号:MR/S035478/1
- 负责人:
- 金额:$ 138.2万
- 依托单位:
- 依托单位国家:英国
- 项目类别:Fellowship
- 财政年份:2019
- 资助国家:英国
- 起止时间:2019 至 无数据
- 项目状态:已结题
- 来源:
- 关键词:
项目摘要
Explosive volcanic eruptions have devastating impacts in near-vent areas where pyroclastic density currents can cause significant loss of life, yet the injection of large volumes of ash into the atmosphere and its subsequent dispersal over hundreds to thousands of kilometres, pose significant and far-reaching hazards. Ash fall is a severe and wide-ranging volcanic hazard; causing roof collapse, health (respiratory) and agricultural issues and wide-scale interruptions to essential infrastructure (e.g., electricity, food/water supplies; roads and rail closures). Even ash emitted during moderately explosive eruptions can ground air traffic as was demonstrated by the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption (Iceland). As such widespread volcanic ash dispersals present huge economic and societal costs. Disturbingly, 800 million people live within 100 km of active volcanoes globally, yet statistical studies of detailed eruption databases (e.g., Japan) reveal significant under-recording of past volcanic eruptions deeper in time. Our understanding of the magnitude and frequency of eruptions at a particular volcano is typically skewed to recent activities, because records of older eruptions are fragmentary often owing to erosion and/or burial by more recent eruptions. The better-preserved, shorter-term records, however, do not necessarily reflect the full range of volcanic activity, or variations in the tempo of activity. This is a major obstacle for long-term volcanic hazard assessments and hampers our ability to: i) determine changing eruption-rates through time, ii) evaluate magnitude-frequency relationships and iii) project the recurrence intervals of hazardous ash dispersals.This research will overcome this impasse and reconstruct comprehensive long-term records of explosive volcanism for productive arc volcanoes. It will exploit the under-utilised record of ash layers preserved in dense networks of marine sediment cores. These continuous sequences represent unprecedented repositories of ash fall (preserved as visible and microscopic deposits), which are not susceptible to destructive near-source processes. Using state-of-the-art geochemical 'fingerprinting' techniques, it is possible to pinpoint the volcanic source of the marine ash layers, whilst tracing these ash fall events across a network of cores provides a unique opportunity to computationally model and map ash dispersals, and calculate eruption magnitudes. Cutting-edge argon-argon dating techniques to directly date the ash deposits, will reveal the tempo of past explosive eruptions at an individual volcano, and importantly determine the recurrence intervals of widespread hazardous volcanic ash dispersals from these volcanoes. With evidence for near-source under-reporting of explosive volcanic activity emanating from Japanese eruption records, this research will begin by utilising a wealth of marine sediment records from around the Japanese Islands, including those of the International Ocean Discovery Programme (IODP) and the Geological Survey of Japan (AIST). This research will then look to expand into other productive volcanic arc settings, particularly those that are vulnerable owing to inadequate records of explosive volcanism (e.g., circum-Pacific volcanic arcs). These new offshore volcanological records will be examined in partnership with those directly responsible for hazard/risk assessments at individual volcanoes and policy-makers working in this field.
火山喷发对火山喷发口附近地区造成毁灭性影响,火山碎屑密度流可能造成重大生命损失,但大量火山灰喷入大气并随后扩散数百至数千公里,造成重大而深远的影响。火山灰坠落是一种严重且范围广泛的火山灾害;导致屋顶塌陷、健康(呼吸)和农业问题以及重要基础设施的大范围中断。 (例如,电力、食品/水供应;道路和铁路关闭)。正如 2010 年埃亚菲亚德拉冰盖火山喷发(冰岛)所证明的那样,即使是中度爆炸性喷发期间排放的火山灰也会影响地面交通。令人不安的是,全球有 8 亿人生活在距活火山 100 公里范围内,但尚未对详细的喷发数据库进行统计研究。 (例如日本)揭示了对过去火山喷发的更深入的记录不足,我们对特定火山喷发的强度和频率的理解通常偏向于最近的活动,因为较早的喷发记录往往由于侵蚀和破坏而变得支离破碎。然而,保存较好的短期记录并不一定反映火山活动的全部范围或活动节奏的变化,这是一个主要障碍。长期火山灾害评估,并妨碍我们的能力:i) 确定随时间变化的喷发率,ii) 评估震级-频率关系,以及 iii) 预测危险火山灰扩散的复发间隔。这项研究将克服这一僵局并重建它将利用密集的海洋沉积物核心网络中保存的未充分利用的火山灰层记录,这些连续的序列代表了前所未有的火山灰降落库。 (以可见和微观沉积物形式保存),不易受到破坏性近源过程的影响,使用最先进的地球化学“指纹”技术,可以在追踪的同时查明海洋火山灰层的火山源。这些火山灰落在岩心网络上的事件提供了一个独特的机会,可以对火山灰扩散进行计算建模和绘制地图,并计算尖端的氩-氩测年技术,以直接确定火山灰沉积物的年代。这项研究将揭示单个火山过去爆发性喷发的速度,并重要地确定这些火山广泛危险的火山灰扩散的复发间隔,有证据表明日本喷发记录中存在近源漏报的爆发性火山活动。该研究将首先利用日本列岛周围的大量海洋沉积物记录,包括国际海洋发现计划 (IODP) 和日本地质调查局 (AIST) 的记录。扩展到其他多产的火山弧环境,特别是那些容易受到火山爆发记录不足影响的环境(例如环太平洋火山弧),这些新的近海火山记录将与直接负责危害/风险评估的人员合作进行审查。个别火山和在该领域工作的政策制定者。
项目成果
期刊论文数量(9)
专著数量(0)
科研奖励数量(0)
会议论文数量(0)
专利数量(0)
How reliable is µXRF core scanning at detecting tephra layers in sedimentary records? A case study using the Lake Suigetsu archive (central Japan)
µXRF 岩心扫描在检测沉积记录中的火山灰层方面有多可靠?
- DOI:10.1002/jqs.3432
- 发表时间:2022-05-09
- 期刊:
- 影响因子:2.3
- 作者:D. McLean;P. Albert;G. Schlolaut;H. Lamb;M. Marshall;A. Brauer;J. Wade;T. Nakagawa;V. Smith
- 通讯作者:V. Smith
Cryptotephra preserved in Lake Suigetsu (SG14 core) reveals the eruption timing and distribution of ash fall from Japanese volcanoes during the Late-glacial to early Holocene
水月湖(SG14核心)中保存的隐壳揭示了晚冰期至全新世早期日本火山喷发的时间和火山灰的分布
- DOI:http://dx.10.1016/j.quascirev.2023.108376
- 发表时间:2024
- 期刊:
- 影响因子:4
- 作者:Albert P
- 通讯作者:Albert P
Linking the Mediterranean MIS 5 tephra markers to Campi Flegrei (southern Italy) 109-92 ka explosive activity and refining the chronology of MIS 5c-d millennial-scale climate variability
将地中海 MIS 5 火山灰标记与 Campi Flegrei(意大利南部)109-92 ka 爆炸活动联系起来,并完善 MIS 5c-d 千禧年尺度气候变化的年表
- DOI:http://dx.10.1016/j.gloplacha.2022.103785
- 发表时间:2022
- 期刊:
- 影响因子:3.9
- 作者:Monaco L
- 通讯作者:Monaco L
Distal ash fall from the mid-Holocene eruption of Mount Hudson (H2) discovered in the Falkland Islands: New possibilities for Southern Hemisphere archive synchronisation
在福克兰群岛发现的哈德逊山(H2)全新世中期喷发的远端火山灰:南半球档案同步的新可能性
- DOI:http://dx.10.1016/j.quascirev.2021.107074
- 发表时间:2021
- 期刊:
- 影响因子:4
- 作者:Panaretos P
- 通讯作者:Panaretos P
Evidence for a large-magnitude Holocene eruption of Mount Rittmann (Antarctica): A volcanological reconstruction using the marine tephra record
里特曼山(南极洲)全新世大规模喷发的证据:利用海洋火山灰记录进行火山学重建
- DOI:http://dx.10.1016/j.quascirev.2020.106629
- 发表时间:2020
- 期刊:
- 影响因子:4
- 作者:Di Roberto A
- 通讯作者:Di Roberto A
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Paul Albert其他文献
How Important is Importance Sampling for Deep Budgeted Training?
重要性抽样对于深度预算培训有多重要?
- DOI:
10.18280/ijht.390108 - 发表时间:
2021-10-27 - 期刊:
- 影响因子:0
- 作者:
Eric Arazo;Diego Ortego;Paul Albert;N. O’Connor;Kevin McGuinness - 通讯作者:
Kevin McGuinness
Prevention of events with angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibition (the PEACE study design). Prevention of Events with Angiotensin-Converting Enzyme Inhibition.
通过抑制血管紧张素转换酶来预防事件(PEACE 研究设计)。
- DOI:
10.1016/s0002-9149(98)00488-3 - 发表时间:
1998-08-06 - 期刊:
- 影响因子:0
- 作者:
M. Pfeffer;M. Domanski;Y. Rosenberg;J. Verter;N. Geller;Paul Albert;J. Hsia;E. Braunwald - 通讯作者:
E. Braunwald
Multi-Objective Interpolation Training for Robustness to Label Noise
多目标插值训练以增强噪声标签的鲁棒性
- DOI:
10.1109/cvpr46437.2021.00654 - 发表时间:
2020-12-08 - 期刊:
- 影响因子:0
- 作者:
Diego Ortego;Eric Arazo;Paul Albert;N. O’Connor;Kevin McGuinness - 通讯作者:
Kevin McGuinness
Unsupervised domain adaptation and super resolution on drone images for autonomous dry herbage biomass estimation
无人机图像的无监督域适应和超分辨率用于自主干草生物量估计
- DOI:
10.1109/cvprw56347.2022.00170 - 发表时间:
2022-04-18 - 期刊:
- 影响因子:0
- 作者:
Paul Albert;Mohamed Saadeldin;Badri Narayanan;Jaime B. Fern;ez;ez;Brian Mac Namee;D. Hennessey;N. O’Connor;Kevin McGuinness - 通讯作者:
Kevin McGuinness
Pseudo-Labeling and Confirmation Bias in Deep Semi-Supervised Learning
深度半监督学习中的伪标签和确认偏差
- DOI:
10.1109/ijcnn48605.2020.9207304 - 发表时间:
2019-08-08 - 期刊:
- 影响因子:0
- 作者:
Eric Arazo;Diego Ortego;Paul Albert;N. O’Connor;Kevin McGuinness - 通讯作者:
Kevin McGuinness
Paul Albert的其他文献
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{{ truncateString('Paul Albert', 18)}}的其他基金
Constraints on the tempo and magnitude of explosive volcanism: facilitating long-term ash fall hazard assessments
对爆发性火山活动的速度和强度的限制:促进长期火山灰坠落危险评估
- 批准号:
MR/Y011767/1 - 财政年份:2024
- 资助金额:
$ 138.2万 - 项目类别:
Fellowship
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Constraints on the tempo and magnitude of explosive volcanism: facilitating long-term ash fall hazard assessments
对爆发性火山活动的速度和强度的限制:促进长期火山灰坠落危险评估
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Understanding of frequency-magnitude distribution in terms of the BK model and the interaction among heat, fluid pressure, and porosity
根据 BK 模型理解频率-幅度分布以及热量、流体压力和孔隙率之间的相互作用
- 批准号:
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