Constraints on the tempo and magnitude of explosive arc volcanism: facilitating long-term ash fall hazard assessments

对弧形火山爆发速度和强度的限制：促进长期火山灰坠落危险评估

• 批准号: MR/S035478/1
• 负责人: Paul Albert
• 金额: $ 138.2万
• 依托单位: Swansea University
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Fellowship
• 财政年份: 2019
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2019 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=MR%2FS035478%2F1
• 关键词: Constraints; tempo; magnitude; explosive; arc

Explosive volcanic eruptions have devastating impacts in near-vent areas where pyroclastic density currents can cause significant loss of life, yet the injection of large volumes of ash into the atmosphere and its subsequent dispersal over hundreds to thousands of kilometres, pose significant and far-reaching hazards. Ash fall is a severe and wide-ranging volcanic hazard; causing roof collapse, health (respiratory) and agricultural issues and wide-scale interruptions to essential infrastructure (e.g., electricity, food/water supplies; roads and rail closures). Even ash emitted during moderately explosive eruptions can ground air traffic as was demonstrated by the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption (Iceland). As such widespread volcanic ash dispersals present huge economic and societal costs. Disturbingly, 800 million people live within 100 km of active volcanoes globally, yet statistical studies of detailed eruption databases (e.g., Japan) reveal significant under-recording of past volcanic eruptions deeper in time. Our understanding of the magnitude and frequency of eruptions at a particular volcano is typically skewed to recent activities, because records of older eruptions are fragmentary often owing to erosion and/or burial by more recent eruptions. The better-preserved, shorter-term records, however, do not necessarily reflect the full range of volcanic activity, or variations in the tempo of activity. This is a major obstacle for long-term volcanic hazard assessments and hampers our ability to: i) determine changing eruption-rates through time, ii) evaluate magnitude-frequency relationships and iii) project the recurrence intervals of hazardous ash dispersals.This research will overcome this impasse and reconstruct comprehensive long-term records of explosive volcanism for productive arc volcanoes. It will exploit the under-utilised record of ash layers preserved in dense networks of marine sediment cores. These continuous sequences represent unprecedented repositories of ash fall (preserved as visible and microscopic deposits), which are not susceptible to destructive near-source processes. Using state-of-the-art geochemical 'fingerprinting' techniques, it is possible to pinpoint the volcanic source of the marine ash layers, whilst tracing these ash fall events across a network of cores provides a unique opportunity to computationally model and map ash dispersals, and calculate eruption magnitudes. Cutting-edge argon-argon dating techniques to directly date the ash deposits, will reveal the tempo of past explosive eruptions at an individual volcano, and importantly determine the recurrence intervals of widespread hazardous volcanic ash dispersals from these volcanoes. With evidence for near-source under-reporting of explosive volcanic activity emanating from Japanese eruption records, this research will begin by utilising a wealth of marine sediment records from around the Japanese Islands, including those of the International Ocean Discovery Programme (IODP) and the Geological Survey of Japan (AIST). This research will then look to expand into other productive volcanic arc settings, particularly those that are vulnerable owing to inadequate records of explosive volcanism (e.g., circum-Pacific volcanic arcs). These new offshore volcanological records will be examined in partnership with those directly responsible for hazard/risk assessments at individual volcanoes and policy-makers working in this field.

爆炸性的火山喷发在近气中产生了毁灭性的影响，在这些区域中，火山碎屑密度电流会造成重大生命损失，但将大量灰分注射到大气中及其随后的数百万至数千公里的分散，构成了巨大的和远距离的危害。灰跌是一种严重而宽阔的火山危害；导致屋顶塌陷，健康（呼吸道）和农业问题以及对基本基础设施的大规模中断（例如电力，食品/水供应；道路和铁路封闭）。正如2010年Eyjafjallajökull爆发（冰岛）所证明的那样，甚至在中等爆炸性喷发期间发出的灰烬也可以接地空中交通。因此，这种宽度的火山灰分散呈现出巨大的经济和社会成本。令人不安的是，全球有8亿人生活在100公里以内，但对详细爆发数据库（例如日本）的统计研究显示，过去火山喷发的重大不足，时间更深。我们对特定火山喷发的大小和频率的理解通常偏向最近的活动，因为旧喷发的记录通常是由于最近的喷发侵蚀和/或埋葬而碎片的。但是，保存更好的较短的记录并不一定反映了活动速度的全部火山活动或变化。这是长期火山危害评估的主要障碍，并阻碍了我们的能力：i）确定随着时间的推移变化的喷发率，ii）评估幅度频率关系和iii）iii）投影危险灰分分散体的复发间隔。这项研究将克服这种僵局，并重建生产弧火山爆炸性火山的综合长期记录。它将利用在海洋沉积物核心密集网络中保存的灰分层的利用不足的记录。这些连续的序列代表了灰落的前所未有的存储库（保存为可见的和微观的沉积物），这些存储量不容易受到破坏性近源过程的影响。使用最先进的地球化学“指纹”技术，可以确定海洋灰层的火山源，同时在核心网络中追踪这些灰烬秋天事件为计算模型和映射灰分分散提供了独特的机会，并计算出爆发的放大。尖端的氩气阿尔贡约会技术可以直接与灰分沉积物约会，将揭示在单个火山上爆炸的速度，并重要地确定从这些火山中宽度危险的火山灰分扩散的复发间隔。有了日本喷发记录发出的爆炸性火山活动的近乎源头报告的证据，这项研究将首先利用日本群岛周围的大量海洋沉积物记录，包括国际海洋发现计划（IODP）和日本地质调查局（AIST）。然后，这项研究将旨在扩展到其他产品火山弧设置，尤其是由于爆炸性火山爆发不足的情况（例如，太平洋火山弧）而易受伤害。这些新的海上火山学记录将与直接负责在该领域工作的单个火山和政策制定者的危害/风险评估的人合作检查。

项目成果

Cryptotephra preserved in Lake Suigetsu (SG14 core) reveals the eruption timing and distribution of ash fall from Japanese volcanoes during the late-glacial to early Holocene

• DOI: 10.1016/j.quascirev.2023.108376
• 发表时间: 2024-01
• 期刊: Quaternary Science Reviews
• 影响因子: 4
• 作者: P. Albert;D. McLean;Hannah M. Buckland;Takehiko Suzuki;Gwydion Jones;R. Staff;Sophie Vineberg;I. Kitaba;Keitaro Yamada;Hiroshi Moriwaki;Daisuke Ishimura;K. Ikehara;Christina J. Manning;Takeshi Nakagawa;Victoria C. Smith

Frequent activity on Vulcano (Italy) spanning the last 80 ky: New insights from the chemo-stratigraphy of the Brown Tuffs

• DOI: 10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2020.107079
• 发表时间: 2020-11
• 期刊: Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research
• 影响因子: 2.9
• 作者: S. Meschiari;P. Albert;F. Lucchi;R. Sulpizio;V. Smith;R. Kearney;C. Tranne

Distal ash fall from the mid-Holocene eruption of Mount Hudson (H2) discovered in the Falkland Islands: New possibilities for Southern Hemisphere archive synchronisation

在福克兰群岛发现的哈德逊山（H2）全新世中期喷发的远端火山灰：南半球档案同步的新可能性

• DOI: 10.1016/j.quascirev.2021.107074
• 发表时间: 2021
• 期刊: Quaternary Science Reviews
• 影响因子: 4
• 作者: Panaretos P

Evidence for a large-magnitude Holocene eruption of Mount Rittmann (Antarctica): A volcanological reconstruction using the marine tephra record

里特曼山（南极洲）全新世大规模喷发的证据：利用海洋火山灰记录进行火山学重建

• DOI: 10.1016/j.quascirev.2020.106629
• 发表时间: 2020
• 期刊: Quaternary Science Reviews
• 影响因子: 4
• 作者: Di Roberto A

Linking the Mediterranean MIS 5 tephra markers to Campi Flegrei (southern Italy) 109-92 ka explosive activity and refining the chronology of MIS 5c-d millennial-scale climate variability

将地中海 MIS 5 火山灰标记与 Campi Flegrei（意大利南部）109-92 k​​a 爆炸活动联系起来，并完善 MIS 5c-d 千禧年尺度气候变化的年表

• DOI: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2022.103785
• 发表时间: 2022
• 期刊: Global and Planetary Change
• 影响因子: 3.9
• 作者: Monaco L