Post-Brexit trade and investment: explaining the issues, formulating trade agreements and understanding the effect on UK foreign direct investment

英国脱欧后的贸易和投资：解释问题、制定贸易协定并了解对英国外国直接投资的影响

基本信息

批准号：
ES/T002050/1
负责人：
Leonard Winters
金额：
$ 17.42万
依托单位：
University of Sussex
依托单位国家：
英国
项目类别：
Research Grant
财政年份：
2019
资助国家：
英国
起止时间：
2019 至无数据
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=ES%2FT002050%2F1
关键词：
Post Brexit trade investment explaining

项目摘要

This proposal describes three exercises designed to advance the public understanding of and policy-making engagement with the Brexit process. Video Explainers:Since early 2017, the UKTPO has produced four three-minute animated videos that help to explain the issues and the effects of Brexit. These have enabled complex issues to be presented in an engaging and comprehensible manner. They have reached wide audiences and, through this, may have helped to inform public opinion and affect political decisions. They take great care to use layman's terms and avoid complex terminology and jargon. We propose to issue four new videos over the next eight months. Brexit defies prediction, but all animations will be on highly pertinent issues in current debates that are not fully understood by many policymakers, MPs, journalists and the public. Our initial list is:- Tracing Brexit effects to constituency level.- Rolling over existing trade agreements.- Trade remedies.- EU trade negotiating structures.Each video will be published on the University of Sussex's Vimeo and You Tube channels, the UK Trade Policy Observatory website and UK in a Changing Europe's website. Each will be accompanied by a press release to the UKTPO's media contacts and notification to the UKTPO's list of 1000+contacts. Each will also be posted on the University of Sussex social media accounts (Twitter and Facebook) and the UKTPO's Twitter account. It is hoped that UKiCE would also share the videos across their social media platforms. Brexit and Foreign Direct Investment: UKTPO research has already shown that, after the referendum, aggregate FDI declined relative to expectations (Briefing Paper No. 23). In addition, certain car manufacturers made clear that Brexit is at least a contextual factor behind their decisions to run down UK operations. We aim to extend this work, first by disentangling decisions deriving from the general uncertainty of the Brexit process from those reflecting the erosion of the UK's attraction as an export-platform. A partial approach to this will be to relate the extent of the exit to the potential change in trading conditions post-Brexit. For example, in goods it may relate to the tariffs that would follow a 'no-deal' Brexit; in services, the loss of the Single Market will similarly impede UK access to EU markets to degrees that vary across sectors. In addition, we will compare firms' investment in the UK with that elsewhere (EU and non-EU) and also explore differences between greenfield FDI and M&A FDI. Rules of Thumb for prioritising FTAs: DIT has informally expressed interest in having such guidance. Obviously political dimensions are important but simple rules of thumb (or a checklist) of economic factors, which could be used by non-specialists, would be a useful supplement. Some UKTPO Fellows created one such set of rules in 2004. Experience since the Brexit referendum has suggested that the current rules need to be updated to reflect recent developments in theory, data and patterns of world trade. The aim is to create an operational bridge between simple clear concepts and identifiable data. As well as obvious issues such as proximity, size, existing levels of trade and protection and the similarity of income levels, social norms and regulatory regimes - all of which require quite subtle handling to relate rules of thumb to economic welfare - we will specifically add services, FDI and value-chains to the mix.The output would be a short analytical manual accompanied by guidance on available data. To the maximum extent possible the measures recommended will be operationalised in the TradeSift software, which has been developed by some UKTPO Fellows. The intended users are government officials with time and budget pressures, think tank analysts and academics teaching non-modelling courses.

该提案描述了三项旨在促进公众对英国脱欧进程的理解和政策制定参与的活动。视频讲解员：自 2017 年初以来，UKTPO 制作了四个三分钟的动画视频，帮助解释英国退欧的问题和影响。这些使得复杂的问题能够以一种引人入胜且易于理解的方式呈现。它们拥有广泛的受众，因此可能有助于传达公众舆论并影响政治决策。他们非常谨慎地使用通俗易懂的术语，避免使用复杂的术语和行话。我们建议在接下来的八个月内发布四个新视频。英国脱欧违背了预测，但所有动画都将涉及当前辩论中高度相关的问题，而许多政策制定者、国会议员、记者和公众尚未完全理解这些问题。我们的初始清单是：- 追踪英国脱欧对选区层面的影响。- 延续现有贸易协定。- 贸易补救措施。- 欧盟贸易谈判结构。每个视频都将发布在萨塞克斯大学的 Vimeo 和 You Tube 频道、英国贸易政策天文台网站和英国变化中的欧洲网站。每份文件都将附有向 UKTPO 媒体联系人发送的新闻稿以及向 UKTPO 1000 多名联系人名单发出的通知。每条信息还将发布在苏塞克斯大学社交媒体帐户（Twitter 和 Facebook）和 UKTPO 的 Twitter 帐户上。希望 UKiCE 也能在其社交媒体平台上分享这些视频。英国脱欧和外国直接投资：UKTPO 研究已经表明，公投后，外国直接投资总额相对于预期有所下降（简报第 23 号）。此外，某些汽车制造商明确表示，英国脱欧至少是他们决定缩减英国业务的背景因素。我们的目标是扩展这项工作，首先将因脱欧进程的普遍不确定性而产生的决策与反映英国作为出口平台吸引力下降的决策区分开来。对此的部分方法是将退出程度与英国脱欧后交易条件的潜在变化联系起来。例如，在商品方面，它可能与“无协议”脱欧后的关税有关；在服务业，单一市场的丧失同样会阻碍英国进入欧盟市场，其程度因行业而异。此外，我们还将比较企业在英国和其他地方（欧盟和非欧盟）的投资，并探讨绿地 FDI 和并购 FDI 之间的差异。确定自由贸易协定优先顺序的经验法则：DIT 已非正式地表示有兴趣获得此类指导。显然，政治维度很重要，但非专业人士可以使用的经济因素的简单经验法则（或清单）将是一个有用的补充。一些 UKTPO 研究员于 2004 年制定了一套这样的规则。英国脱欧公投以来的经验表明，现行规则需要更新，以反映世界贸易理论、数据和模式的最新发展。目的是在简单清晰的概念和可识别数据之间建立一座可操作的桥梁。除了诸如邻近性、规模、现有贸易和保护水平以及收入水平、社会规范和监管制度的相似性等明显问题外，所有这些问题都需要非常微妙的处理才能将经验法则与经济福利联系起来，我们将特别添加服务、外国直接投资和价值链的组合。产出将是一份简短的分析手册，并附有可用数据的指导。建议的措施将在最大程度上在由一些 UKTPO 研究员开发的 TradeSift 软件中实施。目标用户是有时间和预算压力的政府官员、智库分析师和教授非建模课程的学者。