Cold Related Deaths and the Effect of Nudging the Elderly: Evidence from the Longitudinal Studies

与寒冷相关的死亡和轻推老年人的效果：来自纵向研究的证据

• 批准号: ES/K004298/1
• 负责人: Ian Walker
• 金额: $ 20.04万
• 依托单位: Lancaster University
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2012
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2012 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=ES%2FK004298%2F1
• 关键词: Cold; Related; Deaths; Effect; Nudging

The existing official methodology to measure cold-related deaths is crude - just a comparison of average mortality rates across seasons. Moreover extremely strong inferences have been made about the impact of cold through simple interpolation. Previous research has shown that although mortality does increase as it gets colder, temperature only explains a small amount of the variance in winter mortality, and high levels of excess winter mortality can occur during relatively mild winters. US evidence suggests that latitude plays a role - places where it is usually cold have few cold related deaths. There is a strong suggestion, although never formally tested, that the relationship is highly nonlinear and that unexpected cold is more dangerous than expected cold weather. Thus, the relationship between temperature and mortality is complex. In particular, the dynamic effects and nonlinearities in the relationship requires serious attention. We propose to provide a detailed investigation of the impact of cold on mortality - taking account of dynamics, nonlinearities, and socio-economic characteristics. In addition we aim to investigate how winter fuel payments (WFP) affects the relationship. The idea of WFP is to provide cash to keep old people warm when it's cold - so as to keep them well. So, if WFP "works", it does so by "nudging" household spending on fuel, so raising heat levels, and reducing the adverse effects of cold on health - by more than an equivalent rise in the state pension . Evidence on the extent to which the labeling of transfers affects how they are spent is mixed but there has been much talk of policy that can "nudge" individual decision making . WFP provides an opportunity to demonstrate the effectiveness of one such idea. Indeed, it provides an unusually "clean" test because of the nature of its implementation - in particular, it is not means-tested and the take-up rate is close to 100% so there is no selection issue to take account of. Moreover, the UK provides an excellent environment to test the proposition that it affects the relationship between mortality and weather separately from a general mortality effect because it is a long county and has wide variation in weather patterns across the country.WFP is a tax-free payment made to individuals aged 60 or over living in GB to help them with their heating costs over the winter months. Older people are targeted since they are particularly vulnerable to the effects of cold weather during the winter months and are more likely to be on fixed incomes. The basic Winter Fuel payment is made to more than 12 million people in GB (of which 1.1m are in Scotland). The total cost was over £2.7 billion last year. WFP amounts to about 10% of an average retired household total annual fuel bill. The history of WFP provides a number of opportunities to investigate the extent to which WFP has had a causal impact on the seasonal and weather patterns in mortality.

现有的测量与冷死亡的官方方法是原始的 - 只是季节平均死亡率的比较。此外，已经通过简单的插值来提供有关冷的影响的非常强大的信息。先前的研究表明，尽管死亡率会随着变冷而增加，但温度仅解释了冬季死亡率的少量差异，并且在相对温和的冬季期间可能会发生高水平的冬季死亡率。美国的证据表明，纬度起着作用 - 通常冷的地方几乎没有冷的相关死亡。有一个强有力的建议，尽管从未正式测试过，但这种关系是高度非线性的，意外感冒比预期的寒冷更危险。那，温度与死亡率之间的关系很复杂。特别是，关系中的动态效应和非线性需要严重关注。我们建议对寒冷对死亡率的影响进行详细研究 - 考虑到动态，非线性和社会经济特征。此外，我们旨在调查冬季燃料支付（WFP）如何影响关系。粮食计划署的想法是提供现金，以使老年人在寒冷时保持温暖 - 以使他们保持健康。因此，如果WFP“工作”，则可以通过“轻推”燃料上的家庭支出，从而提高热量水平，并降低寒冷对健康的不利影响，而不仅仅是该州销售的同等增长。关于转移标签的程度的证据影响了它们的消费方式，但人们已经有很多可以“推动”个人决策的政策。粮食计划署提供了一个机会来展示一个这样的想法的有效性。的确，由于其实施的性质，它提供了异常的“干净”测试 - 特别是，它不是卑鄙的测试，并且增加率接近100％，因此没有选择问题要考虑。此外，英国提供了一个极好的环境，可以测试该提议，即它与一般死亡率效应分开影响死亡率和天气之间的关系，因为它是长期的，并且在全国范围内的天气模式有很大差异。WFP是向60岁或超过60岁以上的人支付的免税付款，以帮助他们在冬季冬季帮助他们在冬季供暖成本。老年人是针对性的，因为他们特别容易受到冬季寒冷天气的影响，并且更有可能以固定收益为单位。基本的冬季燃料支付是向GB中超过1200万人（苏格兰110万人）支付的。去年的总成本超过27亿英镑。粮食计划署约为平均退休家庭年度燃油账单的约10％。粮食计划署的历史提供了许多机会来研究粮食计划署对死亡率的季节性和天气模式产生因果关系的程度。

项目成果

Heterogeneous effects of missing out on a place at a preferred secondary school in England

错过英格兰首选中学的异质效应

• DOI: 10.1016/j.econedurev.2021.102082
• 发表时间: 2021
• 期刊: Economics of Education Review
• 影响因子: 2.2
• 作者: Gorman E

The Role of Faith and Faith Schooling in Educational, Economic, and Faith Outcomes

信仰和信仰学校教育在教育、经济和信仰成果中的作用

• 发表时间: 2020
• 作者: Mckendrick A

Keeping Faith; the the Short and Long Term Impacts of Faith and Faith Schools

坚守信念；

• 发表时间: 2022
• 作者: McKendrick, A.

Adolescent School Bullying Victimisation and Later Life Outcomes

青少年校园欺凌受害和以后的生活结果

• 发表时间: 2021
• 期刊: Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics
• 影响因子: 2.5
• 作者: Gorman, E