VOLCANIC CLASSIC: VOLCANIC eruptions and CLimAte response - Stratospheric Sulfate isotopes in Ice Cores, data assimilation, and climate sensitivity

火山经典：火山喷发和气候响应 - 冰芯中的平流层硫酸盐同位素、数据同化和气候敏感性

• 批准号: EP/Z000645/1
• 负责人: Andrea Burke
• 金额: $ 331.86万
• 依托单位: University of St Andrews
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2024
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2024 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=EP%2FZ000645%2F1
• 关键词: VOLCANIC; CLASSIC; eruptions; CLimAte; response

How does Earth's climate respond to perturbation? Despite decades of work, this fundamental question remains difficult to answer, with a wide range of climate sensitivities to external forcing persisting in state-of-the-art models. To improve understanding of the climate system and narrow the range of uncertainties in future climate projections, innovative new approaches are required. Here I propose a novel strategy that will provide unique new tests of climate models and emergent constraints on climate sensitivity, by harnessing the record of major volcanic eruptions.Volcanic eruptions exert an enormous influence on climate, as their sulfate aerosols reflect incoming sunlight, driving abrupt cooling on timescales of 1-5 years. However our ability to read this record is currently limited by uncertainties in volcanic forcing (the impact of eruptions on incoming radiation - primarily a function of stratospheric sulfate) and global climate response. By using cutting edge new technology to measure sulfur isotopes in ice cores, I will uniquely constrain stratospheric sulfate and eruption latitude and season, transforming knowledge of past volcanic forcing. I will compare this to new and improved reconstructions of global climate response, achieved by incorporating new, globally-distributed paleoclimate records into model-data assimilation products. By examining the climate response to each of the 233 major eruptions of the last 2000 years, I will provide robust observational constraints on volcanic climate sensitivity. I will use these to test sensitivity and feedbacks in state-of-the-art climate models. These tests will inform both understanding of the wide range of sensitivity to aerosols in current models and the debate on controversial geoengineering schemes. As model response to volcanoes and CO2 are linked, this work will ultimately be used to refine the range of sensitivity to CO2 rise and improve projections of future climate.

地球的气候如何应对扰动？尽管工作了数十年，但这个基本问题仍然很难回答，对最新模型中的外部强迫持续存在广泛的气候敏感性。为了提高对气候系统的了解并缩小未来气候预测中不确定性的范围，需要创新的新方法。在这里，我提出了一种新颖的策略，该策略将通过刺激重大火山喷发的记录来为气候敏感性提供独特的新测试和对气候敏感性的紧急限制。沃尔代面喷发对气候产生了巨大的影响，因为它们的硫酸盐气溶胶反映了阳光，反映了不断的阳光，反映了不断的驱动驱动的时间，使得驱动了1-5岁的时代。但是，我们阅读该记录的能力目前受到火山强迫的不确定性（爆发对进入辐射的影响 - 主要是平流层硫酸盐的函数）和全球气候反应。通过使用尖端新技术测量冰芯中的硫同位素，我将独特地约束平流层硫酸盐和喷发纬度和季节，从而改变了对过去火山强迫的知识。我将这与全球气候反应的新的和改进的重建相比，通过将新的，全球分布的古气候记录纳入模型数据同化产品来实现。通过检查对过去2000年的233次重大喷发中每一次的气候反应，我将对火山气候敏感性提供强大的观察性约束。我将使用这些来测试最先进的气候模型中的灵敏度和反馈。这些测试将在当前模型中对对气溶胶的广泛敏感性以及有关有争议的地球工程计划的辩论的了解。随着对火山和二氧化碳的模型响应的联系，这项工作最终将用于完善对CO2上升的敏感性范围，并改善未来气候的预测。