WATER RESILIENT CITIES:CLIMATE UNCERTAINTY & URBAN VULNERABILITY to HYDROHAZARDS

水力城市：气候不确定性

• 批准号: EP/N030419/1
• 负责人: Lindsay Beevers
• 金额: $ 133万
• 依托单位: Heriot-Watt University
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Fellowship
• 财政年份: 2016
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2016 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=EP%2FN030419%2F1
• 关键词: WATER; RESILIENT; CITIES; CLIMATE; UNCERTAINTY

Cities are the driver of regional, national and indeed global economies. The complex inter-relationship between urban areas and their hinterlands is a vital aspect of a city's economic success. Hinterlands supply resources such as water, food and energy; while being economically-tied to the urban area through trade. Creating resilient, sustainable, water-secure cities depends on our understanding of the potential future risks of changing hydro-hazards (floods and droughts) and our ability to increase our resilience to them. Worldwide, in 2014, hydro-hazards resulted in over $16Bn (floods) and $7.5Bn (droughts) in damages. While, in the UK over the past five years there have been significant challenges to water management posed by hydro hazards. Since 2000, flooding has caused over £5Bn worth of damage, of which £3Bn was caused by the 2007 floods, and over £1Bn from the 2013/14 winter storms, impacting households and businesses alike. Similarly direct costs (estimated at £70-165M) from the recent UK drought (2011-12) arose from impacts to urban water supplies, and industry. Projections of future climate recognise that there is an added uncertainty in temperature and precipitation trends which may exacerbate the frequency and severity of such hazards. To respond to the stated challenge of transforming our cities to be resilient, sustainable urban centres and in the context of 'adapting to and mitigating climate change', I will quantify uncertainty in future hydro-hazards and design engineering/policy interventions to increase urban resilience which informs future urban water security adaptation for cities and their hinterlands. My fellowship will:1. quantify future urban hydro-hazard uncertainty in a warming climate using novel techniques,2. design engineering and policy interventions to mitigate the risk arising from these uncertainties, and3. improve urban living through enhanced resilience to hydro-hazards.I will achieve this by capturing uncertainty in hydro-hazard events and cascading this through to hazard assessment, challenging the current deterministic paradigm. I will characterise the vulnerability profile of newly exposed populations or sectors, and develop a ground breaking systems approach to ameliorate risk in order to design transformative resilience strategies. The delivery of this vision is challenging yet possible through combining advances in uncertainty quantification from a variety of fields, with my research which has consistently sought to challenge the deterministic paradigm. Awarding this fellowship will create a unique opportunity to improve our understanding of the role of climate projections on the systematic risk to urban living and how such risks can be addressed.Output will include: 1. detailed understanding of the change to hydro hazards across the UK as a result of climate projections (and associated uncertainty), communicated in the context of climate variability,2. probabilistic frameworks to capture climate uncertainty into assessments of systematic risk posed by changing hydro hazards at the urban scale,3. analysis of the changing urban vulnerability, the uncertainty associated with this and exploration of the newly exposed population using new, and highly discretised vulnerability metrics,4. a systems approach to urban resilience to changing hydro hazards, and5. resilience strategies; e.g. transformative engineering interventions.

城市是区域，民族乃至全球经济的驱动力。城市地区与其hinderlands之间的复杂关系是城市经济成功的重要方面。腹地提供水，食物和能源等资源；同时通过贸易经济与城市地区息息相关。创造有弹性，可持续的水，供水城市取决于我们对改变水危（洪水和干旱）的潜在未来风险的理解，以及我们提高对它们的韧性的能力。在2014年，全球造成的危害造成了超过160亿美元（洪水）和75亿美元的损害赔偿。虽然在过去的五年中，在英国，水管理面临着水电危害的挑战。自2000年以来，洪水造成了价值超过50亿英镑的损失，其中30亿英镑是由2007楼造成的，超过2013/14年的冬季风暴，影响了家庭和企业。类似地，最近英国干旱（2011-12）的直接成本（估计为70-1.65亿英镑）也来自城市供水和工业的影响。未来气候认识的预测，温度和降水趋势存在增加的不确定性，这可能会加剧此类危害的频率和严重性。为了应对将我们的城市转变为具有韧性，可持续的城市中心的挑战，并且在“适应和减轻气候变化”的背景下，我将量化未来的氢化危机和设计工程/政策干预措施的不确定性，以提高城市弹性，以提高未来的城市水安全适应城市和其局域网。我的奖学金将：1。使用新技术2。设计工程和政策干预措施，以减轻这些不确定性和3的风险3。通过增强对水危的适应能力改善城市生活。我将通过捕获危险评估的不确定性并将其降级到危险评估中来实现这一目标，挑战当前的确定性范式。I将表征新近暴露的人口或群体的脆弱性概况，并通过策略进行策略来挑战，从而使这种策略的变形降低了，以使其挑战具有挑战性。将各个领域的不确定性量化的进步结合在一起，我的研究始终如一地挑战确定性范式。授予这项奖学金将创造一个独特的机会，以提高我们对气候预测对城市生活风险的作用以及如何解决这种风险的理解。输出将包括：1。详细了解由于气候项目（及其相关的不确定性），在气候可变性的背景下进行了通信，对整个英国的变化的详细理解，2。概率框架将气候不确定性捕捉到对城市规模上的水力危害造成的系统风险的评估中，3。分析不断变化的城市脆弱性，与此相关的不确定性以及使用新的且高度离散的脆弱性指标对新曝光人群的探索，4。一种用于城市弹性改变水力危害的系统方法，5。弹性策略；例如变革性工程干预措施。

项目成果

Partitioning model uncertainty in multi-model ensemble river flow projections

• DOI: 10.1007/s10584-023-03621-1
• 发表时间: 2023-11
• 期刊: Climatic Change
• 影响因子: 4.8
• 作者: G. Aitken;Lindsay Beevers;Simon Parry;Katie Facer-Childs

Multi-Level Monte Carlo Models for Flood Inundation Uncertainty Quantification

洪水淹没不确定性量化的多级蒙特卡罗模型

• DOI: 10.1029/2022wr032599
• 发表时间: 2022
• 期刊: Water Resources Research
• 影响因子: 5.4
• 作者: Aitken G

EGU 2019 - Interactive PICO presentation - Spatio-temporal representation of the change and uncertainty in compound hydro-hazard extremes across the UK

EGU 2019 - 交互式 PICO 演示 - 英国复合水灾极端事件的变化和不确定性的时空表示

• DOI: 10.13140/rg.2.2.18572.26249
• 发表时间: 2019
• 作者: Annie Visser-Quinn

Urban Systems: Mapping Interdependencies and Outcomes to Support Systems Thinking

• DOI: 10.1029/2019ef001389
• 发表时间: 2020-03
• 期刊: Earth's Future
• 作者: M. Bedinger;L. Beevers;Guy H. Walker;A. Visser-Quinn;K. McClymont

The influence of climate model uncertainty on fluvial flood hazard estimation

气候模型不确定性对河流洪水灾害估算的影响

• 发表时间: 2020
• 期刊: Natural Hazards
• 影响因子: 3.7
• 作者: Beever L