The creation of localized current and future weather for the built environment

为建筑环境创建本地化的当前和未来天气

• 批准号: EP/M021890/1
• 负责人: David Coley
• 金额: $ 78.32万
• 依托单位: University of Bath
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2015
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2015 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=EP%2FM021890%2F1
• 关键词: creation; localized; current; future; weather

It is well known that climate change will have a significant impact on UK building design and energy use. It is also known within the building science and architectural communities that the current weather files used for thermal modeling of buildings only represent average weather rather than heat waves or cold snaps. As was shown by the 14,000 deaths in Paris during the 2003 heat wave, this is a highly serious issue and there is the need to ensure future buildings are designed to deal with future weather, or extremes of current weather.In addition, the current weather files used by the construction industry and building scientists divide the UK into only 14 regions, with, for example, the whole of the South West peninsular (including up-land areas) being assigned the coastal Plymouth weather file. It is known that this can easily lead to a 200% error in the estimation of annual energy demand. The scale of this error is such that it renders many of the dynamic simulations carried out by engineers questionable. This is unfortunate when simulation is used within the framework of the building regulations, but it is fatal when trying to use simulation to estimate how resilient a pre-existing building is, or the danger its vulnerable occupants might be in. The aim of this project will be to see if a method can be devised that is capable of creating local weather from 2015 to 2080 covering the whole UK at a resolution of 5km, and to include within this files that represent various excursions from the mean: e.g. heat waves and cold snaps. An interdisciplinary approach is envisaged with the project separated into six work packages:WP1 We will use a method already published by the team together with the UKCP09 weather generator to produce current and future typical weather at a resolution of approximately 5km. WP2 The work in the previous work package will initially require the creation of thousands of years of weather per site. Within these initial years will reside a large number of weather events of interest to the building scientist or engineer. These files will be used in computer models of 1200 differing architectures and building uses to identify what are the key drivers of weather variable coincidence that defines the likelihood of building system failure or thermal issues for occupants. WP3 Having characterised which events best describe the stresses on a building, its occupants and systems in WP2. Event years (i.e. times series of weather data variables on a one hour time step that represent atypical hot, dry, cold and wet periods) will be created for the whole UK. WP4 Having generated the event years, and simulations from the 1200 buildings, the two will be recombined to produce the first map of UK resilience to a changing climate. Although others have looked at the regional resilience of the built environment using average weather years, the concern is not about the response of building and occupants to such average time series, but to more extreme events. WP5 Given the large number of files proposed, guidance will need to be given on which to use in practice, and how this might be expressed in the building regulations and other documentation. We plan to use case studies as the main guidance tool. This will add greatly to their intellectual validity within the target audience of practicing engineers. In total, we expect the guidance to be tested on >100 real building projects. WP6 Impact. All weather files produced by the project will be publicly available for a minimum of 10 years. A series of road shows will be undertaken at the end of the project. At these events the results of the project will be presented to a large number of users. The idea will be to introduce the whole UK built environment community to the idea of designing resilient buildings aided by the weather data produced by the project. A short film will also be produced for those that cannot attend and for an international audience.

众所周知，气候变化将对英国的建筑设计和能源使用产生重大影响。在建筑科学和建筑社区中也知道，当前用于建筑物热建模的天气文件仅代表平均天气，而不是热浪或冷扣。正如2003年热浪中巴黎死亡人数14,000人所表明的那样，这是一个非常严重的问题，有必要确保将来的建筑物旨在应对未来的天气或当前天气的极端。此外，建筑行业和建筑科学家使用的当前天气档案仅将英国划分为14个地区，例如，整个西部半岛的天气（包括向上地区）（包括上层）（包括上层）（包括上层）。众所周知，这很容易导致估计年能量需求的200％误差。此错误的规模使得它呈现出许多工程师可疑的动态模拟。当在建筑条例的框架内使用模拟时，这是不幸的，但是在试图使用模拟来估计预先存在建筑物的弹性时，这是致命的，或者其脆弱的居民可能存在危险。该项目的目的是，该项目的目的是查看能够从2015年到2080年的范围，并在整个范围内提出一定的范围。平均值：例如热浪和冷扣。设想一种跨学科方法，该项目分为六个工作包：WP1我们将使用团队已经发布的一种方法与UKCP09天气生成器一起以约5公里的分辨率生产当前和未来的典型天气。 WP2先前工作包中的工作最初将需要每个站点创造数千年的天气。在这几年中，建筑科学家或工程师将居住着大量感兴趣的天气事件。这些文件将用于1200个不同架构的计算机型号和建筑物用途，以确定什么是天气变量的关键驱动因素，从而定义了建筑系统故障或居住者热问题的可能性。 WP3表征了哪些事件最能描述建筑物的压力，其乘员和WP2中的系统。事件年度（即，在一个小时的时间步骤中，代表非典型热，干燥，寒冷和潮湿的时期的天气数据变量）将为整个英国创建。 WP4生成了活动年，以及1200座建筑物的模拟，将重新组合，以产生英国的第一张弹性，以应对气候变化。尽管其他人则使用平均天气来研究建筑环境的区域弹性，但关注的问题与建筑物和乘员对这种平均时间序列的反应，而是对更极端的事件的反应。 WP5鉴于提出的大量文件，需要在实践中使用指导，以及在建筑法规和其他文档中如何表达这一点。我们计划使用案例研究作为主要的指导工具。这将极大地增加他们在执业工程师目标受众中的智力有效性。总的来说，我们预计该指南将在> 100个真实的建筑项目上进行测试。 WP6冲击。该项目生产的所有天气档案将至少公开10年。该项目结束时将进行一系列的公路展览。在这些事件中，该项目的结果将显示给大量用户。这个想法将是向整个英国建造的环境社区介绍设计有弹性建筑物的想法，该建筑在该项目生产的天气数据的帮助下。也将为那些无法参加和国际观众的人制作一部短片。

项目成果

A review of current and future weather data for building simulation

• DOI: 10.1177/0143624417705937
• 发表时间: 2017-04
• 期刊: Building Services Engineering Research & Technology
• 影响因子: 1.7
• 作者: M. Herrera;S. Natarajan;D. Coley;T. Kershaw;A. Ramallo-González;M. Eames;D. Fosas;M. Wood

The reliability of inverse modelling for the wide scale characterization of the thermal properties of buildings

建筑物热性能大范围表征反演模型的可靠性

• DOI: 10.1080/19401493.2016.1273390
• 发表时间: 2017
• 期刊: Journal of Building Performance Simulation
• 影响因子: 2.5
• 作者: Ramallo-González A

Mitigation versus adaptation: Does insulating dwellings increase overheating risk?

• DOI: 10.1016/j.buildenv.2018.07.033
• 发表时间: 2018-10-01
• 期刊: BUILDING AND ENVIRONMENT
• 影响因子: 7.4
• 作者: Fosas, Daniel;Coley, David A.;Ramaho-Gonzalez, Alfonso
• 通讯作者: Ramaho-Gonzalez, Alfonso

An analytical heat wave definition based on the impact on buildings and occupants

基于对建筑物和居住者影响的分析热浪定义

• DOI: 10.1016/j.enbuild.2020.109923
• 发表时间: 2020
• 期刊: Energy and Buildings
• 影响因子: 6.7
• 作者: Ramallo-González A

Estimating and mapping urban heat islands of the UK by interpolation from the UK Met Office observing network

• DOI: 10.1177/0143624419897254
• 发表时间: 2020-01-13
• 期刊: BUILDING SERVICES ENGINEERING RESEARCH & TECHNOLOGY
• 影响因子: 1.7
• 作者: Chowienczyk, K.;McCarthy, M. P.;Coley, D.
• 通讯作者: Coley, D.