DEMOGRAPHICS, HOUSING, AND WELFARE OF THE ELDERLY

老年人的人口统计、住房和福利

• 批准号: 3122146
• 负责人: DANIEL MCFADDEN
• 金额: $ 10.22万
• 依托单位: NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 1992
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 1992-08-10 至 1995-07-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/3122146
• 关键词: data collection; family structure /dynamics; housing; human old age (65+); human population study; income; longitudinal human study; model design /development; social model; social service

The goal of the Project on Demographics, Housing, and the Welfare of the Elderly is to determine the effects of a declining birth rate and aging population on the housing market, and through the characteristics of this market on the welfare of successive cohorts of elderly, via changing user cost of housing, changing wealth generated by real capital gains, and changing savings behavior in response to perceptions (and misperceptions) of housing market prospects. The specific aims of the project are to (1) collect demographic and housing market data over a long time period, (2) build a demographic model that can be used to drive a housing demand model several generations into the future, (3) estimate a structural model of housing demand and supply that takes demography into account, (4) and use this model to analyze the welfare impacts on elderly cohorts. The results should be useful in identifying future policy issues, such as poverty rates among the elderly, and in analyzing the impacts of policies affecting housing wealth and savings, such as changes in capital gain taxes or in the tax treatment of savings.

人口统计、住房和福利项目的目标 老年人将确定出生率下降和老龄化的影响 住房市场的人口，并通过这个特点 通过改变用户来影响连续老年人群的福利市场 住房成本、实际资本收益产生的财富变化，以及 根据看法（和误解）改变储蓄行为 的住房市场前景。 该项目的具体目标是（1） 收集长期人口和住房市场数据，(2) 建立可用于推动住房需求的人口模型 对未来几代人进行建模，（3）估计结构 考虑人口因素的住房需求和供应模型， (4)并利用该模型分析对老年人群的福利影响。 结果应有助于确定未来的政策问题，例如 老年人的贫困率以及分析政策的影响 影响住房财富和储蓄，例如资本收益的变化 税或储蓄的税收处理。