Modelling to inform interventions during Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza outbreaks in Great Britain

英国高致病性禽流感爆发期间的建模为干预措施提供信息

• 批准号: BB/X016137/1
• 负责人: Robin Thompson
• 金额: $ 89.75万
• 依托单位: University of Oxford
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2024
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2024 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=BB%2FX016137%2F1
• 关键词: Modelling; inform; interventions; during; Highly

Avian influenza is a highly contagious disease, affecting both wild birds and domestic poultry. The poultry industry suffers substantial economic losses due to this disease, both in Great Britain (GB) and around the world. The 2021-22 outbreak in GB has been the largest in the country's history, and seasonal outbreaks are expected to continue to occur.Mathematical models are increasingly used during outbreaks of a range of diseases to inform future scenarios and to guide control measures. This project involves developing a national-scale mathematical model of avian influenza transmission around GB, in collaboration with the UK Government's Animal and Plant Health Agency (APHA). It builds on our previous work with APHA during the 2021-22 outbreak, in which we spent six weeks developing a preliminary transmission model to project future spread of the virus and to guide control interventions. In the current project, we will build on our previous rapid-response research, taking advantage of the longer timescale of this project to develop a flexible modelling framework with a high level of rigour. This includes fitting the parameters of the transmission model to a range of data sources, and accounting for both transmission between poultry premises within GB and importations of infection from elsewhere. By working closely with APHA, we will ensure that the model can be run on APHA computer systems, permitting its use by policy advisors to guide interventions in future outbreaks.Once we have developed the transmission model, we will use it to explore the effectiveness of a range of different control interventions that could be applied during future outbreaks in GB. A benefit of our collaboration with APHA is that we are in a position to use the model to test practical strategies that could be deployed effectively. We will also develop a user-friendly software tool and Graphical User Interface based on the model, allowing the user to change model parameters themselves and test different control interventions without requiring specialist knowledge about the computing code. To encourage others to use the software, we will run an outbreak simulation exercise in which we will provide simulated outbreak data to policy advisors, who will then use the tool to determine optimal interventions. Similar exercises have been conducted before for a range of other livestock diseases. This exercise will be conducted at the start of the third year of this project, enabling any feedback to be incorporated into the model and software tool. We will also run a two-day workshop for other researchers in which we describe the modelling framework and software tool, and demonstrate their use.In summary, this project will involve the development of a national epidemiological modelling resource that can be used to plan control measures during future avian influenza outbreaks in GB. It complements existing research on avian influenza by providing a tool that will be used by policy advisors for the foreseeable future to determine optimal interventions during outbreaks.

禽流感是一种高度传染性疾病，影响野生鸟类和家禽。在英国 (GB) 和世界各地，家禽业都因这种疾病遭受了巨大的经济损失。英国 2021-22 年爆发的疫情是该国历史上最大规模的疫情，预计季节性疫情将继续发生。在一系列疾病爆发期间，越来越多地使用数学模型来为未来的情况提供信息并指导控制措施。该项目涉及与英国政府动植物卫生局 (APHA) 合作，开发英国各地禽流感传播的全国规模数学模型。它建立在我们之前在 2021-22 年疫情期间与 APHA 合作的基础上，当时我们花了六周的时间开发了一个初步传播模型，以预测病毒的未来传播并指导控制干预措施。在当前的项目中，我们将在之前的快速响应研究的基础上，利用该项目较长的时间尺度，开发一个灵活且高度严谨的建模框架。这包括将传播模型的参数拟合到一系列数据源，并考虑英国境内家禽养殖场之间的传播和从其他地方输入的感染。通过与 APHA 密切合作，我们将确保该模型可以在 APHA 计算机系统上运行，从而允许政策顾问使用它来指导未来疫情爆发的干预措施。一旦我们开发出传播模型，我们将用它来探索传播模型的有效性。一系列不同的控制干预措施可以在英国未来的疫情爆发时应用。我们与 APHA 合作的一个好处是，我们能够使用该模型来测试可以有效部署的实际策略。我们还将基于该模型开发用户友好的软件工具和图形用户界面，允许用户自行更改模型参数并测试不同的控制干预措施，而无需有关计算代码的专业知识。为了鼓励其他人使用该软件，我们将进行一次疫情模拟练习，其中我们将向政策顾问提供模拟疫情数据，然后政策顾问将使用该工具来确定最佳干预措施。此前针对一系列其他牲畜疾病也进行过类似的研究。这项练习将在该项目的第三年开始时进行，以便将任何反馈纳入模型和软件工具中。我们还将为其他研究人员举办为期两天的研讨会，在其中我们描述建模框架和软件工具，并演示它们的用途。总之，该项目将涉及开发可用于计划控制的国家流行病学建模资源英国未来禽流感爆发期间采取的措施。它提供了一种工具，供政策顾问在可预见的未来使用，以确定疫情爆发期间的最佳干预措施，从而补充了现有的禽流感研究。