FORECASTING ACTIVE LIFE EXPECTANCY AND POPULATION

预测活跃预期寿命和人口

基本信息

批准号：
3118114
负责人：
ANDREI ROGERS
金额：
$ 5.98万
依托单位：
UNIVERSITY OF COLORADO
依托单位国家：
美国
项目类别：
财政年份：
1988
资助国家：
美国
起止时间：
1988-07-01 至 1990-06-30
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/3118114
关键词：
human morbidity human population dynamics human population study longevity statistics /biometry vital statistics

项目摘要

This proposal describe a study that would extend multistate demographic methods to a new problem area: the analysis and forecasting of active life expectancy and the future active/inactive populations. By active life expectancy is meant the expected duration of well-being---a status that signifies an individual's independence in the activities of daily living. Current unistate methods for estimating these expectancies are deficient in that they ignore the possibility of a return from dependent to independent status. This is a direct consequence of their reliance on conventional life table models---models that only permit exists from the population and no returns. Multistate life tables, on the other hand, accommodate both decrements and increments and focus simultaneously on several interacting subpopulations. Hence they are uniquely suited for analyses of the evolution of active life processes---processes in which about a quarter of those persons becoming dependent return to independent status. This project seeks to apply multistate models to the study of active life expectancy. It will develop improved life table methods for describing and accounting for observed patterns of active life expectancy, using statistical models that link transition probabilities to explanatory variables. And it will develop improved projection methods for forecasting active life expectancy and the future active/inactive aged populations.

该提案描述了一项将扩展多层的研究新问题领域的人口统计学方法：分析和预测积极的预期寿命和未来主动/非活动人群。积极的预期寿命意味着福祉的预期持续时间 - 个人在日常生活中的独立性。当前估计这些期望的联合方法是他们忽略了从中返回的可能性取决于独立状态。这是直接结果他们依靠传统寿命表模型---模型仅允许人口中存在，没有回报。多层另一方面，寿命表可以容纳减少和增加并同时专注于几个交互亚群。因此，它们非常适合分析积极生命过程的演变---大约这些人的四分之一变得依赖独立状态。该项目旨在将多层模型应用于研究积极的预期寿命。它将发展得改善的寿命表描述和考虑观察到的模式的方法使用统计模型将过渡连接的统计模型积极预期寿命解释变量的概率。它将发展改进的预测活跃生活的投影方法预期和未来的活跃/不活跃的年龄人口。