LONGITUDINAL PREDICITON OF MARITAL DISSOLUTION

婚姻破裂的纵向预测

• 批准号: 3386899
• 负责人: JOHN M GOTTMAN
• 金额: $ 23.86万
• 依托单位: UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 1992
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 1992-09-30 至 1997-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/3386899
• 关键词: behavior prediction; computer data analysis; conflict; divorce /separation; dyadic interaction; human; interpersonal relations; longitudinal human study; marriage /marital status; occupations; questionnaires; videotape /videodisc

This is a resubmission of a proposal to test a model of marital dissolution. To accomplish this aim, a series of five longitudinal followups of four cohorts of married couples is proposed. The first cohort of 79 couples were first studied in 1983; 56 couples were first studied in 1986; 63 were first studied in 1989; and, a group of 120 newlyweds are currently being studied. At Time-1, in all cohorts videotapes of marital conflict, physiological data, and self-report data using questionnaires were obtained. Procedures were standardized across cohorts. There have only been a handful of studies that have attempted the prediction of marital dissolution and none have employed observational or physiological measures. Previous attempts at prediction have produced weak and inconsistent results. Based on a 4-year longitudinal study, data are presented that suggest that the prediction of dissolution is promising. Replication and extension of these results is proposed in a cohort- sequential design. Retention of subject percentages have been about 92%. Time-1 videotapes were coded with 4 observational systems for the 1983 cohort, and the subsequent coding of all the videotapes for all cohorts in proposed. A Guttman-like scale cascade model of marital dissolution is proposed that solves some of the problems associated with short-term longitudinal studies of a relatively rare dichotomous criterion (separation or divorce). A set of theoretically motivated observational and self- report process variables are proposed as predictors of dissolution. The self-report variables are shown to correlate with both observational measures and with the outcome variables of the cascade model. The observational and self-report variables also form a Guttman-like scale. The process variables are (1). The Primary of Negativity and Physiological Linkage; and, (20. Pattern X: Contempt, Defensiveness, Withdrawal, and Physiological Arousal. Questionnaire process variables are: (1) Loneliness; (2) Parallel Lives; (3) Severity of Problems; (4) Flooded by Partner's negative affect; (5) Works problems out alone, not with spouse.

这是测试婚姻模型的提案的重新提交 解散。 为了实现这一目标，一系列五个纵向 提出了四个已婚夫妇的随访。 第一个队列 在1983年首次研究了79对夫妇中；首先研究了56对夫妇 1986; 1989年首次研究了63个；而且，一组120个新婚夫妇是 目前正在研究。 在Time-1，在所有婚姻录像带中 使用问卷调查的冲突，生理数据和自我报告数据 获得了。 程序跨人群进行标准化。 那里有 只有少数研究试图预测 婚姻解散，没有人使用观察性或生理 措施。 以前对预测的尝试导致了薄弱和 结果不一致。 基于一项为期4年的纵向研究，数据是 提出的表明，溶解的预测是有希望的。 这些结果的复制和扩展是在队列中提出的 顺序设计。 保留受试者百分比约为92％。 Time-1录像带已使用1983年的4个观察系统编码 队列，以及随后的所有录像带的所有录像带 建议的。 类似Guttman的比例尺级别的婚姻解散模型是 提议解决与短期有关的一些问题 相对罕见的二分法标准的纵向研究（分离 或离婚）。 一组理论上动机的观察和自我 提出报告过程变量作为溶解的预测指标。 这 自我报告变量显示与两个观测 衡量级联模型的结果变量。 这 观察和自我报告变量也形成了类似Guttman的量表。 过程变量为（1）。 消极和生理的主要 连锁;和，（20。模式x：蔑视，防御性，退出和 生理唤醒。 问卷过程变量是：（1） 孤独； （2）平行生命； （3）问题的严重程度； （4）被洪水淹没 伴侣的负面影响； （5）独自解决问题，而不是与配偶在一起。