Dynamics of Tropical Cyclones

热带气旋的动力学

基本信息

批准号：
55211730
负责人：
Professor Dr. Roger K. Smith, Ph.D.
金额：
--
依托单位：
Meteorologisches Institut
依托单位国家：
德国
项目类别：
Research Grants
财政年份：
2007
资助国家：
德国
起止时间：
2006-12-31 至 2016-12-31
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://gepris.dfg.de/gepris/projekt/55211730?language=en
关键词：
Dynamics Tropical Cyclones

项目摘要

This proposal aims to develop a deeper understanding of certain fundamental dynamical aspects of tropical cyclones, with special emphasis on the factors that determine their intensity and size. The approach will be based on the analysis of (mostly idealized) simulations using several numerical models, some relatively simple and others more sophisticated. The study will include an analysis of prominent storms with extreme sizes, such as Tropical Cyclone Tracy, an intense midget storm that devastated the Australian city of Darwin in 1974, and Hurricane Sandy, a less intense storm, but one with an enormous radius of strong winds that reeked havoc with a large area of the northeastern seaboard United States in 2012. At present, there is little understanding of the factors that determine the size of individual storms, but work already initiated during the earlier stage of the project points to a way forward in attacking this problem. A part of the study will investigate the possibility of a hypothetical steady-state storm; an approach that we believe may hold the key to answering several questions about tropical-cyclone size in general. An important question to be addressed is whether there is a mechanism for limiting the size of storms so that a steady state can be achieved in principle. The knowledge gained from the analyses can be expected to flow on to improved forecasts and it has also the potential to lead to an improved method for assessing the potential intensity of storms.

该建议旨在对热带气旋的某些基本动力学方面有更深入的了解，并特别强调决定其强度和大小的因素。该方法将基于使用几个数值模型对（主要是理想化的）仿真的分析，有些模型相对简单，而另一些则更复杂。该研究将包括对具有极大尺寸的突出暴风雨的分析，例如热带气旋Tracy，这是一场激烈的侏儒风暴，破坏了1974年的澳大利亚城市达尔文和飓风桑迪，飓风桑迪，一场较小的暴风雨，但一场巨大的强风巨大的强风却遭受了巨大的巨大袭击，遭受了巨大的危险，因为它在2012年的东北地区都没有大量的危害。在项目的早期阶段已经开始的工作指出了攻击此问题的前进方向。该研究的一部分将调查假设稳态风暴的可能性。我们认为，一种方法可能是回答有关热带周期大小的几个问题的关键。要解决的一个重要问题是是否存在限制风暴大小的机制，以便在原则上可以实现稳定状态。从分析中获得的知识可以预计会得到改善的预测，并且它也有可能导致改进的方法评估暴风雨的潜在强度。