Development of short-period strong motion prediction method considering medium heterogeneity and application for great subduction zone earthquakes

考虑介质非均质性的短周期强震预测方法及其在俯冲带大地震中的应用

基本信息

批准号：
17560527
负责人：
SATOH Toshimi
金额：
$ 1.93万
依托单位：
Research Institute of Shimizu Construction Co.
依托单位国家：
日本
项目类别：
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
财政年份：
2005
资助国家：
日本
起止时间：
2005 至 2007
项目状态：
已结题

项目摘要

Long-period strong motions have been in the spotlight since the 2003 Tokachi-oki earthquake. During great subduction-zone earthquakes, however, short-period strong motions would be also big and so short-period structures would be damaged. Therefore we develop an advanced statistical Green's function method to predict short-period strong motions more accurately. For source effects, we develop a method to invert a characterized source model by adding restrictions based on so-called strong motion prediction recipe and apply the method to the 2005 west off Fukuoka prefecture earth-quake and the 2005 Miyagiken-oki earthquake. We also consider the heterogeneity in each asperity of the source model and predict broadband strong motions for hypothesized Nankai earthquake. For path effects, we construct an envelope model based on a scattering theory to introduce the effects of medium heterogeneity into short-period strong motions.Then we apply the developed method to strong motion prediction for hypothesized Miyagiken-oki earthquake and Nankai earthquake. In addition we predict building damage ratio of short-period structures such as ordinary wooden houses and low-rise rein-forced-concrete buildings and environmental burden using predicted strong motions for the Nankai earthquake.Strong motions mentioned above are horizontal components for S-wave. In this study we extend the statistical Green's function method in order to reasonably predict strong motions of both horizontal and vertical components for both P and S waves. We also develop empirical attenuation relations of both horizontal and vertical components for both P and S waves to verify the Green's functions or predicted strong motions.

自2003年Tokachi-Oki地震以来，长期的强大动作一直引起人们的关注。然而，在巨大的俯冲区域地震中，短期的强烈动作也很大，因此短期结构将受到损害。因此，我们开发了一种先进的统计绿色功能方法，以更准确地预测短期强项。对于源效应，我们开发了一种方法，通过添加基于所谓的强运动预测配方的限制来颠倒特征的源模型，并将该方法应用于2005年的福库卡（Fukuoka）郊外地球 - Quake和2005 Miyagikiken-Oki地震。我们还考虑了源模型的每个覆盖性中的异质性，并预测了假设的南卡地震的宽带强烈动作。对于路径效应，我们构建了一个基于散射理论的包络模型，以将培养基异质性的影响引入短期强烈动作。此外，我们预测短期结构（例如普通木制房屋和低层固定混凝土建筑物）和环境负担的建筑物损害比，使用对南加地震的预测运动。在这项研究中，我们扩展了统计绿色的功能方法，以便在P和S波中合理预测水平和垂直成分的强烈动作。我们还发展了P和S波的水平和垂直成分的经验衰减关系，以验证绿色的功能或预测的强烈动作。