Making Model Building and Its Application with Integrating Heterogeneous Decision Makers

集成异质决策者模型构建及其应用

基本信息

批准号：
16330083
负责人：
NAKAJIMA Nozomi
金额：
$ 8.06万
依托单位：
Osaka University
依托单位国家：
日本
项目类别：
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)
财政年份：
2004
资助国家：
日本
起止时间：
2004 至 2006
项目状态：
已结题

项目摘要

We have developed several models in the Bayesian framework to cope with the various types of customer heterogeneity from a new perspective. The recent progress in the computational methods of Bayesian statistics has provided powerful model building approaches, together with the rapid improvement of technological infrastructures, such as the Internet and mobile phones, scanner data and home delivery systems as well as computerized customer management systems.A brand choice model with heterogeneous price-threshold parameters was proposed to investigate the relationships between the aspects of consumer price sensitivity and price thresholds using hierarchical Bayes modeling with the MCMC method. The empirical application revealed that the reference effect and loss aversion were more marked with the introduction of price thresholds into the response models. The similar approach was taken in constructing the advertising exposure model to investigate the effects of advertising stocks on cons … More umers' buying behavior processes.Another consumer behavior model that permits the estimation of customer lifetime value (CLV) from standard RFM data in "non-contractual" setting was proposed in the hierarchical Bayes framework. The model also relates customer characteristics to dropout, frequency, and spending behavior, which, in turn, is linked to CLV to provide useful insight into acquisition. Using frequent shopper program data, the model was shown to perform better than the benchmark Pareto/NBD-based model at both aggregate and disaggregate levels on calibration and holdout samples. The model enables to describe the interdependence of these three behavioral processes, and our data exhibited a highly negative correlation between purchase frequency and the dropout process, violating the assumption of the Pareto/NBD model.We also contributed to popularization of the Bayesian approach to marketing problems by providing monographs and organizing two international conferences held in Japan as well as presenting several papers there. Less

我们在贝叶斯框架下开发了多种模型，以从新的角度应对各种类型的客户异质性。贝叶斯统计计算方法的最新进展，以及技术基础设施的快速完善，提供了强大的模型构建方法。例如互联网和移动电话、扫描仪数据和送货上门系统以及计算机化客户管理系统。提出了一种具有异构价格阈值参数的品牌选择模型，以使用分层贝叶斯研究消费者价格敏感度和价格阈值方面之间的关系建模与MCMC方法的实证应用表明，在响应模型中引入价格阈值，参考效应和损失厌恶更加明显，在构建广告曝光模型来研究广告库存对缺点的影响时也采用了类似的方法。更多用户的购买行为过程。在分层贝叶斯框架中提出了另一种消费者行为模型，该模型允许根据“非合同”设置中的标准 RFM 数据估计客户终生价值 (CLV)。该模型还将客户特征与退出相关联。频率，以及行为，进而与 CLV 相关联，以提供对购买行为的有用洞察。使用频繁的购物者计划数据，该模型在校准和分类支出水平上均表现优于基于 Pareto/NBD 的基准模型。该模型能够描述这三种行为过程的相互依赖性，并且我们的数据显示购买频率和退出过程之间存在高度负相关，这违反了 Pareto/NBD 模型的假设。我们还为贝叶斯模型的流行做出了贡献。方法通过提供专着和组织在日本举行的两次国际会议以及在那里发表几篇论文来解决营销问题。

项目成果

期刊论文数量（43）

专著数量（0）

科研奖励数量（0）

会议论文数量（0）

专利数量（0）

テレビ番組CMの割付に対する数理的アプローチ

电视节目广告分配的数学方法

DOI：
发表时间：
2005
期刊：
オペレーションズ・リサーチ 50・3
影响因子：
0
作者：
大西浩志;石田健仁;青山浩之;猿渡康文;猪飼美羽
通讯作者：
猪飼美羽

Price Customization based on Price Thresholds Estimated from Scanner Panel Data

根据扫描仪面板数据估算的价格阈值进行价格定制

DOI：
发表时间：
2005
期刊：
Proceedings of "International Workshop on Customer Relationship", New York University
影响因子：
0
作者：
TERUI;Nobuhiko;Wirawan Dahana
通讯作者：
Wirawan Dahana

Proceedings of Tsukuba-Tohoku Joint International Workshop on "New Directions of Research in Marketing"

筑波-东北联合国际研讨会“营销研究新方向”论文集

DOI：
发表时间：
2006
期刊：
Tsukuba U. Graduate School of Business Science and Tohoku U. Graduate School of Economics and Management
影响因子：
0
作者：
TERUI;N.;C.Nishio;T.Sato eds.
通讯作者：
T.Sato eds.

Interaction Between Manufacturer, Retailer, and Consumer : Inference with Scanner Data

制造商、零售商和消费者之间的互动：利用扫描仪数据进行推理

DOI：
发表时间：
2006
期刊：
Proceedings of Tsukuba-Tohoku Joint International Workshop on New Directions of Research in Marketing
影响因子：
0
作者：
KONDO;Fumiyo N.;Nakahara;Mariko;Haghirian;Parrisa;Takuya Satomura
通讯作者：
Takuya Satomura

Direct Mail Promotion Effects on the Responses of Beauty Salon Customers : Mobile DM Coupons vs. Postcards

直邮促销对美容院顾客反应的影响：手机 DM 优惠券与明信片

DOI：
发表时间：
2005
期刊：
The Proceedings in the 5th Annual Hawaii International Conference on Business
影响因子：
0
作者：
UWADAIRA;Yasuhiro;Kondo;Fumiyo N.
通讯作者：
Fumiyo N.