Modelling the spread of infections in a first-world child care facility: coding, analysis and policy implications

对第一世界儿童保育机构中的感染传播进行建模：编码、分析和政策影响

• 批准号: 538719-2019
• 负责人: Cojocaru, MonicaGabriela
• 金额: $ 2.19万
• 依托单位: University of Guelph
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Collaborative Research and Development Grants
• 财政年份: 2020
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2020-01-01 至 2021-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=699548
• 关键词: Modelling; spread; infections; first; world

Sanofi Pasteur in Canada, the vaccines division of Sanofi, is one of the world's leading healthcare companies, and the country's largest vaccine company with a strong commitment to public health. They provide important vaccines to Canadians for the prevention and treatment of infectious diseases, common illnesses and cancers. Canada Sanofi Pasteur is interested in a mathematical model of a day care center in a 1st world country (such as Canada), in order to use it as scenario testing for infection prevention behaviour and prophylactic treatments. They are specifically interested in a model where individuals in the population are kids, staff and parents, and where their interactions are modeled explicitly: person-to-person and person-to-environment, during typical outbreak episodes roughly of 4-5 months duration. They want to further use the model's output for socio-economic impact analyses arising from lowering infectiousness in day care centers. In response to the company's interest, we propose the development of a small-population agent-based model of a day care facility for the purpose of testing and informing prevention policies against viral infections (enteric, influenza, etc.) that can be implemented in a child care setting. The research is not only useful in applications to day care environments; it represents a novel approach in basic mathematical modelling of infection transmission in small, semi-closed populations. This type of mathematical model differs greatly from similar compartmental, game theoretic or agent-based epidemiological models, since it refers to a very small population, with different than average contact patterns, and with the possibility of being evolved on a time scale resolution of minutes, versus hours or days at a time.

加拿大赛诺菲巴斯德公司是赛诺菲公司的疫苗部门，是世界领先的医疗保健公司之一， 以及该国最大的疫苗公司，对公共卫生做出了坚定的承诺。他们提供重要的 向加拿大人提供用于预防和治疗传染病、常见疾病和癌症的疫苗。 加拿大赛诺菲巴斯德公司对第一世界国家日托中心的数学模型感兴趣（例如 如加拿大），以便将其用作感染预防行为和预防性治疗的场景测试。 他们对人口中的个体是孩子、员工和父母的模型特别感兴趣，并且 他们的互动被明确地建模：人与人、人与环境，在典型的 爆发发作持续时间大约为4-5个月。他们希望进一步使用模型的输出 降低日托中心传染性所产生的社会经济影响分析。 为了响应公司的利益，我们建议开发基于小群体代理的模型 日托机构，用于测试病毒感染（肠道、 流感等），可以在儿童保育环境中实施。该研究不仅在应用上有用 日托环境；它代表了感染基本数学建模的一种新方法 在小规模、半封闭的人群中传播。此类数学模型与同类数学模型有很大不同 区室、博弈论或基于主体的流行病学模型，因为它指的是非常小的人群，具有不同的特征 平均接触模式，并且有可能在分钟的时间尺度分辨率上进化，而不是 一次几个小时或几天。