Modelling the spread of infections in a first-world child care facility: coding, analysis and policy implications

对第一世界儿童保育机构中的感染传播进行建模：编码、分析和政策影响

• 批准号: 538719-2019
• 负责人: Cojocaru, Monica
• 金额: $ 2.19万
• 依托单位: University of Guelph
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Collaborative Research and Development Grants
• 财政年份: 2019
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2019-01-01 至 2020-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=683536
• 关键词: Modelling; spread; infections; first; world

Sanofi Pasteur in Canada, the vaccines division of Sanofi, is one of the world's leading healthcare companies,and the country's largest vaccine company with a strong commitment to public health. They provide importantvaccines to Canadians for the prevention and treatment of infectious diseases, common illnesses and cancers.Canada Sanofi Pasteur is interested in a mathematical model of a day care center in a 1st world country (suchas Canada), in order to use it as scenario testing for infection prevention behaviour and prophylactic treatments.They are specifically interested in a model where individuals in the population are kids, staff and parents, andwhere their interactions are modeled explicitly: person-to-person and person-to-environment, during typicaloutbreak episodes roughly of 4-5 months duration. They want to further use the model's output forsocio-economic impact analyses arising from lowering infectiousness in day care centers.In response to the company's interest, we propose the development of a small-population agent-based model ofa day care facility for the purpose of testing and informing prevention policies against viral infections (enteric,influenza, etc.) that can be implemented in a child care setting. The research is not only useful in applications today care environments; it represents a novel approach in basic mathematical modelling of infectiontransmission in small, semi-closed populations. This type of mathematical model differs greatly from similarcompartmental, game theoretic or agent-based epidemiological models, since it refers to a very small population, with different thanaverage contact patterns, and with the possibility of being evolved on a time scale resolution of minutes, versushours or days at a time.

加拿大赛诺菲巴斯德公司是赛诺菲公司的疫苗部门，是世界领先的医疗保健公司之一，也是加拿大最大的疫苗公司，对公共卫生做出了坚定的承诺。他们为加拿大人提供重要的疫苗，用于预防和治疗传染病、常见疾病和癌症。加拿大赛诺菲巴斯德对第一世界国家（例如加拿大）的日托中心的数学模型感兴趣，以便将其用作场景测试感染预防行为和预防性治疗。他们对一个模型特别感兴趣，其中人口中的个体是孩子、工作人员和父母，并且他们的互动被明确建模：人与人、人与环境，在典型的疫情爆发持续时间大约为 4-5 个月。他们希望进一步利用该模型的输出来进行因降低日托中心传染性而产生的社会经济影响分析。为了响应公司的利益，我们建议开发一种基于小群体主体的日托设施模型，目的是测试并告知可在儿童保育环境中实施的病毒感染（肠道、流感等）预防政策。该研究不仅在当今的护理环境中有用，而且在当今的护理环境中也很有用。它代表了一种在小型半封闭人群中进行感染传播基本数学建模的新方法。这种类型的数学模型与类似的区室、博弈论或基于主体的流行病学模型有很大不同，因为它涉及非常小的人口，具有与平均接触模式不同的特征，并且有可能在分钟（与小时）的时间尺度分辨率上演化或一次几天。