Strong motion and damage prediction for huge subduction-zone earthquakes based on a high precision prediction technique

基于高精度预测技术的俯冲带大地震强震及震害预测

基本信息

批准号：
14350304
负责人：
KAWASE Hiroshi
金额：
$ 10.88万
依托单位：
KYUSHU UNIVERSITY
依托单位国家：
日本
项目类别：
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)
财政年份：
2002
资助国家：
日本
起止时间：
2002 至 2004
项目状态：
已结题

项目摘要

In this research, in order to develop a quantitative damage prediction technique for a great subduction-zone earthquake and to verify its validity, the following three investigations were performed :1)Analysis of a source process and the development of the strong motion prediction technique,2)Extraction of site characteristics and the construction of underground structures, and3)Model creation for quantitative damage prediction.For task no.1, the strong motion generation areas were determined for seven interplate earthquakes in Off-Tokachi and Off-Kushiro regions. Then the empirical Green's function method was used to evaluate strong motions during the next Tonankai earthquake and the validity of the method was discussed. For statistical approach, the spectrum separation technique and the time-variation characteristic modeling technique are applied to strong motion data obtained by national networks such as K-NET for a broadband period range up to 10 seconds. We used them for a large s … More ubduction-zone earthquake.For task no.2 by using collected information on geographical feature classification for Chiba City three-dimensional surface soil structure model was built, and the validity of the model was shown. As for the fundamental characteristics of strong motions in Nobi Plain, various analyses were performed on observed strong motion records. For more precise determination of an underground structure, an improved receiver function method was proposed.For task no.3 the technique how to construct a structure model based on its response characteristics obtained from microtremor or aftershock records was proposed, and its verification was carried out by comparing it with past experience. Finally strong motion and damage prediction was performed for the Nankai earthquake by using prediction technique for strong motions and for structural damage. As a result, although heavy damage will be generated by strong motions reaching seismic intensity of 7 in the source region, the predicted damage in the population concentrated areas does not seem so large as we had been afraid of. Less

在这项研究中，为了为大俯冲区域地震开发定量损伤预测技术并验证其有效性，进行了以下三项研究，进行了以下三项研究：1）分析源过程以及强大运动预测技术的开发，2）挖掘现场特征的提取，并构建了基础结构的造成七个模型的构建，并确定了七个模型的构建。远处和库希罗地区。然后，使用经验绿色的功能方法来评估下一次Tonankai地震期间的强大动作，并讨论了该方法的有效性。对于统计方法，频谱分离技术和时间变化特征建模技术应用于由国家网络（例如K-NET）在宽带周期内获得的强大运动数据，范围为10秒。我们将它们用于大型……更多的Ubduction-Zone地震。对于第2任务，使用了有关Chiba City的地理特征分类的收集信息，建立了三维表面土壤结构模型，并显示了该模型的有效性。至于NOBI平原上强动作的基本特征，对观察到的强运动记录进行了各种分析。为了更精确地确定基础结构，提出了改进的接收器函数方法。对于第3任务，提出了如何根据从微晶状体或余震记录获得的响应特征来构建结构模型的技术，并通过将其比较它与过去的经验进行了验证。最终，通过使用预测技术来实现强烈的运动和结构损伤，对南海地震进行了强烈的运动和损害预测。结果，尽管在源区域中达到7的地震强度的强烈动作将造成沉重的损害，但人口集中区域的预测损害似乎并不像我们害怕的那样大。