Predicting the effects of climate change on alpine rock slopes: Evaluation of paraglacial and periglacial drivers of rockfall in the European Alps

预测气候变化对高山岩石斜坡的影响：评估欧洲阿尔卑斯山落石的冰旁和冰缘驱动因素

基本信息

批准号：
316624774
负责人：
Dr. Daniel Dräbing
金额：
--
依托单位：
Departement Fysische Geografie
依托单位国家：
德国
项目类别：
Research Grants
财政年份：
2016
资助国家：
德国
起止时间：
2015-12-31 至 2019-12-31
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://gepris.dfg.de/gepris/projekt/316624774?language=en
关键词：
Predicting effects climate change alpine

项目摘要

Rockfall from alpine rockwalls represents a hazard to human life and infrastructure but also a natural process of rock slope evolution. Two contrasting hypotheses currently exist which aim to explain rock slope evolution: (1) a paraglacial adjustment of the rockwalls with increasing frequency due to deglaciation and a subsequent asymptotically decline of adaption and (2) a frost-weathering dominant adaption with steady-state rates. Climate change will affect alpine systems by an increase of temperatures and a decrease of frost weathering activity and glaciated area. Hypothesis (1) suggests an increase of rockfall frequency due to deglaciation. On contrary, hypothesis (2) expects a decrease of rockfall frequency due to the dislocation of highest frost cracking activity to higher altitudes. Both hypotheses are based on assumptions which have been never tested or validated in the field. As a consequence, the future adaption of rockwall to climate change is unknown.Very few studies focus on rockfall after deglaciation on different time scales. On the Holocene time scale, rockfall is relied to increase post glaciation. The findings are based on dating and derivation of erosion rates without incorporating mechanical or thermal rockwall properties. As a result, the observed increase cannot be traced back to paraglacial adjustment or frost weathering processes. On the contrary, rock slope erosion in recently deglaciating areas can integrate mechanical and thermal rockwall properties. However, the period to establish frequency-distributions is too short to draw conclusions on potential evolution due to climate change.This approach integrates Holocene and recent rock slope erosion in one investigation. The objectives of the study are (1) to quantify the thermal regime of the rockwalls, (2) to quantify the response of mechanical regime and establish a short-term erosion rate. Furthermore, the study will (3) increase the process understanding of frost weathering and (4) quantify long-term rock slope erosion. In a space-for-time substitution approach (5) a rock slope erosion model will be developed to bridge short-term and long-term rock slope failure. Fieldwork will take place in the Hungerli Valley, Valais Alps, and in the Gaisberg Valley, Ötztal Alps. State-of-the-art geomorphological, geotechnical and geophysical methods including refraction seismic tomography, electric resistivity tomography, terrestrial laserscanning, laboratory frost-weathering simulation and Be-10 dating will be combined to address the research objectives. Expected results include the temporal and spatial distribution of permafrost and frost weathering processes, the short-term adaption of rockwalls, an increase of understanding of frost weathering processes, a frost weathering model, a rock slope erosion model bridging short- and long-term rock slope erosion and the prediction of future rock slope evolution in the context of climate change and increased deglaciation.

阿尔卑斯山的摇滚代表了人类生命的危险，但同时存在岩石斜率演变的自然过程，目前存在着解释岩石斜率的演变：（1）脱胶和随后的渐近衰落（2）稳态的速率是通过温度下降的，冰冻的面积和冰川面积的速度（1）岩壁to骨的后果是未知的。在全新世尺度上，很少有研究重点是在不同的IME尺度上进行摇摆，岩石依赖于冰川后增加冰川后。属性。一项研究中的岩石斜率侵蚀是（1）量化岩壁的热度状态，（2）量化机械状态的复兴并建立了短暂的研究（3）了解霜冻风化的理解和（4）在空间建动方法中量化长期岩石斜率（5）将在亨格利山谷，瓦莱斯阿尔卑斯山和盖斯伯格山谷中进行，并在盖斯伯格山谷进行。 - 包括折射地震三分线电阻层造影术，陆地激光扫描，实验室霜冻仿真和BE-10 CH目标的预期，对折射地震层造影，地震层次的三分立电阻率层造影和预期的结果包括长期弗罗斯特和果实适应的时间分布，将折光射击，陆地激光扫描，实验室霜冻仿真和玻璃体适应的时间，包括折射地震，地震层次，陆地上的电阻率，实验室和果实适应的结果，了解霜冻风化过程，霜冻风化模型，岩石斜坡模型在气候和增加的冰河的背景下，短期和长期的岩石斜率侵蚀桥梁桥接的岩石斜坡侵蚀以及对未来岩石斜率演变的预测。