Evolution and predictability of storm structure during extratropical transition of tropical cyclones (A04)

热带气旋温带过渡过程中风暴结构的演变及可预测性（A04）

• 批准号: 280671822
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre
• 依托单位国家: 德国
• 项目类别: CRC/Transregios
• 财政年份: 2015
• 资助国家: 德国
• 起止时间: 2014-12-31 至 2018-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gepris.dfg.de/gepris/projekt/280671822?language=en
• 关键词: Evolution; predictability; storm; structure; during

The upscale growth of forecast uncertainty from the convection in the inner core of a tropical cyclone to the storm-scale structure will be investigated, with a special focus on interactions of environmental air with inner-core convection and of the cyclone with the upstream trough. Ensembles of convection-permitting simulations will be performed for selected cases . Based on data mining and visualization techniques, new methods will be developed to diagnose the intrusion of environmental air. Results obtained by the novel diagnostics will yield new insight into the complex dynamics of extratropical transition and the associated predictability.

将研究从热带气旋内核对流到风暴规模结构的预测不确定性的高级增长，特别关注环境空气与内核对流以及气旋与上游槽的相互作用。将对选定的情况进行允许对流模拟的集合。基于数据挖掘和可视化技术，将开发新的方法来诊断环境空气的入侵。通过新颖的诊断方法获得的结果将为温带转变的复杂动态和相关的可预测性提供新的见解。