Assessing the threats of climate change to the distribution and functional diversity of a continental freshwater fish assemblage

评估气候变化对大陆淡水鱼类群落的分布和功能多样性的威胁

• 批准号: 271252539
• 负责人: Dr. Sami Domisch
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology
• 依托单位国家: 德国
• 项目类别: Research Fellowships
• 财政年份: 2015
• 资助国家: 德国
• 起止时间: 2014-12-31 至 2015-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gepris.dfg.de/gepris/projekt/271252539?language=en
• 关键词: Assessing; threats; climate; change; distribution

Global climate change is considered a major threat for biodiversity. Freshwater ecosystems are expected to be highly vulnerable to warming climates and changing precipitation patterns, accompanied by multiple anthropogenic stressors. Due to their substantial variation in size freshwater ecosystems harbour geographically highly uneven yet often highly concentrated species richness that is exceptionally susceptible to global change: while freshwater ecosystems cover less than 1% of the Earth's surface, they contain approximately 10% of all described species. Moreover, freshwater ecosystems are fragmented habitats, and especially the combination of multiple stressors acts as a driver for a high vulnerability of species inhabiting these unique hotspots. Identifying the most diverse and susceptible locations for freshwater species for spatial conservation prioritisation is thus of high priority. Combined with trait information, the functional diversity of assemblages can be quantified and species distinctness explicitly included for conservation prioritization.The proposed project aims to undertake such an assessment addressing multiple dimensions of biodiversity in the context of climate-change impacts for a whole continental freshwater assemblage, the fish fauna of North America. With 1050 species the region is highly diverse and moreover has an exceptionally strong data situation. This will allow me to first build a solid baseline prediction and understanding of current-day fish distributions using state-of-the-art Bayesian spatial modelling approaches and newly developed high-resolution environmental layers characterizing stream conditions. These predictions combined with climate change projections scaled to the stream level will allow me to assess in detail current day vs. future centres of richness and potential changes to species geographic ranges. By extending existing trait datasets and linking it to spatial species predictions I will address basic biogeographic questions about the North American fish fauna and specifically assess the potential discrepancy between patterns of species richness and functional diversity. Finally, I will evaluate the potential changes and loss of different biodiversity facets by relating projected range changes to species functional distinctness under climate change scenarios.The proposed work will provide a first continental-scale biogeographic and explicitly spatial climate-change assessment of an important group of freshwater organisms. By applying latest spatial and environmental modelling techniques and linking in ancillary species information, it has the potential to lay a useful methodological groundwork and address several questions of general interest. Freshwater species remain notoriously understudied, and the work may offer a useful blueprint or point of comparison for other regions (e.g. European fish) or taxa.

全球气候变化被认为是生物多样性的主要威胁。淡水生态系统有望高度容易受到温暖的气候和变化的降水模式，并伴随着多种人为应激源。由于它们在大小的淡水生态系统方面存在很大的变化，因此在地理上具有高度不均匀，但通常非常浓缩的物种丰富度非常容易受到全球变化的影响：虽然淡水生态系统占地不到地球表面的1％，因此它们含有大约10％的所有描述物种。此外，淡水生态系统是零散的栖息地，尤其是多种压力源的组合是居住在这些独特的热点中的物种高脆弱性的驱动力。因此，确定最多样化和易感的淡水物种的空间保护优先级位置是很高的优先级。结合特征信息，可以量化组合的功能多样性，并明确包括以保护优先次序的物种独特性。该项目旨在进行此类评估，以解决整个大陆淡水组合的气候变化影响，以解决气候变化的影响，以实现气候变化的影响。该地区有1050种，而且具有极强的数据情况。这将使我首先使用最先进的贝叶斯空间建模方法和新开发的高分辨率环境层来构建稳固的基线预测和对当前鱼分布的理解。这些预测结合了缩放到溪流水平的气候变化预测，将使我能够详细评估当前日与未来的丰富中心和物种地理范围的潜在变化。通过扩展现有的性状数据集并将其与空间物种预测联系起来，我将解决有关北美鱼类动物区系的基本生物地理问题，并特别评估了物种丰富度和功能多样性模式之间的潜在差异。最后，我将通过将预计的范围变化与气候变化情景下的物种功能相关性联系起来，评估不同生物多样性方面的潜在变化和丧失。拟议的工作将提供首个大陆规模的生物地理学，并显式地对一个重要的淡水生物体的空间变化评估。通过应用最新的空间和环境建模技术并在辅助物种信息中链接，它有可能提出有用的方法论基础并解决一些普遍兴趣的问题。众所周知，淡水物种仍在研究，这项工作可能为其他地区（例如欧洲鱼类）或分类单元提供有用的蓝图或比较点。